Mets’ Kodai Senga to start Game 1 of NLDS vs. Phillies in a surprising move

We knew to expect drama with this NLDS matchup, and the Mets delivered on Friday.

About 24 hours before first pitch, manager Carlos Mendoza announced that Kodai Senga would start Game 1 on Saturday at Citizens Bank Park.

Senga has been injured all season, first with a right shoulder capsule strain. He was activated from the injured list on July 26 and pitched 5⅓ innings against the Braves, but reinjured himself in that outing and was placed on the injured list the next day with a left calf strain.

He spent the rest of the season at the Mets’ facility in Florida, where he gradually built back up. Mendoza did not say how stretched out Senga is or how many innings the Mets expect to get out of him.

It is a risky strategy, and a surprising one. Tylor Megill was the only Mets pitcher on full rest, so many thought he would start Game 1. But Senga pitched well against the Phillies last season in his two starts — a 1.46 ERA across 12⅓ innings with 15 strikeouts — so the Mets must think he is worth the risk.

Another reason they might be starting Senga is that he throws most of his pitches out of the zone. According to Baseball Savant, the righty posted a zone percentage of 45 in 2023, which was below league average. The Phillies will have to resist the temptation to chase.

Of course, there is a flip side to this. If Senga or his piggyback doesn’t go as long as the Mets want him to, the Mets could risk burning through their bullpen in Game 1. Mendoza announced Luis Severino as the Game 2 starter, and Sean Manaea is expected to start Game 3. If those two starters don’t give them length, the Mets could be in trouble.

We’ll have to wait and see how it plays out. If the Phillies have learned anything, it is that starting off these series strong is important, but it is equally important to keep the pressure on your opponent.

“I think this year we just have to go in and know that every day is a new day, and we can’t get too high with the highs and too low with the lows,” said catcher J.T. Realmuto. “Until the series is over, we can’t count our eggs. After we were up 2-0 against Arizona last year we felt great about it, and we didn’t finish the job. No matter what happens in the first couple of games in a series, we have to continue to push and continue to fight until the end.”

Rob Thomson announced Friday that Cristopher Sánchez will start Game 2. Sánchez’s home-and-away splits played a big role. The left-handed pitcher had a 2.21 ERA through 110 innings at home and a 5.02 ERA through 71⅔ innings on the road.

“Just looking at playing the Mets, going into Citi Field, I think it’s going to be a pretty hostile environment,” Thomson said. “And looking at Sánchez’s home-road splits, I just thought it was really the smartest thing to do.”

» READ MORE: The Phillies’ ‘longer-term bet’ on Cristopher Sanchez looked like a misstep. Then he found his pitch.

Aaron Nola will start Game 3. Nola has held the Mets to a .217/.287/.361 line across 28 starts in his career. He has a 3.28 career ERA at Citi Field, and, unlike Sánchez, Nola’s home-and-away splits aren’t as drastic.

“Aaron Nola, you probably won’t see any different type of excitement out of him pitching Game 1, 2, 3, spring training game,” Thomson said. “He’s calm, poised. He doesn’t show much emotion. But I’m sure he’s just excited to pitch in the playoffs.”

The Mets do not have a lot of left-handed relievers, but Thomson said his decision on how he will handle left field and second base will be based on who the Mets choose as a starter.

Because Senga is a righty, we could see more lefty options at those positions. Brandon Marsh could be in play for left field, and Bryson Stott for second base in Game 1. The Mets have been coy about how stretched out Senga is and who would come in after him, which makes it difficult to game plan.

» READ MORE: Zack Wheeler’s ‘poise and calmness’ will help set the tone in Phillies’ Game 1 vs. Mets in the NLDS

The Phillies will just have to be ready with contingency plans for whatever reliever the Mets throw their way.

Because the Mets’ rotation is lefty-heavy, outfielder Austin Hays, who had a .941 OPS against lefties this season, could get more playing time.

“I would think so, if that’s who they’re going to start,” Thomson said of Hays. “We don’t know their rotation, but there’s going to be at least two left-handed starters, I would think. Yeah, he’s going to get playing time.”

Thomson said Jeff Hoffman, who said he had a stiff neck entering Wednesday’s intrasquad game, is feeling better. He threw a bullpen on Friday and is “good to go.” Johan Rojas, who was away from the team for a few days with an illness, also is feeling better.

“Everyone is healthy,” Thomson said. “Knock on wood.”

» READ MORE: The Phillies’ record this season in each uniform, from worst to best

MLB announced the game times and broadcast information for the rest of the NLDS on Friday evening. Game 3 will be at 5:08 p.m., while Games 4 and 5, if necessary, will be at 5:08 p.m. and 4:08 p.m., respectively. All three games will be broadcast on FS1. Game times are subject to change.