Rob Thomson, Nick Castellanos, Ranger Suárez: The Phillies with the most to lose and gain in the playoffs

No team stays static year-to-year, no matter how successful it is. That will be true of this Phillies team, as generally beloved as its components are.

So which members have the most to lose and gain?

» READ MORE: When Aaron Nola won the game that clinched the Phillies’ first NL East title in 13 years, it was fitting

A quirky but sincere personage, Casty has a .744 OPS in three full seasons as a Phillie, more than 100 points lower than his six combined seasons before arriving on a five-year, $100 million deal.

Much worse, he’s a .196 hitter with a .632 OPS in 30 playoff games with the Phillies; hit .125 in the 2022 World Series; and .042 (1-for-24, 11 strikeouts) against the Diamondbacks in the 2023 National League Championship Series. When the lights get brightest, Castellanos goes dark.

He’s made himself into a competent right fielder with the knack for getting a big hit, at least in the regular season. He’s not made himself into a $20 million-a-year middle-of-the-lineup slugger. If he tanks again this October, then the Phillies have to try to move him. Maybe another team that needs a right-handed bat and already has a designated hitter might be able to get more value out of him than the Phillies have gotten.

On the other hand, if Casty has a big postseason, his value to the Phillies in relation to his salary skyrockets.

Left-handed and cold-blooded, Suárez made the All-Star team in 2024, the pinnacle of his star-crossed career. Last year, he missed the first six weeks and half of August with elbow and hamstring injuries. This year, he might have been baseball’s best pitcher early: He went 10-2 with a 1.83 ERA in his first 16 starts. Then his back started to hurt, and he might have become baseball’s worst pitcher: 2-6 with a 6.54 ERA in his last 11 starts.

He has a final year of arbitration next season, which should land him in the $9 million range, and is a free agent in 2026. The Phillies have invested about $300 million in Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, bought out Cristopher Sánchez’s arbitration for $22.5 million, and still owe free-agent bust Taijuan Walker $36 million for the next two seasons.

Suárez somehow pitched his way onto the NLDS roster with a 21-pitch outing Wednesday in a simulated game. How he fares in Game 4 of the NLDS not only could determine his fate as these playoffs progress, but might also determine his fate as a future Phillie. Like Castellanos, Suárez, 29, might never be a more valuable trade piece.

Nobody in the organization has done a better job with less credit and more criticism than the manager. If it was up to me, I’d ask Bryce Harper’s permission (all the big decisions go through Harp) and lock down “Topper” for the next five years.

Thomson made himself an easy target when he pulled Wheeler in Game 6 of the 2023 World Series, then kept pitching rookie Orion Kerkering and exhausted closer Craig Kimbrel in the 2023 NLCS, but those might have been the best options; another discussion for another day.

Under Thomson, the team keeps getting better during the regular season. Thomson led them to 87 wins and a road wild-card berth in 2022, to 90 wins and a home wild-card berth in 2023, 95 wins, and to the No. 2 seed in the NL and the accompanying first-round bye this year.

But what if they keep doing worse in the postseason? What if the Mets beat them in the NLDS?

The Phillies’ window to win is three more years, because that’s how long Wheeler says he wants to pitch. Phillies president Dave Dombrowski will be 71 three years from now. Phillies owner John Middleton will be 72. How long do you think they want to wait? They can’t change the roster. They can change the skipper.

Don’t forget: Dombrowski did not hire Thomson; at least, not initially. Thomson was hired before the 2018 season by then-president Andy MacPhail to be Gabe Kapler’s bench coach, was retained as bench coach when MacPhail hired Joe Girardi to replace Kapler in October 2020. Dombrowski was hired in December 2020, so he inherited Girardi and Thomson. By 2022, Thomson, a career bench coach, was poised to retire, but the Phillies canned Girardi in June and promoted Thomson, who led the Phillies to the playoffs for the first time in a decade and earned the right to take the “interim” off his title. He got a two-year deal, then an extension last December. However, he’s a lame duck in 2025.

» READ MORE: Phillies vs. Mets for the first time in the playoffs: Our predictions for the NLDS

For the moment.

That surely will change if the Phillies beat the Mets in the NLDS. He’ll get a long-term deal if they win the NLCS.

And if they win neither?

You’ll have a manager on a mildly hot seat.