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Zack Wheeler will start opening day for the Phillies. Who opposes him is a strategy they’ll see often.

The Phillies faced more left-handed starters than any team last season. That trend figures to continue in 2025, including right from the jump against the Nationals.

The Phillies announced Monday that Zack Wheeler will make his second consecutive opening-day start.
The Phillies announced Monday that Zack Wheeler will make his second consecutive opening-day start.Read moreDavid Maialetti / Staff Photographer

CLEARWATER, Fla. — Rob Thomson made the most predictable news yet from a drama-free Phillies camp with the announcement Monday of an opening-day starter.

“[Zack] Wheeler’s starting,” the manager said.

What, you were expecting someone else?

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There’s no need for suspense when the Cy Young Award runner-up — twice in four years, no less — is in your clubhouse. So, it was almost a reflex for Thomson to decide to give the ball to Wheeler on March 27 in Washington, the star righty’s second consecutive opening-day start.

“He’s our guy,” six-time opening-day starter Aaron Nola said of Wheeler, who went home for the day before Thomson met with reporters. “I’ve been around him these six years and seen what he’s done. I’ll say it again: I think he’s the best in the league.”

Said Thomson: “He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball. The combination of power and command and pitchability, that’s why he’s so great.”

(The Phillies haven’t disclosed the rest of the rotation, but as it stands, Jesús Luzardo is lined up to start the second game of the season followed by Nola. Cristopher Sánchez is in line for the home opener March 31 against the Rockies.)

But settling on an opening-day starter isn’t a no-brainer for every team. Take the Nationals, who disclosed that MacKenzie Gore will oppose Wheeler. Gore has flashed top-of-the-rotation potential since being acquired from the Padres in the Juan Soto trade in 2022. But with the opening-day nod, the Nats are signaling it’s time for him to take that step.

Gore, 26, is also left-handed, making him a sensible choice to face the Phillies. It’s a safe bet, in fact, that Nationals manager Dave Martinez will seek to line up Gore for a start in each of the four series between the division rivals, even though he’s the rare lefty who tends to be tougher on right-handed hitters.

Every team matches up its lefties on the Phillies, who have five left-handed hitters among their nine regulars (Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh, and newcomer Max Kepler). Last season, the Phillies faced 58 lefty starters, more than any team in baseball. Only the Marlins (56), Diamondbacks (57), and Dodgers (53) were close. (The Brewers even used lefty Jared Koenig as an opener in back-to-back games against the Phillies last June.)

Surely, there’s more (lefties) where those others came from.

“Yeah,” Thomson said, “we’re gonna see a lot of ‘em.”

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In theory, it’s an advisable strategy. Stott struggled against lefties last season, batting .223 with a .318 on-base percentage and .595 OPS. Marsh has never hit lefties, batting .192 with a .552 OPS last year and .216/.582 over the last four and raising the constant question of whether he can handle playing every day.

As a team, though, the Phillies compensated well. They ranked third in the majors last season with a .783 OPS against lefties and fifth against lefty starters (.767). They went 34-24 against lefty starters, including 3-1 against lefty openers.

Harper is largely impervious to same-side pitching. But Schwarber, who endured Marsh-like problems with lefties early in his career with the Cubs, had dramatic reverse splits last season. He batted .300 and slugged .491 with a .407 on-base percentage (.898 OPS) against lefties compared to .218 and .482 with a .342 OBP (.824 OPS) vs. righties.

That’s one way to dissuade opponents from calling up an extra lefty or two, or reordering their rotation when a series against the Phillies is upcoming.

But the bottom half of the Phillies’ order could remain susceptible to lefties. For all the attention this spring on the leadoff hitter — Schwarber or Trea Turner? — and whether Harper should bat second or third, the more important lineup decisions will be whether to stick with Marsh and Stott against lefties or turn to righty-hitting Johan Rojas and Edmundo Sosa in center field and at second base, respectively.

Stott was more productive against lefties (.738 OPS) than righties (.697) in 2022 and 2023. So, the Phillies are bullish on his chances of bouncing back at the plate overall and against lefties specifically, especially with a healthier right elbow and a more decisive plate approach.

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Kepler was better against lefties (.721 OPS) than righties (.672) last season, although the Twins platooned him more than ever before. But at least there’s reason to believe he will handle lefties.

It’s less clear with Marsh, although the Phillies appear willing to find out.

“I’m not going to announce the lineup,” Thomson said, “but I would expect that those guys are going to play opening day.”

But what if the Nationals start lefty Mitchell Parker in the second or third game? Or if the Phillies face Rockies lefties Kyle Freeland or Austin Gomber in the second series of the season? Or if the Dodgers line up Blake Snell against them the following weekend?

“With Stott being healthy, he’s putting together really good at-bats on left-handed and right-handed [pitching],” Thomson said. “Marsh has had good at-bats against left-handed pitching [this spring], and Kepler has, too.”

There won’t be a shortage of lefties to test them throughout the season.