Phillies are counting on the Nola-Wheeler combo to ‘haunt’ managers once again in the playoffs

In 2011, the Detroit Tigers won the first of four consecutive division titles, a run that was fueled by twin horses.

Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer pulled the cart. Everyone rode along.

Each year, like clockwork, Verlander and Scherzer made 33 or 34 regular-season starts to put the Tigers in the playoffs. Their presence on the mound meant Detroit often played long into October. And then, they would come back the next season and do it again. Rinse and repeat.

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“Philosophically, it’s something that I believe in,” said Dave Dombrowski, who drafted Verlander, traded for Scherzer, and put together those Tigers rosters. “And that’s trying to get good, quality starting pitchers that can give you a lot of innings but also be good innings. It’s something we try to build the club based upon.”

There are echoes of that philosophy here with Dombrowski’s current team. The Phillies are back in the postseason for a third year in a row, and while there are many explanations for why, the two biggest are Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, thoroughbreds at the front of a strong starting rotation.

A year ago this week, in fact, the Phillies’ aces were at their dominating best. Wheeler gave up one run in 6⅔ innings of the opening game of the wild-card series before Nola shut out the Marlins for seven innings in Game 2.

“Wheeler, Nola, and it’s all o-vah.”

Call it the Phillies’ twist on “Spahn, Sain, and pray for rain.”

“Wheeler and Nola, those guys are going to haunt my dreams,” then-Miami manager Skip Schumaker said at the time. “The Nola-Wheeler combo right there was as good as you’re going to find in the major leagues.”

In fact, in an era when pitchers are going down to arm injuries at an alarming rate, Wheeler and Nola set the Phillies apart because of both their dominance and durability.

Wheeler walked off the mound last Saturday in Washington after getting to 200 innings for the second time in his career. A day later, Nola fell two outs shy of 200, a mark that he has reached three times before. Wheeler and Nola are the first set of teammates to pitch at least 199 innings in a season since Verlander and Gerrit Cole for the Astros in 2019.

Contrast that with the Dodgers, for instance. Despite finishing with the best record in the National League, Los Angeles won’t have righty Tyler Glasnow (elbow) and possibly future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw (toe) in the postseason. Walker Buehler is still finding his way after missing last season while recovering from Tommy John elbow surgery. Gavin Stone, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, and Emmet Sheehan are injured.

The Yankees, the top-seeded team in the American League, just lost lefty Nestor Cortes for the early rounds of the playoffs with an elbow injury. The Orioles are missing Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez. The Guardians haven’t had ace Shane Bieber since April. Verlander, now 41, missed 2½ months with a neck injury and was left off the Astros’ wild-card series roster.

So, if you’re looking to feel good about the Phillies’ chances, feast your eyes on Wheeler in Game 1 on Saturday at Citizens Bank Park against either the Brewers or Mets, followed by Nola in Game 2 or Game 3.

Surely, the Phillies must derive confidence from having them start as many games as possible.

”A lot of confidence,” Nick Castellanos said. “They’ve shown it time and time again that the bigger the moment, the bigger the stage, the more they settle in and pitch their game.”

Said Kyle Schwarber: “You look at Wheels, you look at Nols, those two guys have been able to anchor down innings for us. Huge postseason innings for us, as well. They’re not going to be fazed by a moment. They’ve been there. They’ve been in some of the biggest games, and they’ve performed well.”

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Across the league, executives and scouts have noted how well Wheeler and Nola have held up even despite the Phillies’ back-to-back lengthy October runs.

Wheeler threw 219⅔ innings last season, including the playoffs, posted a 1.95 playoff ERA (his career postseason mark is 2.42 in 11 games), then came back and had a Cy Young-worthy season with a 2.57 ERA and league-leading 26 quality starts. Nola threw 216⅔ innings last season, postseason included, notched a 2.35 ERA in the playoffs, and pitched to a 3.57 ERA in his usual 33 starts this season.

Nola said he made slight tweaks to his offseason training routine after the Phillies’ 2022 World Series run, giving himself a few extra weeks off. It worked for him last season, so he kept it.

Former workhorses recognize the old-school mentality.

“My training regimen in January, February, spring training, it was to play until Nov. 1,” said former Phillies ace Cole Hamels, who experienced deep playoff runs in 2008 and 2009, in particular. “You are training for the postseason. Yes, there is 35 starts and seven months of baseball in order to get to the postseason, but I always had that mentality of, I’m playing for the postseason. That’s when I’m going to deliver. I just sort of kept that mantra and that just became my mentality.”

The ability of the starters, especially Wheeler and Nola, to pitch deep into games was a competitive advantage for the Phillies throughout the season. They led the league with 87 starts of six or more innings. At one point, they won 34 consecutive games in which the starter went seven innings.

Rob Thomson, like most managers, tends to approach the postseason differently. He’s often more aggressive in using his relievers. But Wheeler and Nola have earned more leeway. It’s possible they will get it.

“I don’t even think about third time through [the order] with Wheeler and Nola,” Thomson said. “I think it’s just reading stuff and reading swings, and what kind of contact the other team’s making on them. Then, you make a rational decision.”

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Said Nola: “Throughout the league in the postseason, the bullpen is used a lot. Because every pitch matters and every run and every inning and every out is so heightened than it is in the regular season. It’s win or go home, you know? It’s the back end of the season. But if everything’s going good, for sure, I think going deep in a [playoff] game is good.”

It was the Tigers’ signature with Verlander and Scherzer. Verlander went seven or more innings in eight of 12 postseason starts from 2011 to 2014; Scherzer did it in eight of 10 starts during that stretch.

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But before we go too far with the Wheeler/Nola-to-Verlander/Scherzer comparisons, Dombrowski noted there was one thing that the latter tandem didn’t do.

“There’s some similarity,” he said, “but I hope the similarity ends there in one sense because we never won it all [with the Tigers]. It just shows you how hard it is to win.”

Sure. But having two healthy horses at the top of the rotation is a good place to start.