Zack Wheeler throws upbeat bullpen session, plus other Phillies story lines over next three weeks

MIAMI — Quick, jot down this number: 19.

Got it? OK, now keep it handy. You may need to reference it often over the next three weeks. Because as play began Tuesday night, any combination of Phillies wins and Milwaukee Brewers losses totaling 19 would result in the Phillies clinching their first postseason berth since 2011.

Surely, you don’t want to miss that.

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The odds are in the Phillies’ favor. If they go 11-11 down the stretch — a modest expectation with 10 games left against the Miami Marlins, Chicago Cubs, and worst-in-baseball Washington Nationals entering Tuesday’s play — the Brewers would have to finish 15-6 to overtake them.

But beyond merely locking down the playoff spot that has eluded them for a decade, the Phillies have questions that may determine how long they can stick around in the October tournament. Among them:

How does next Tuesday night sound?

There’s optimism within Phillies ranks that Zack Wheeler (elbow inflammation) may be ready to start the opener of the final homestand of the season against the Toronto Blue Jays. Then again, team officials thought initially that he would miss two starts. Tuesday night marked the fourth time the rotation turned without him.

A critical week for Wheeler began with 30 pitches off the bullpen mound Tuesday. He threw all of his pitches, including curveballs, and was upbeat after the session.

“It went well,” interim manager Rob Thomson said. “I don’t know any velocities or anything, but it looked like it was coming out of his hand really well. Location looked really good. Worked out of the stretch.”

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Having checked each of those boxes, Wheeler will get back on a mound Friday in Atlanta. He will throw either a bullpen session with a simulated between-innings break or possibly face hitters in a batting practice setting, according to Thomson.

If that goes well, next Tuesday night at home against the Blue Jays is in play. If returning without making a minor league start sounds aggressive, don’t forget that Wheeler didn’t miss a start in April despite not pitching in a spring training game.

And if he returns early next week, he would have three starts to build back his arm strength and stamina for six- or seven-inning starts in the playoffs.

But in Wheeler’s absence, lefty Bailey Falter was 3-0 with a 3.06 ERA entering Tuesday night against the Marlins. So, as much as the Phillies need Wheeler back, they will take care that he isn’t compromised when he does return.

Castellanos was first eligible to come off the injured list Tuesday. It didn’t happen because, well, it was never going to happen. Strained oblique (side) muscles tend to linger, especially given the rotational stress on baseball players.

But Castellanos is making progress. He has resumed swinging a bat, hitting off a tee, and taking soft tosses. He also has been doing fundamentals in right field to further test his mobility.

Don’t expect Castellanos to return this week, Thomson said, noting the Phillies haven’t ruled out a brief triple-A assignment. It has been a disappointing first season with the Phillies for Castellanos, but the $100 million slugger was starting to heat up, batting .293/.327/.495 with five homers in his last 104 plate appearances before getting injured.

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Bryce Harper is limited to being a designated hitter because of a torn ligament in his right elbow, so Matt Vierling, utility infielder Nick Maton, and newly recalled Dalton Guthrie have split time in right field in Castellanos’ absence.

Vierling is a lock to make the postseason roster. But if Castellanos is limited, it may open a spot for Maton or even Guthrie as a late-game replacement in right field.

We know what you’re thinking: After 10 years, what’s the rush? But there’s good reason for expedience in clinching.

Unless they sweep seven remaining games with the Atlanta Braves, the Phillies are locked into the second or third wild card, which would make them the No. 5 or 6 seed in the National League playoff field.

There’s really no difference. In either case, they would be on the road for a best-of-three first-round series. They might even be better off as the No. 6 seed because it would keep them out of the top-seeded Los Angeles Dodgers’ half of the NL bracket. And the 97-43 Dodgers are a juggernaut.

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It would behoove the Phillies, then, to clinch before the season’s final series in Houston, and line up their pitching for the playoffs.

Team officials believe they would be dangerous with Wheeler and Aaron Nola starting Games 1 and 2 of a short series. The Phillies would seem less formidable if it’s, say, Ranger Suárez and Kyle Gibson.