Phillies should get involved in the Jonathan India trade talks, and more Alec Bohm trade thoughts

Sticking our finger on the hot stove and trying not to get burned …

If you were assembling a Mel Kiper Big Board of realistic offseason targets for the Phillies, Jonathan India would have a strong argument to rank No. 1. The Cincinnati Reds second baseman looks a lot like a hitter that Rob Thomson and Dave Dombrowski would custom build for the top of their lineup. The only question is whether he — or Trea Turner or Bryson Stott — can play third. India was drafted as a third baseman, so let’s assume he can.

Beyond that …

Pitch selection?

No hitter in the majors chased less often than India, who ranked first among qualified players with an out-of-the-zone swing rate of 16.7%.

Contact?

India whiffed on just 17.4% of his swings, which put him in the Top 21% of hitters, ahead of every Phillies regular except Stott and Alec Bohm.

Patience?

Only four hitters in the majors walked more often than India: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber, and Nathaniel Lowe.

Baserunning?

India ranked in the top third of hitters in FanGraphs’ Speed Score and is 27-for-31 in stolen-base attempts over the last two seasons.

Right-handed?

Yes, as a matter of fact, he is.

» READ MORE: Four offseason names to know for the Phillies — and one big philosophical point

But India’s most important attribute is his availability. The Reds have an abundance of young infield talent, with breakout star Elly De La Cruz at shortstop and 25-year-old second baseman Matt McLain returning from injuries that sidelined him last season after a rookie year in which he hit .290 with an .864 OPS and 16 home runs in a little over half a season. They have several options at DH, and top prospect Noelvi Marte as an option at third base. Which makes the soon-to-be 28-year-old India a prime trade candidate with two seasons remaining before free agency.

Earlier this offseason, I floated the idea of offering the Reds Bohm in a straight one-for-one swap. It was a long shot of a proposal, contingent on the Reds seeing Bohm as a better fit for their lineup in the same way the Phillies would look at India. Turns out, Cincinnati could be more interested in swapping India for starting pitching, with The Athletic reporting over the weekend that the Reds were in talks with the Royals regarding young lefty Brady Singer. Here’s the interesting thing about that report: The Royals have also reportedly shown interest in Bohm, according to MLB.com.

Would the Royals prefer Bohm to India? Only they can answer that, and they’d be silly to at this point. But you don’t need a whole lot of motivated reasoning to see Bohm’s gap-to-gap swing as a perfect fit for Kauffman Stadium’s cavernous outfield.

Sure sounds like the framework of a three-way deal, to me.

Trading Bohm isn’t as easy as it sounds. It isn’t as obvious, either.

On one hand, the Phillies could be committing organizational malpractice if they don’t trade Bohm this offseason. With two years to go before free agency, coming off an All-Star season, the only way Bohm’s trade value will get any higher is if he makes a big jump in his home run numbers. In which case, he’ll probably be more valuable to the Phillies than anybody else, and will make a compelling case for an extension before he becomes eligible for free agency. Otherwise, the variables suggest Bohm will be playing somewhere else in a couple of years. Aiden Miller is a fast-riser at third base. Bryce Harper is ingrained at first. Scott Boras is Bohm’s agent.

Problem is, Bohm is quite good.

Only eight third basemen had a better wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average) than his .335 (minimum 400 plate appearances). Only five had a lower strikeout rate than his 14.2%.

» READ MORE: Flush with offseason cash, Steve Cohen and the Mets have the Phillies in a tricky spot

There are only three scenarios where trading Bohm would leave the Phillies with an equal or better lineup.

1) They trade him for an equal or better hitter at third.

2) They trade him for a significant enough upgrade over Brandon Marsh in left field that it offsets the downgrade at third.

3) They sign an equal or better third baseman.

India and St. Louis Cardinals utility man Brendan Donovan are two hitters who would make plenty of sense in a one-for-one swap. The Phillies could elect to play third base arbitrage, trading for, say, the Angels’ Luis Rengifo or the Cardinals’ Nolan Arenado, then trading Bohm away for a steeper price that facilitates another move. But that is a lot of ifs and coulds, even before you answer the questions of what each of those players would actually bring to the table. Point is, trading Bohm in order to get better is easier said than done.

One thing I’ve decided: Alex Bregman is a pipe dream. The Astros free agent would make plenty of sense in a world where the Phillies are free to carry as big of a payroll as they desire. Their topline numbers are similar if you squint hard enough, but Bregman’s more of a classic power and OBP slugger without the strikeout rate you typically see from such a combination. He has averaged 92 strikeouts and 72 walks per 162 games over the last two years. He’d look awfully nice hitting in between Harper and Schwarber rather than hitting after them.

The only problem: Industry consensus has Bregman in line for a seven-year, $189 million deal, with many believing that his agent Boras will shoot much higher. The Phillies would need to be aggressive in order to prevent Boras from slow-playing the market, which would complicate their ability to trade Bohm.

» READ MORE: Phillies’ John Middleton OK being a ‘stalking horse’ for Juan Soto, believes he wants to stay in New York

Credit John Middleton for his honesty.

The big guy saved us all from ourselves when he acknowledged the obvious at a recent Wharton School symposium.

“I’m afraid Juan Soto wants to be in New York, and I don’t mind being a stalking horse … but I get the feeling, we’ll probably say, you know what, we’ll probably not win this,” Middleton said.

Soto is going to be a Met. Of that, I’m about 90% sure. The power of deduction isn’t foolproof, but the Mets have far more payroll space than anybody else, far more capital, and at least as much incentive. It is difficult to envision a scenario in which somebody makes an offer that Steve Cohen can’t or won’t beat.

The Phillies will need to be creative this offseason. The easy money era is over.