Three Phillies postseason questions to ponder as they root for chaos in the NL playoff field

If you’re the Phillies, and you’re toting the twin prizes of a division title and a wild-card series bye around Washington this weekend, there’s only one thing left to root for.

Chaos.

Behold, then, Hurricane Helene. Because nothing throws a playoff race into abject disorder like a nasty old storm. The rain reached Atlanta on Wednesday, stuck around Thursday, and forced the postponement of two games between the Mets and Braves, who are duking it out for a National League wild card.

» READ MORE: Bryce Harper knows the Phillies’ time is now. But he also believes their window isn’t close to shutting.

So, the teams probably will have to reconvene Monday — one day after the regular season was scheduled to end; one day before the postseason will begin — to play a doubleheader, maybe for all the wild-card marbles.

Picture this: After three games in Milwaukee this weekend, the Mets return to Atlanta for 18 innings. They eke into the playoffs, fly back to Milwaukee — or out to San Diego (gulp) — for a wild-card series that opens Tuesday. They play two, maybe three games in three days and advance to Game 1 of the division series next Saturday in South Philly.

How’s that for chaos?

And the Phillies will be prying spectators, like those memes of someone eating popcorn while drama unfolds before them. But they also must sort out a few items of their own. With three games left in the season, three thoughts on the playoffs ahead:

If the Phillies hold an edge over a wide-open NL playoff field, it’s this: Their starters lead the league in innings (889⅔) and quality starts (79).

Will manager Rob Thomson leverage that advantage in October?

Thomson used the bullpen earlier and more often in the last two postseasons. Aaron Nola, for instance, went at least seven innings in 25 of 64 regular-season starts in 2022 and ’23 but only once in nine playoff starts. Zack Wheeler infamously was lifted with one out in the sixth inning of Game 6 of the 2022 World Series.

» READ MORE: How the Phillies’ path to a World Series is shaping up in a wide open National League playoff field

“In the postseason, you’re reading the game a little more, so you’re a little quicker on the trigger,” pitching coach Caleb Cotham said recently. “You don’t want to be too late. There’s times where we’ve been a little late or we’ve maybe been a little too early. You’re maybe slightly more aggressive because we’re just trying to make decisions to win the game.”

Cotham drew a contrast to the regular season, when considerations are made for “tomorrow, the next day, a week from now.” In the playoffs, it’s all about winning the game at hand. Pitching moves tend to get made accordingly.

So after using the bullpen for 37.7% of the innings in the regular season last year, Thomson leaned on it for 41.5% in the playoffs. In 2022, Phillies relievers accounted for 38% of the innings in the regular season, 46.7% in the playoffs.

But the Phillies were at their best this season when the starters went as deep as possible. At one point, they won 34 consecutive games in which the starter completed at least seven innings, the second-longest streak in major league history.

In some ways, then, the playoffs will test Thomson’s fortitude. If Wheeler and Nola are cruising, will he have the stomach to stick with them through the middle innings? Will breakout lefty Cristopher Sánchez, seventh among NL pitchers in innings (Nola and Wheeler are second and third), be allowed to face a batting order three times?

» READ MORE: Stock check of the Phillies’ top five relievers: How each is shaping up for a World Series run

“I think you manage it the same way,” Thomson said. “The reason they’re going seven innings is because they’re pitching good.”

But?

“If [a starter] is through six or through five, and there’s a huge pocket [of hitters] coming and he’s at 85 pitches, we may get him out,” Thomson said. “I think it depends on the matchup. We do have the [relievers] to [be aggressive].”

While the wild-card round rages, the conversation locally will focus on whether the Phillies’ hitters in particular can stay sharp amid a five-day layoff that’s rivaled only by the All-Star break.

Speaking of which ...

When the Phillies came back from the break in July, they dropped two games in a row in Pittsburgh. They scored seven runs but struck out 11 times in the first game, then were held to four hits in the second. Last season, they struck out 12 times and lost the first game after the break before reeling off four consecutive wins.

» READ MORE: Does batting .300 matter anymore? Trea Turner thinks it does. Why is it becoming increasingly rare?

“Obviously, we’ve still got to stay in shape and do the things we can,” Bryce Harper said this week. “Kind of take a page out of Houston’s book. They’ve done it the last couple years. They’ve been able to do it.”

Indeed, while the Dodgers and Braves got tripped up by the bye last season and in 2022, the Astros were undeterred. It might’ve helped last year that they didn’t win the AL West until the final day of the season. But after taking one day off, they went through a light workout, then two days of live batting practice before the standard workout on the eve of the division series.

The Phillies directed several triple-A players to stick around after their season ended Sunday and have discussed bringing them to Citizens Bank Park for intrasquad games and to give the hitters a look at live pitching.

“I’m not buying into that bye teams don’t have as good an opportunity to go deeper in the playoffs,” Thomson said. “I think it’s just been coincidence, to tell the truth.”

Eleven pitchers are locks for the division series roster: starters Wheeler, Nola, Sánchez, and Ranger Suárez; relievers Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Carlos Estévez, José Alvarado, Orion Kerkering, Tanner Banks, and José Ruiz.

But who’s No. 12?

It’s an end-of-the-roster problem. But in the playoffs, teams must prepare for all potential situations, including extra innings. And without the automatic runner on second base, the chances of a marathon game — and the need for a long reliever in the bullpen — become greater.

» READ MORE: Should the Phillies be worried about struggling Ranger Suárez?

Last year, the Phillies carried Michael Lorenzen and Taijuan Walker as break-glass-in-case-of-13-innings relievers. In 2022, Kyle Gibson and Bailey Falter filled that role. But the Phillies’ current long-man options were whittled down by Walker’s 7.10 ERA (the worst mark by a Phillies pitcher with at least 80 innings in a season since 1930), Turnbull’s three-month absence with a shoulder strain, and a lack of rotation depth at triple A.

Turnbull pitched two innings Sunday in triple A, his first game action since late June. He’s scheduled to throw batting practice Friday in Lehigh Valley. But it seems like pie in the sky for him to be ready for the division series.

Other options include Kolby Allard, Tyler Gilbert, or Max Lazar, who isn’t on the active roster.

There’s always Walker, if the Phillies dare. It’s doubtful they will.

» READ MORE: Murphy: Let’s go ... D-backs? And ... Dodgers? Weird week looms as Phillies eye playoff matchups