Phillies offseason report card: Can Joe Ross and Jesús Luzardo save the day?

Turns out, $31.1 million doesn’t buy you a heck of a lot when you split it up between four players. If that was the extent of the Phillies’ spending this offseason, here is what it got them:

The official report card:

Jordan Romano: Sure, why not.

Max Kepler: Uh ...

Jesús Luzardo: OK, now we’re talking

Joe Ross: Sure, why not.

Dave Dombrowski was in a tough spot. Anything the Phillies did was going to feel like a disappointment compared to A) the things they have done the past several offseasons and, B) the things the rest of the National League contenders were going to do. Budgets are pesky things. So are opportunity costs.

Some lingering questions:

The Mets and the Dodgers both got a lot better. As of Thursday, they were the odds-on favorites to return to the National League Championship Series, according to the MGM sportsbook.

Not only did the Dodgers re-sign outfielder Teoscar Hernández and setup man Blake Treinen, they added a Cy Young-level pitcher in Blake Snell (five years, $182 million) and a high-floor, decent-upside corner outfielder in Michael Conforto (one year, $17 million). The Mets need no introduction. They added the market’s best hitter (Juan Soto), and its best reliever (Clay Holmes), and they brought back Sean Manaea, who looked like a top-of-the-rotation arm over the last three months of the season.

» READ MORE: Maddening as it is, Dave Dombrowski is right to protect Aidan Miller and Andrew Painter at all costs

Compounding matters are the teams lurking in the rearview. The Cubs added an MVP-caliber outfielder in Kyle Tucker. The Diamondbacks added the best pitcher on the market in Corbin Burnes, albeit while losing a third of their lineup (Christian Walker, Joc Pederson, Josh Bell).

Here’s a fun fact: The last two teams to reach the World Series with five lefty hitters at 300-plus plate appearances were the 2018 Red Sox and the 2012 Tigers. Dombrowski was the personnel chief on both of those teams. Probably doesn’t mean anything. Just an interesting factoid. Only one team in the Wild Card Era (1995) has made the World Series with five lefties at 400-plus plate appearances (2001 Diamondbacks). Presently, that’s the Phillies’ plan: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh, Bryson Stott, and Kepler.

Again, you have to do what you can when you are operating on a budget. If the Phillies weren’t going to spend $20-plus million per year on someone like Hernandez or current free agent Anthony Santander, they probably weren’t going to find the sort of right-handed bat that was going to complete this lineup. At a certain point, you have to take the best value, regardless of how he eats his soup.

The question is whether Kepler brings an attractive enough combination of certainty and upside vs. whatever else the Phillies could have spent his $10 million on.

Even Kepler’s 2023 season raises some eyebrows. While the overall numbers look good, he entered the All-Star break with a batting line that looked suspiciously like the previous season’s, hitting just .207 with a .279 on base percentage and .409 slugging percentage for a .688 OPS. He was en fuego from mid-July through the end of the season: .306/.377/.549 with 12 home runs in 265 plate appearances. But those 2½ months look like an outlier when you consider them in the context of the 24 months of baseball he has turned in since the pandemic.

Here is Kepler’s OPS over the last eight half-seasons, pre- and post-All-Star-break between 2021 and ’24.

I don’t want to ignore Romano’s upside. He was one of the best closers in the majors for three straight years, with 95 saves and a 2.37 ERA from 2021-23. But one assumes the Blue Jays have more information than the Phillies, and Toronto non-tendered Romano. So consider me skeptical.

Ross? I’m intrigued, especially at $4 million. He was a revelation after moving to the bullpen in August, posting a 1.67 ERA with 27 strikeouts, 11 walks, and two home runs in 27 innings.

Get this: Since 2019, Ross ranks 14th out of 321 big league pitchers with a .568 OPS allowed in his first time through the order. That’s something to dream on in the bullpen.

» READ MORE: New Phillies reliever Jordan Romano loves the high expectations here: ‘I have the same expectations myself’

Whether or not Romano bounces back to form, the Phillies have done an intriguing job of adding depth to this pitching staff. Luzardo has top-of-the-rotation stuff. In 2023, he had top-of-the-rotation numbers: 3.58 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9 in 178⅔ innings. Between Ross, Matt Strahm, and Ranger Suárez, the Phillies have some intriguing ways to mix-and-match once Andrew Painter and his innings limit joins the fray.

As I’ve said all along, the Phillies were going to struggle to substantively improve their lineup this offseason. The guys making the big bucks are going to have to do it.