Weighing the choices facing the Phillies as the MLB draft approaches

Twenty years ago, the last time the Phillies held the 17th pick in the draft, Cole Hamels slipped past the midpoint of the first round because of an arm injury that spooked several teams. The Phillies chose him and, well, the gamble paid off about as much as it possibly could have.

A similar situation may arise this year.

As scouting director Brian Barber and his army of talent evaluators finalized the Phillies’ board this week in advance of the 20-round, three-day draft that begins Sunday night, they faced a few realities. This draft class is heavy on top-ranked position players, most of whom will be gone before the Phillies pick. And injuries have decimated the pitching ranks.

It isn’t only Kumar Rocker, who was drafted 10th overall by the New York Mets last summer, did not sign, had shoulder surgery, and recently made five starts for an independent league team in what amounted to a pre-draft showcase. At least a half-dozen top college pitchers and a few touted high schoolers recently had elbow ligament reconstructions.

» READ MORE: Phillies’ next ‘dominant duo’? Mick Abel and Andrew Painter poised to climb the ranks together

Never mind finding the next Tommy John. A team would do well just to find a pitcher who hasn’t had Tommy John surgery.

“We’re discussing that with a few different guys in the room right now — where would this guy have gone if he was healthy, or where do we think this guy would’ve gone?” Barber said. “We’re not necessarily going to shy away from them, but we’re also aware of the hurdles that they have to overcome as they get healthy and add that into our ranking of the player.”

This draft will mark Barber’s third since the Phillies hired him away from the New York Yankees to run the scouting department. He’s highly respected by rivals and especially within the team’s hierarchy. Barber’s arrival predates president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski’s, but Dombrowski raves about Barber and trusts his evaluations.

The Phillies spent their last two first-round picks on high school pitchers, the demographic that involves the most projection and typically the most risk. But the early returns on towering right-handers Mick Abel and Andrew Painter are positive. Abel, the 15th overall pick in 2020, has 143 strikeouts in 110⅔ innings in A-ball; Painter, the 13th overall pick last year, has a 1.54 ERA and 91 strikeouts in 52⅔ innings over 16 career starts.

It’s a departure from the previous regime. Under Andy MacPhail and Matt Klentak, the Phillies selected a position player in the first round in four consecutive years: Mickey Moniak (2016), Adam Haseley (2017), Alec Bohm (2018), and Bryson Stott (2019). But as Dombrowski has strived to streamline the organization’s various departments, the Phillies have gotten better at both scouting and developing young pitchers.

The best example may be Griff McGarry, who has emerged on the prospect map this season, zooming to double-A Reading. He walked 8.8 batters per nine innings in four years at the University of Virginia, but the Phillies drafted him in the fifth round last year because their scouts saw adjustments in his delivery that their instructors believed they could build on to improve his command.

» READ MORE: Revisiting the Phillies’ missteps in the Mickey Moniak draft class | Scott Lauber

“One of the things we’ve really tried to stress over the last couple years is much better unity and trying to bring scouting to work with player development,” Barber said. “You have to discuss what we think we do really well in player development and the things that everybody is still struggling with and what you think [scouting] can help.”

It’s possible the Phillies go the pitching route again, perhaps even another high school arm. Left-hander Brandon Barriera throws in the upper 90s with two breaking pitches and cut short his season at American Heritage High in Plantation, Fla., to assure he would be healthy entering the draft. If he’s still available at No. 17, he could be the pick.

But would the Phillies go for, say, high school right-hander Dylan Lesko or Alabama lefty Connor Prielipp, both of whom had Tommy John elbow surgery? How about Rocker, the most well-known prospect in the draft for reasons that go beyond his linebacker body (6-foot-5, 245 pounds), 98-mph heater, and freeze-frame curveball?

“If the right player was there that we thought was going to go fifth overall and he happens to be sitting there at 17,” Barber said, “then I think we’ll be in the mix there.”

There are other considerations. The Phillies forfeited their second-round pick in March as compensation for signing Nick Castellanos. Does it make sense to be more conservative in the first round because they won’t pick again until No. 93 overall?

Not necessarily, said Barber, who cited the 2020 draft, when they took Abel despite not picking again until No. 87.

“I’m not sure that it changes anything, really,” Barber said. “You’d like to say that you want to be a little bit more for-sure of who you’re going to get based on the fact that you don’t pick again until 93. But I just don’t want to miss on the right player, either, if he’s sitting there at 17 and he might come with a little bit more risk.”

» READ MORE: Polarizing prospect Kumar Rocker is back on the MLB draft radar. Does that include the Phillies?

Hamels was risky in 2002, after breaking a bone in his arm. He wound up winning 114 regular-season games and seven more in the playoffs over 10 years with the Phillies and being named World Series MVP in 2008.

The Phillies could go in several directions this year. But Barber’s philosophy, whether it’s drafting a high school pitcher in the first round or taking a chance on a college pitcher with control problems, is to not rule anything out.

“If other teams want to shy away from really good, talented players because they don’t come from the right demographic,” Barber said, “we’ll be there to take them and swallow them up.”