Phillies observations: Nick Castellanos hitting harder, righty relievers thriving, and more

The Phillies are 25 games above .500, are coming off a three-game sweep of a talented team, and are relatively healthy right now. Things are good. As they head to London for a two-game series against the Mets, let’s take a look at some trends that have emerged over the last few weeks.

Nick Castellanos is coming off his best week yet. He has hit .333/.379/.704 since May 29, with two home runs and a 1.083 OPS. Obviously, that is not a big sample, especially when you take into account the other 56 games Castellanos has played, in which he has hit .199/.264/.308.

But there is another promising sign here. Over the course of May, the Phillies right fielder has been hitting the ball progressively harder and more often. Since May 15, he has posted a hard-hit percentage of 46%, which is above average. Since, May 22, he has increased that number to 51%, and since May 29, he has upped it to 60%.

To put this into context, Aaron Judge leads MLB with a hard-hit rate of 62.4% on the season. When Castellanos is at his best, he’s at around 46% for the season. Right now, he’s at 40.2% for 2024.

Castellanos talked to the media Tuesday after his walk-off double against the Brewers and mentioned that he hadn’t been seeing results. The data backs that up. Some of those hard hits have been hit right at guys. His batting average on balls in play has dropped from .337 in 2023 to .244 in 2024, which suggests that he might be getting unlucky.

The good sign, for Castellanos, is that he’s hitting the ball harder more consistently. If he keeps doing that, it stands to reason that more balls will start to fall for hits.

» READ MORE: The Phillies are coming ‘to my jawn.’ And this U.K. superfan is welcoming all with help from Chase Utley.

“He’s balanced at the plate,” said manager Rob Thomson. “He’s seeing the ball, he’s taking pitches. Working counts. Using the entire field. He hit a bullet to the second baseman earlier in the game. It looks like he’s getting there.”

In a recent trade deadline preview, ESPN’s Jeff Passan said the Phillies would prioritize adding an outfielder. This makes sense, given how some of the Phillies’ right-handed relievers are pitching. Orion Kerkering hasn’t allowed an earned run or a walk in his last seven outings. Seranthony Domínguez — who struggled to start the year, and still has a 5.14 ERA to show for it — has allowed no runs and just one walk over his last seven outings.

The Phillies’ left-handed reliever corps is as strong as can be. If they were going to add a reliever, it would be a righty, but given how Domínguez and Kerkering have been pitching lately, that feels like a less-pressing need.

Domínguez was pitching in some lower-leverage spots and is gradually seeing higher-leverage innings again. He has made some adjustments to his slider, which he says “has better break, and more consistency.”

For Kerkering, the key has been to throw his fastballs more often. It’s something pitching coach Caleb Cotham approached him about after the homestand against the Nationals in mid-May. Kerkering pitched the ninth inning on May 18 and threw only seven four-seam fastballs out of 24 pitches. All of the hits he allowed in that outing were on his sweeper.

“I was talking to J.T. [Realmuto] and Caleb a little bit, where I want to be able to throw some more heaters,” Kerkering said. “Not saying I need to throw it every single time, but be able to show it more, rather than being sweeper-happy.

“Play the fastball off of the sweeper. Make it so they have to guess which fastball they are going to get. Like, I don’t know if this ball is going to be straight or if it’s going to move 16 inches in on my hands. I think that helps protect it more.

» READ MORE: Somehow, the Phillies are better off without Rhys Hoskins. Rob Thomson (and I) didn’t foresee this

“Being able to throw the two-seam fastball more, I think it makes the hitter think more. Because it’s two different fastballs. The velocities are similar, but one will come at your hands and the other one is just rising.”

Finding pockets to use the fastball made an immediate difference in his next outing, and has ever since.

“I think what I’m realizing is that big league pitching is just trying to [expletive] with people’s heads,” Kerkering said. “Are we over here? Are we over there?”

The Phillies have four pitchers who rank in the top six in the National League in ERA. Ranger Suárez ranks first at 1.70, Zack Wheeler is third at 2.23, Cristopher Sánchez is fifth at 2.71, and Aaron Nola is sixth at 2.77.

It’s an impressive run, especially given how deep into games those four have pitched. But they are not the five aces — not yet, at least. Taijuan Walker has continued to struggle, particularly with his splitter. He allowed four earned runs on five hits with two home runs against the Cardinals in his last outing on Sunday.

» READ MORE: Hayes: Taijuan Walker should lose his starting spot with the Phillies to Spencer Turnbull

He had trouble locating his pitches and was reluctant to lean on his splitter early, choosing to rely on his sinker, cutter, and curveball. The Cardinals’ home runs came off his cutter and the sweeper.

“I thought the splitter was the best that it’s been all year,” Walker said after the game. “It was really good. Now that I’ve got that part, I can start throwing that a lot more and mix it in a lot more going forward. It’s just frustrating.”

He has been saying this for a while, and the results haven’t shown yet. Walker said he made a slight adjustment to his splitter grip before his last start. It’s unclear whether that will make a difference, but if it doesn’t, he has to find a way to fix that pitch — and trust it more.

Join us on Phillies Gameday Central as The Inquirer’s Scott Lauber brings you live coverage at noon Saturday from London, where the Phillies face off against the Mets. He’ll be joined by Phillies beat writer Alex Coffey, while he shares his adventures in the city along with the latest news on the team. Be sure to tune in for this special international edition of Gameday Central!

This is a long trip, with a significant time change, so the Phillies are getting two off days before their two-game set against the Mets, and one off day after. One group that should benefit from this is the hitters. They’ll get some extra rest, and many players are unaffected by a few days without in-game at-bats, as we often see after the All-Star break.

Realmuto, in particular, has taken a beating in games recently and will have three days off before the start of the London series on Saturday.

The group that might struggle is the pitching staff. Some players, like Nola, are better on extra rest, but the Phillies’ ace (Wheeler) is not. There isn’t much the team can do to avoid the potential effects of this.

“Really just bullpens,” Thomson said. “Flat-ground [pitching sessions], touch-and-feels, full bullpens, whatever we can do, or whatever they need to keep them sharp.”

» READ MORE: Phillies outfielder David Dahl, 30, revived his career, thanks to a mental skills coach