Phillies takeaways as the trade deadline looms: Fortifying the bullpen, assessing Johan Rojas, and more

In the offseason, after excising Craig Kimbrel but before leaving the rest of the 2023 bullpen untouched, the Phillies tried to sign two free-agent relievers.

But Jordan Hicks took the Giants’ offer to be a starter.

And Robert Stephenson stayed home with the Angels.

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Unable to land either target, Dave Dombrowski made a calculation, as multiple sources recounted. The Phillies would keep their powder dry and watch the bullpen evolve. And if they needed reinforcements, they could make a more aggressive trade before the July 30 deadline.

Well, here they are.

It’s instructive to revisit the Phillies’ bullpen-building strategy not as a second-guess but rather a hint of what they will aim to do before 6 p.m. Tuesday. Because they were inclined in January to augment their late-inning mix with a hard thrower, an instinct that remains a top objective six months later.

Rob Thomson runs the Phillies’ bullpen without assigning specific roles. The manager also leans more on the relievers in the postseason. Last year, they logged 37.7% of the regular-season innings, then took down 14⅓ of 35 innings (40%) in the divisional round and 25⅔ of 61⅓ innings (41.2%) in the NL Championship Series.

Jeff Hoffman and lefty Matt Strahm are having All-Star seasons. Left-hander José Alvarado and Orion Kerkering remain in Thomson’s circle of trust, although both are struggling lately. Kerkering, in particular, has walked three batters and hit two in his last two games after going 48 batters without issuing a walk.

“He’s got good enough stuff. He’s got to throw the ball through the zone,” Thomson said. “He’s got to attack hitters. You’ve got to believe in your stuff and go after people.”

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But even if Alvarado and Kerkering get back on track, the Phillies must deepen their late-inning group. Gregory Soto was pitching well before flubbing higher-leverage chances this week in Minnesota; Seranthony Domínguez has fallen out of the mix based on his recent usage.

Even after dropping six of the last nine games, the Phillies still have the best record in baseball and a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. Any move they make will be with October in mind.

It’s worth asking, then: Who do they envision on the mound to get the last out of a playoff series?

Maybe Hoffman. Or a starter making a closing cameo, à la Ranger Suárez in the 2022 NLCS. But maybe it’s the Angels’ Carlos Estévez, the Nationals’ Kyle Finnegan, or Marlins lefty Tanner Scott, all of whom have piqued the Phillies’ interest, according to sources, six months after they came up empty on Hicks and Stephenson.

Johan Rojas has started 16 of 19 games in center field since coming back from triple A and batted .216/.259/.294 with two extra-base hits and 16 strikeouts in 55 plate appearances.

So, no, the Phillies haven’t called off the search for outfield help.

It’s a seller’s market. The Dodgers, Braves, Mariners, and Royals also are outfield-needy contenders. The White Sox will set a high price, then, for oft-injured center fielder Luis Robert Jr., and if they don’t get it, they could hold him until the offseason. It’s unclear whether the Rays will deal Randy Arozarena — and his 1.104 OPS in 33 postseason games.

» READ MORE: The Phillies want a platoon partner for Brandon Marsh. Here are six trade candidates who could fill the need.

The Phillies have the most complete roster in baseball, so if they’re going to trade from their prospect stable, Dombrowski is said to be focused on finding a difference-maker. Arozarena is certainly tantalizing. After a brutal start, the 29-year-old is batting .301 with seven homers and a .978 OPS since June 14. He has two more years of arbitration eligibility and will begin to get expensive for the small-market Rays.

If the Phillies traded for Arozarena to take over in left field, Brandon Marsh could slide over to center in a platoon with Rojas.

At a minimum, the Phillies are seeking a righty-hitting outfielder to share left field with Marsh. The Tigers’ Mark Canha, a free agent after the season, is a low-cost possibility. Rival team officials suspect the Phillies are interested in the Nationals’ Lane Thomas and maybe the Angels’ Taylor Ward, who are under control via arbitration through 2025 and 2026, respectively.

» READ MORE: How aggressive will the Phillies be at the trade deadline? Let’s look at Dave Dombrowski’s history for clues.

In those scenarios, Rojas would continue to receive most of the playing time in center field despite a .563 OPS that ranks 214th among 218 hitters with at least 250 plate appearances.

“Eliminating runs defensively is the key for him, and then continuing to talk him through situations — when to bunt, when to take pitches,” Thomson said. “That’s an ongoing process, to tell you the truth. But his defensive ability just eliminates a lot of runs for the other team.”

And Thomson believes Rojas’ defense, not up to the elite level that he reached last season, has improved since he came back from triple A.

“He’s more in control,” Thomson said. “He’s understanding that he doesn’t have to make the great play all the time. Sometimes the situation calls for you to just be safe. I think he’s getting it.”

Nothing is more important for the Phillies than the health of their best starting pitchers. As the innings pile up, Thomson intends to ease the stress on Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Suárez, and Cristopher Sánchez by using a six-man rotation. An upcoming 10-game West Coast trip would be a good time for a No. 6 starter.

“Who is it?” Thomson said. “I can’t tell you.”

Indeed, the Phillies don’t have six healthy major-league starters. Taijuan Walker is making progress in his return from an inflamed right index finger but remains a few weeks from rejoining the rotation. Spencer Turnbull, sidelined by a strained muscle behind his right shoulder, isn’t expected back until late August.

» READ MORE: Well-timed rest for All-Stars Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suárez a wise move for World Series-or-bust Phillies

Tyler Phillips is already in the rotation. Michael Mercado is transitioning to a relief role in triple A to conserve his workload. Kolby Allard has pitched better lately for Lehigh Valley; prospect Mick Abel has struggled.

“We’ll just have to gauge it,” Thomson said. “We’ll have to see where we’re at and see how taxed [the starters] are. We have to make sure that we take care of them.”

Dombrowski has traded for a back-end starter at the deadline in each of his seasons with the Phillies (Kyle Gibson in 2021, Noah Syndergaard in 2022, Michael Lorenzen last year). It barely qualifies as a priority now, especially since Walker and Turnbull are expected to return before the end of the season.

But it never hurts to add pitching depth, either.