Data-driven Phillies’ first-round pick could be another college hitter

The baseball draft, for years, was predicated on chance. Major-league teams -- even those with analytically-inclined front offices -- had to rely solely on eye tests to make their selections.

Data for college players, unlike at the major-league level, was limited. A front office would read the reports their scouts filed, look over a player’s measurements, check his stats, and take its best chance. The draft, which begins Monday, has finally caught up.

More front offices are beginning to zero in on college players at the top of the draft instead of high school players as more college programs begin to implement data tracking tools -- similar to ones used across Major League Baseball -- at their home stadiums. Teams, including the Phillies, are able to mine a college player’s exit velocity, launch angle, spin rate, and other measurements.

The Phillies’ director of amateur scouting, Johnny Almaraz, said that information is then added to the information the team already has from the scouts on the road. The picture becomes a bit clearer and the odds in the game of chance get lower.

“You have data on every single thing,” Almaraz said. “You’re able to put it on top of the major-league data. So our guys do a really good job in Research and Development and in the analytics department to bring in all of that information to me, so we tighten things up and make easier decisions come draft time in relation to the amateur players in comparison to the big-league players.”

The Phillies have selected a college hitter (Virginia’s Adam Haseley in 2017 and Wichita State’s Alec Bohm in 2018) with their last two first-round picks. They knew almost everything about both players before selecting them, and the early results are promising. Haseley arrived Wednesday in triple A and Bohm is nearing a double-A promotion.

They have the 14th pick in Monday night’s draft and it seems like there’s a good chance that the data-driven Phillies will select a college position player in the first round for the third straight year. Missouri outfielder Kameron Misner, Texas Tech third baseman Josh Jung, UNLV shortstop Bryson Stout, and Arizona State outfielder Hunter Bishop could be names that interest the Phillies.

“I’m a big believer in taking position players because you have a better chance of developing a position player over time,” Almaraz said. “With pitchers, you guys know that if they blow up then you have nothing. I will never take a position player over a pitcher if that pitcher has a chance to be a No. 2 starter. If we’re looking at a guy who’s going to be at the front end of the rotation and we think the guy’s going to be a regular average major-league player, I’m taking the pitcher.”

The Phillies will pick just once on Monday’s first day as they forfeited their second-round pick as compensation for signing Bryce Harper. Their second selection will come at No. 91 with the 13th pick in Tuesday’s third round.

“My philosophy has always been to take the best player,” Almaraz said. “What’s happened over the past couple of years is that there’s more college players available than high school. Even this year, look at the high-school position player prospects who are under first-round consideration and there’s just a handful. With that being said, we have a tendency to focus more on the college players just because there are more of them who are polished and more advanced.”

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