Phillies pay a high price but get a player in Michael Lorenzen who fills a big role

He did what he needed to do. He paid what he needed to pay in order to get it done.

Those are two separate decisions. Each warrants separate consideration. Together, they form two equal parts of a question that will define Dave Dombrowski’s decision-making at this year’s trade deadline.

Did the Phillies really need a pitcher bad enough to warrant trading away one of their better hitting prospects?

» READ MORE: Phillies acquire pitcher Michael Lorenzen and infielder Rodolfo Castro at the trade deadline

The first variable is less debatable than the second. A lot less. Dombrowski has seen enough stretch runs to recognize the warning signs in his pitching staff. The overall numbers may say that everything is fine, but trouble has been bubbling beneath the surface.

Ranger Suárez has seen a worrisome spike in his home run and walk rate to go with the 6.11 ERA he has posted over his last five starts. Aaron Nola is on pace for another career-high in innings even as he struggles to shake off the aftereffects of last year’s marathon campaign. One relief ace is hurt. Another hasn’t looked right all year.

In Michael Lorenzen, Dombrowski, the Phillies’ president of baseball operations, found a pitcher with the potential to address all of those concerns. A 31-year-old righty with a good fastball and plenty of experience pitching in tough ballparks, Lorenzen spent four seasons as a work-horse reliever capable of pitching high-leverage innings in multiples. Over the last year and a half, he has established himself as a viable starter, logging a 3.90 ERA in 203⅓ innings over 36 starts for the Angels and Tigers. That includes an impressive last month and a half in Detroit, where he has a 2.50 ERA with 36 strikeouts, 12 walks and just one home run allowed in 39⅔ innings over his last seven starts.

“I’ve always thought that it’s not only the best, but the healthiest pitchers once you get to the postseason,” Dombrowski said on Tuesday after the 6 p.m. deadline for MLB teams to add players to their roster who will be eligible for the postseason. “Our guys have thrown a lot of innings over the last couple of years. To me, the depth behind our big five guys. . .we didn’t feel was as deep if something happened to someone. Someone like Lorenzen really changes that. We really thought we needed to get somebody else to protect us.

“Plus, you usually win with pitching.”

Lorenzen is going to help. The only question is where. The Phillies are looking at Lorenzen as a starter, as they should. The immediate plan is to go with a six-man rotation, but don’t be surprised if that quickly morphs into a more match-up based hybrid. A lot depends on Suárez. After a brilliant June in which he logged five starts of six-plus innings and one or fewer runs allowed, the lovable lefty has given up five home runs and 13 walks in 28 innings over his last five starts going into Tuesday’s game against the Marlins. He has limited the damage, finishing at least five innings in each of those starts. And he allowed one earned run in 6⅓ innings on Tuesday. But it’s a concerning enough turn for the worse to wonder, especially given the elbow problem that cost him the first month of the season.

Lorenzen is the ideal insurance policy, especially given the potential he has as a reliever. From 2016 to 2019, he was a fixture in the Reds bullpen, averaging 74 innings a season while posting a 3.39 ERA and excellent rate stats ( 8.1 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and 0.9 HR/9). That includes a 2019 season in which he saved seven games.

The ideal world would see Suárez emerge from his rough patch and Cristopher Sánchez continue to pitch well, which would free up Lorenzen to attempt to replace some of the production the Phillies have missed with José Alvarado and Seranthony Domínguez suffering through injury-plagued seasons. This is the kind of move that could look increasingly smart as the postseason draws near.

The real question is the cost. In return for Lorenzen, the Phillies sent the Tigers Hao-Yu Lee, a 20-year-old prospect they signed out of Taiwan for $500,000 two years ago. Ranked by Fangraphs as the No. 6 prospect in the organization, Lee is still very much at the beginning of his journey to the majors. But his bat-to-ball skills have earned a lot of fans within the organization. The two big questions are power and infield defense. Alas, those are the two defining questions, in a lot of ways.

» READ MORE: The trade deadline won’t save the Phillies. Trea Turner and the rest must do it themselves.

Mickey Moniak has become the poster boy for trade deadline risk, given the power production he has provided the Angels since the Phillies shipped him to Anaheim in exchange for Noah Syndergaard last year. The better case study is Ben Brown. He’s the prospect the Phillies shipped to the Cubs in exchange for reliever David Robertson last July.

-A 33rdround draft pick by the Phillies in 2017, he’d spent four mostly unimpressive years in the minors before opening some eyes in 2022, with Baseball America ranking him as the No. 7 prospect in the organization at the time of the trade.

A year later, Brown’s breakout has continued in Chicago, with FanGraphs ranking him as the best pitching prospect in the Cubs’ system. His double A numbers were the kind of thing you dream of: 11 starts, 51 innings, a 2.65 ERA, and sparkling averages of 13.1 strikeouts, 3.4 walks and 0.7 home runs per nine innings. Those numbers have regressed since his promotion to triple A. Still, hindsight leaves little doubt about the do-over.

As good as Robertson was for the Cubs, Lorenzen has a chance to provide much more value in the form of innings. If the Phillies were going to give up a hitter like Lee for a rental, a guy like Lorenzen is the kind that makes sense.

Time will tell.