The Phillies’ bullpen isn’t a weakness, but that doesn’t mean they should pass on upgrading at the trade deadline
There’s no such thing as too many late-inning arms, especially if the intention is to play through the first week in November.
CHICAGO — In three weeks, maybe everything will make more sense.
Because three weeks from now, front offices will no longer be distracted by the draft. The All-Star Game will be over. Every team will have played at least 15, nearly 20 more games, so the separation between the contenders and also-rans — buyers and sellers, as they’re commonly called in July — may be wider than it is now.
Oh, and Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and J.T. Realmuto will all be back in the Phillies’ lineup.
» READ MORE: The Phillies got lucky with Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and their trade deadline outlook
Maybe in three weeks, then, the industry will have a better idea of which players are actually available before the trade deadline at 6 p.m. July 30. And maybe the Phillies will have a clearer picture of what they want to buy.
But here’s one thing we already know: Several late-inning relievers will be on the market, and the Phillies must acquire one of them.
It isn’t that the bullpen is a weakness. On the contrary, Phillies relievers had the fifth-best ERA (3.34) in the majors through Monday. Among 134 relievers with at least 30 innings pitched, Jeff Hoffman (1.27) and Matt Strahm (1.41) ranked eighth and 11th, respectively. José Alvarado (3.18) was 52nd. Orion Kerkering (1.52) was one-third of an inning shy of qualifying. Gregory Soto allowed one earned run in 10 innings in June; Seranthony Domínguez gave up one in 8⅔ innings.
They haven’t been overused, either. With the starters consistently getting into the sixth and seventh innings, the Phillies have needed only 259 innings from the bullpen. Only the Mariners (258) have needed fewer.
But with the best record in baseball (55-29) and an eight-game lead in the division entering Tuesday night’s series opener at Wrigley Field against the Cubs, everything the Phillies do for the rest of the season is in preparation for October. And although the strength of the rotation has put them in this position, the Phillies will likely want to throttle back on the starters’ workloads in the middle of summer. With Spencer Turnbull out for a while with a triceps strain and little depth in triple A, the relievers may be asked to do more.
Regardless, manager Rob Thomson’s tendency in the last two postseasons was to ride the bullpen — more and more, in fact, with every round.
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To wit: In 2022, the relievers covered 38% of the innings in the regular season. They worked 16⅔ of the 35 innings (46.3%) against the Braves in the division series; 22 of the 44 innings (50%) against the Padres in the NL Championship Series, with starter Ranger Suárez even closing out Game 5; and 26⅓ of the 53 innings (49.2%) against the Astros in the World Series. The Phillies used nine relievers in the postseason, not including Suárez and fellow starter Noah Syndergaard.
Last year, the usage pattern was similar. After logging 37.7% of the regular-season innings, the bullpen worked 14⅓ of the 35 innings (40%) in the divisional round against the Braves and 25⅔ of the 61⅓ innings (41.2%) in the NLCS against the Diamondbacks.
And while the Phillies’ downfall in Games 6 and 7 was tied to chasing too many pitches out of the strike zone, it wouldn’t have come to that if the bullpen didn’t blow late-inning leads in two of three games in Arizona, including Craig Kimbrel’s three-run meltdown in the eighth inning of Game 4.
The Phillies were interested in hard-throwing free-agent righties Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson in the offseason but decided to stand pat when they signed elsewhere. There’s still room, then, to add a reliever now.
And there’s no such thing as too many late-inning arms, especially if the intention is to play through the first week in November.
Other areas of the roster could use reinforcement. Entering the week, the Phillies ranked 24th and 26th in OPS from left field (.660) and center field (.608). At minimum, they will explore a righty-hitting platoon partner for Brandon Marsh, who continues to sit against lefty starters. Or they could go big with a move for, say, White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr.
But the need in the outfield will be less pronounced if Nick Castellanos hits to his previous levels. There are positive signs. He batted .276/.325/.486 in June, an improvement over his .210/.272/.338 struggle through the end of May.
Castellanos won’t cease to be streaky from month to month, even game to game. But if the $100 million right fielder’s production aligns more closely with his track record — and with Harper (hamstring) and Schwarber (groin) expected back before the All-Star break and Realmuto (knee) right after — the Phillies would be better able to live with center-field whiz Johan Rojas’ light bat in the No. 9 spot and a platoon with Marsh in left field.
» READ MORE: What if the Phillies’ outfield production doesn’t improve? Here are a few trade options to watch.
In that case, they could turn their attention to the bullpen, typically the easiest area to fortify because of the inventory available on the trade market.
Mason Miller, the Athletics’ flame-throwing rookie closer, would be the prize of the deadline. But two rival scouts said last week they’re skeptical Oakland will trade him with five years of club control. Setup man Lucas Erceg, also under control through 2029, might be more available.
One reliever who definitely will be dealt: Marlins closer Tanner Scott. The Phillies got an up-close look at his fastball-slider combination last weekend, and it was hard to not be impressed. The 29-year-old lefty retired all six batters he faced, including three via strikeouts, in nailing down saves on Thursday and Saturday. And because he’s eligible for free agency after the season, the prospect return doesn’t figure to be substantial.
Carlos Estévez (Angels) and Michael Kopech (White Sox) could be dealt, and if the Nationals sell, it would probably be from a deep pool of relievers that features Kyle Finnegan and Hunter Harvey. Other relievers will be on the move, including some whose teams have not yet given up hope of staying in the wild-card race.
Three weeks from now, maybe the picture will look clearer. Even so, there will be an ample supply of late-inning relievers for the Phillies to satisfy their demand for one more.