Who would you rather sign, Aaron Nola or Blake Snell? We asked scouts around MLB.

Last year, the Phillies charged into the offseason with a clear-eyed view of their biggest need and a strong preference for how to fill it. They targeted Trea Turner in a starry crop of free-agent shortstops, hurled $300 million at him, and planned a festive news conference.

It all seemed so simple.

But it’s worth remembering that the Phillies got outbid for Turner, with the Padres offering $42 million more. In a rare instance of a player’s leaving money on the table, Turner signed here because he wanted to play on the East Coast — close to his wife’s family in New Jersey, specifically — and liked the idea of a reunion with Bryce Harper.

» READ MORE: Will the Phillies bring back Aaron Nola? Here are the teams that could be threats to their chances.

It’s relevant now because the Phillies’ offseason direction is as focused as it was a year ago. Their most pressing need is a top-tier starting pitcher, preferably Aaron Nola. But in a hyper-competitive market, they can’t be certain that their best offer will satisfy the homegrown 30-year-old righty — or that he would take less money to stay.

So, although the Phillies maintain that bringing back Nola is their “priority,” to use president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski’s word, they are also exploring alternatives, just like last year when they met with Turner alternatives Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, and Dansby Swanson.

Predictably, reports have linked the Phillies to every notable free-agent starter, including Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, and Eduardo Rodriguez. Each represents an intriguing Plan B, C, or D, and the Phillies are kicking around their respective pros and cons.

The Phillies have also scouted Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the 25-year-old righty and three-time recipient of Japan’s equivalent of the Cy Young Award. They have serious interest. But they have never signed a player from Nippon Professional Baseball. Industry insiders are also predicting Yamamoto could net the winter’s second-largest free-agent deal after Shohei Ohtani, perhaps in excess of $200 million.

All of which leads us to the most decorated pitcher on the market: Blake Snell.

In case you missed it this past week, Snell captured his second Cy Young and became the seventh pitcher to win the award in both leagues. (The others: Gaylord Perry, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martínez, Roy Halladay, and Max Scherzer). The lefty got 28 of 30 first-place votes after leading the National League with a 2.25 ERA for the Padres, including a 1.20 mark over his last 23 starts.

» READ MORE: What is the Phillies’ backup plan if Aaron Nola leaves? Here are a few trade options.

But for all of Snell’s talent, multiple scouts noted this week that he isn’t necessarily a Nola substitute. Because while Nola pounds the strike zone and eats innings like Pac-Man chomps power pellets, Snell’s exceeding walk rate and average of five innings per start make him the polar opposite.

The Inquirer polled talent evaluators from five NL teams, asking if they would rather have Snell or Nola. All five picked Nola.

“As much as I like Snell’s stuff, I’d take Nola,” a scout from an NL West team said. “Love Nola’s pitchability and grit. Snell’s stuff might grade a little higher, but love the grinder in Nola.”

Said a scout from another NL West team: “I’m a Nola fan over Snell. He’s been so consistent. The other guy has more arm strength, but the high walks and inconsistency bothers me.”

Nola, who will turn 31 next season and is six months younger than Snell, is known for precise command, even when he struggles. Take this season. Despite allowing a career-high 32 homers and posting a 4.46 ERA, he had a 5.7% walk rate and ranked sixth in the NL with 2.09 walks per nine innings.

Contrast that with Snell’s league-leading 99 walks and 13.3% walk rate, which surpassed even his 11% career mark.

“Me and [Padres pitching coach] Ruben [Niebla] throughout the year were like, the walks don’t matter,” Snell said on a Cy Young conference call. “It was like, ‘If you walk a guy, who cares? Let’s get the next guy. You’ve got nasty stuff. Believe in it and attack the zone, you’re going to be fine.’”

» READ MORE: The Phillies’ tendency to chase bad pitches led to their NLCS collapse. Do they need to change the mix?

Easy to say if you throw a mid-90s heater with a wipeout curveball and changeup. And Snell overcame his lack of control this year by holding teams to a .152/.251/.219 batting line with runners in scoring position.

But that’s a tough way to succeed, as much as Snell embraces it.

There’s a bigger difference between Snell and Nola, summed up in one word by an evaluator from an NL East team: “Reliability.”

Few pitchers actually pitch more than Nola. Since 2018, he leads the majors in starts (175) and is second to Yankees ace Gerrit Cole in innings (1,065⅓) and total pitches (16,789).

And when Nola takes the ball, he doesn’t give it up easily. Among starters, only the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara has thrown more pitches in the seventh inning or later since 2018.

Snell, meanwhile, started the seventh inning in three of 32 starts last season. He has completed seven innings 23 times in 191 career starts. He embodies the modern starter, getting through the middle innings before yielding to the bullpen.

It’s likely a product of how Snell came up with the analytics-driven Rays, who helped popularize the usage of openers and don’t often allow starters to face a lineup three times. They infamously pulled Snell from Game 6 of the 2020 World Series despite his allowing one run in 5⅓ innings and throwing 73 pitches.

» READ MORE: Staying at first base shows Bryce Harper’s commitment to Phillies — and an expectation they will pay him back

But teams that are chasing Nola, including the Phillies, presumably put more of a premium on high-volume starters who offer quantity as much as quality.

The Phillies went deeper in the playoffs than the 100-win Braves and Dodgers because of rotation health and stability. If they lose Nola, they must replace his workload as much as his 3.72 career ERA, especially with ace Zack Wheeler eligible for free agency after next season and top prospect Andrew Painter sidelined until 2025 after Tommy John elbow surgery.

“Taking the ball every start and pitching the amount of innings that Nola does is severely underrated,” a scout from an NL Central club said. “The cumulative effect of starters bailing out of starts early, or shorter leashes on starting pitchers and having to rely on lesser relievers, puts so much stress on an organization that analytics at times misses.”

Especially if rosters are eventually capped at 12 pitchers, an idea floated by commissioner Rob Manfred to compel teams to lean more heavily on starters again. If enacted, one scout said the 12-pitcher limit would be “a major plus in Nola’s favor.”

“It’s one of the trickiest free-agent scenarios,” said the NL West scout who described himself as a Nola fan. “The modern pitchers are timebombs to injuries. It’s inevitable, it seems, and the [contract] length is scary.”

» READ MORE: Stay or Go: Which Phillies should be back? See our picks and cast your votes.

By comparison, Snell has logged 992⅔ innings, an odometer reading that may be more comfortable for teams that are mulling a six- or seven-year contract offer. But a third NL West scout noted that Snell has averaged almost as many pitches per start (91.8) as Nola (95.2) despite the gap in innings, an indication of his inefficiency.

“I do think it’s pretty telling that Snell won another Cy Young, had a phenomenal year,” the NL Central scout said, “and isn’t really being mentioned in the same way like other [marquee] starters in previous offseasons have been.”

It’s all relative. But Snell doesn’t lack suitors, and warts aside, he’s going to land a megacontract. Based on his electric stuff and Cy Young ceiling, he will be viewed by some teams as the best starter on the market. Full stop. And maybe he is.

But if the Phillies wind up losing Nola, Snell isn’t necessarily the answer to replace him.