The Phillies have a ‘complete’ roster after the trade deadline. Is it enough to win the World Series?
“This team if healthy will be the best in the NL in October. Maybe the best in baseball,” says one talent evaluator.
Pencils down.
Six o’clock came and went Tuesday evening, and, with it, so did the last chance for teams to make in-season trades that will affect 40-man rosters. What you see, then, more or less is what you’ll get through the next two months — and longer for World Series contenders who survive and advance in October.
So, how ‘bout them Phillies?
» READ MORE: Phillies trade for White Sox lefty reliever Tanner Banks; deal Gregory Soto to Orioles
“Well, I feel very good about it,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said once he came up for air after a frenzied final hour in which the Phillies beat the trade buzzer by making concurrent moves to organize and solidify the bullpen. “I like our ballclub.”
But don’t take Dombrowski’s word for it. In an informal post-deadline survey of four talent evaluators from rival National League teams, all four said they think the Phillies have the best roster in the league, citing the depth of the lineup and pitching staff as reasons to put them ahead of the Dodgers, Braves, Padres, and other playoff contenders.
One common word used to describe the Phillies: “Complete.”
“Subtract their little funk they’re in now, in the long run, this team if healthy, will be the best in the NL in October,” one evaluator said. “Maybe the best in baseball.”
In a market that was tilted heavily in favor of sellers, and lacking true “difference-makers” — a phrase used often by Dombrowski — (the White Sox held lefty Garrett Crochet and center fielder Luis Robert Jr.), the Phillies took a hyperfocused approach to the annual trade bazaar.
They identified their most pressing needs — a righty-hitting outfielder and a late-inning reliever — and were aggressive in striking for Austin Hays and closer Carlos Estévez on Friday and Saturday, respectively. Then, on deadline day, they honed in on the underbelly of the bullpen, acquiring one lefty and discarding another.
Gregory Soto, a two-time All-Star closer earlier in his career with the Tigers, never fit in with manager Rob Thomson’s bullpen-by-matchups concept. So, the Phillies struck a deal for Tanner Banks, who is lethal on left-handed hitters, and jettisoned Soto to the Orioles for two prospects.
» READ MORE: Carlos Estévez was the Phillies’ top trade-deadline pitching target. His former coach explains his rise.
“We set out with the goal of trying to get a right-handed bat, which was Austin Hays,” Dombrowski said. “We wanted to get another back-end type [reliever] if we could in Estévez, and we really like him as somebody that can close games. We end up getting Tanner Banks as an arm that we like out there. Overall, we really like what we’ve done.”
It’s always fair to wonder if they did enough, especially because they insist, from ownership on down, that they’re all-in to win the World Series. And they’ve played .500 ball since the second week of June and lost nine of 13 games entering Tuesday night’s game against the Yankees at Citizens Bank Park.
Should the Phillies have given up more, for example, to pry away slugging outfielder Randy Arozarena?
But the market was packed with teams looking for outfield help. Entering play Tuesday, outfielders across the majors averaged a .711 OPS, the third-lowest mark since 1919.
Arozarena wound up being the best outfield bat who got traded, and it was no wonder the Mariners paid a price, sending two prospects and a reportedly substantial player to be named to the Rays. Lane Thomas went from Washington to Cleveland for three prospects; the Mets and Giants gave up one prospect apiece for Jesse Winker and Mark Canha, both of whom are two-month rentals.
The Phillies got Hays without trading a prospect. Maybe he will be the everyday answer in left field; maybe he winds up splitting time with Brandon Marsh. Either way, he figures to be an upgrade over the released Whit Merrifield. And after going 2-for-12 with five strikeouts in his first three games, Hays slugged a three-run homer Tuesday night before punching a game-tying single in the 11th inning.
If the outfield market was a bear for buyers, consider the returns for relievers.
» READ MORE: The Phillies liked new outfielder Austin Hays ‘for a few years.’ Where does that leave Brandon Marsh?
The Phillies set the price over the weekend when they dealt 22-year-old pitchers George Klassen and Samuel Aldegheri — their No. 5 and 7 prospects, according to Baseball America’s midseason rankings — for Estévez, who can be a free agent after the season.
(In trading Soto to the Orioles for pitching prospects Seth Johnson and Moisés Chace, Dombrowski said the Phillies tried to make up for the losses of Klassen and Aldegheri.)
But the Phillies have won five postseason series over the last two years with five relievers closing out the final game. Zach Eflin, Seranthony Domínguez, and starter Ranger Suárez got the final out in the wild-card series, divisional round, and NL Championship Series in 2022; Soto and Matt Strahm were on the mound in the clinchers of the wild-card and divisional series last year.
Thomson, who doesn’t like to designate a closer, came as close as he gets with Estévez, declaring that he will “get the bulk of the ninth innings.” It will enable Thomson to use other high-leverage relievers, notably José Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, and Strahm earlier and more aggressively in postseason games.
Other contenders must have the same idea. Because the Padres paid even more for Jason Adam and Tanner Scott than the Phillies did for Estévez. They sent three prospects to the Rays for Adam, then gave up their Nos. 3, 4, 6, and 29 prospects in a deadline-day trade with the Marlins for Scott.
The Phillies checked off items on their deadline shopping list without touching their top three prospects: right-hander Andrew Painter, infielder Aidan Miller, and center fielder Justin Crawford. They kept teenage shortstop Starlyn Caba and catcher Eduardo Tait, too.
And as two of the aforementioned talent evaluators noted, the balance of power in the National League didn’t change at this deadline. The Dodgers added back-end starter Jack Flaherty, utility man Tommy Edman, and veteran center fielder Kevin Kiermaier; the Braves reacquired outfielder Jorge Soler and reliever Luke Jackson; the Padres beefed up their bullpen.
But the difference-makers — Crochet, Robert, Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, Blue Jays stars Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette — stayed put.
“We need to play well and play good,” Dombrowski said. “I know [other contenders] got better. I know they made some moves for guys, and they’re good clubs. But I think we have a good club, too.”