Batting leadoff for the Phillies ... Bryce Harper? A case can be made to move him there.

Beyond the addition of left fielder Max Kepler, the Phillies have so far refrained from overhauling their offense this offseason.

As the Phillies look to keep pace with the Mets and Braves in the National League East, it seems that any offensive changes will likely involve moving around the pieces they already have in place. And some eyes, including those of Phillies manager Rob Thomson, have fallen upon Kyle Schwarber’s leadoff spot.

Schwarber has certainly made the spot in the order his own and set the major league record for leadoff home runs in a season with 15 in 2024. But, according to Thomson, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s set in stone atop the lineup.

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“The lineup construction, we’re going to go through that and try and figure out a better way to score runs on a consistent basis a little bit more,” Thomson said in October. “Is there a different way? Is it best to have Kyle in the leadoff spot? Don’t know. We’ve won a lot of games with him in the leadoff spot. So we’ve got to really think about this. …

“Some people may have to change their approach a little bit. Again, I don’t know if that’s the best thing to do, to move Kyle out of the leadoff spot, because he’s really good at it. But it may help protect other people.”

Trea Turner, whose sprint speed of 29.6 feet per second trailed only Johan Rojas (30.1) on the 2024 Phillies, fits the prototype of a leadoff hitter who hits for contact and wreaks havoc on the basepaths. Turner briefly was the Phillies’ leadoff man in his first season, but that lasted only 15 games.

Moving Turner back to No. 1 likely would have ripple effects in the lineup and disrupt the lefty-righty-lefty construction in the top third of the order. Turner’s usual place between Schwarber and Bryce Harper offers protection for the lefties and helps keep opposing bullpens on their toes.

So what about swapping the lefties? Schwarber’s power makes him an intimidating first at-bat for the opposing pitcher. Harper, whose on-base percentage (.373) and slugging percentage (.525) led the 2024 Phillies, would be even more daunting.

Thomson said during the winter meetings last month that the idea of Harper leading off has crossed his mind, but he is waiting to make any final decisions until the Phillies’ roster is set. But as a purely theoretical exercise, what’s the argument for the Showman to become the Leadoff Man?

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Possibly the biggest hurdle would be convincing him. Harper has hit leadoff 37 times in his career — over which he slashed .271/.369/.563 — most recently in a single game in 2022.

“That’s something that would be a long conversation, I think. I’m not sure Bryce would be willing to go there,” Thomson said. “... I think the more at-bats you get for the best hitters, the better chances you have. That’s the idea behind it.”

That logic of giving one’s best hitter as many at-bats as possible is the exact philosophy the Dodgers used when they moved Shohei Ohtani to the leadoff spot.

Considering that he stole 59 bases last season, Ohtani’s speed suits the role. But his .646 slugging percentage, 130 RBIs, and 54 home runs also seem tailor-made for the cleanup spot.

Los Angeles has its own prototypical leadoff man in Mookie Betts, who became an MLB record-setter himself in 2023 after driving in 107 runs. When Betts went down with a broken hand in June 2024, however, Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts moved Ohtani up from No. 2.

And he stayed there even after Betts returned, and through the entire postseason as the Dodgers secured the World Series title.

It wasn’t always smooth sailing, however. Ohtani at one point went 0-for-22 with the bases empty during the postseason. And while Roberts was questioned by the media several times on whether a lineup shake-up was warranted, he said, he never considered changing things back.

“It’s how you construct a lineup given who you have in your lineup,” Roberts told reporters during the Dodgers’ National League Championship Series against the Mets. “Because conversely, you hit [Ohtani] third or fourth, and then in that ninth inning he doesn’t get that last at-bat and the whole world is saying, ‘God, why didn’t he hit earlier?’ We all know the world would have changed.

“But those are things that I think we have complete solace in, knowing that giving our best hitter five cracks to be instant offense and also believing that the guys in the bottom of the order can create some havoc and get on base. … I can’t predict the game. So I feel good about what I can predict is Shohei hitting one and getting the most of the at-bats from our offense.”

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The math supports Roberts’ reasoning, even when applied to the Phillies. In 2024, the No. 1 spot in the Phillies’ lineup had 759 plate appearances in the regular season, while the No. 3 spot had 717.

Those 42 additional plate appearances come at the end of games, often in decisive, high-leverage situations.

The traditional argument against leading off a player like Ohtani or Harper would be taking RBI opportunities away from your best hitter by having him hit either with the bases empty or after the nine-hole hitter.

But in 2024, Schwarber actually had more opportunities than Harper with runners in scoring position. Hitting in the leadoff spot, Schwarber had 154 plate appearances with runners in scoring position, compared to Harper’s 148 plate appearances.

Of course, these arguments are moot if Harper still doesn’t want to move. But if Thomson does decide to initiate that conversation, he could make the case that having Turner and Schwarber behind Harper in the order gives pitchers more of a reason to throw to him.

According to Statcast data, only 43.3% of the pitches Harper saw in the 2024 regular season were in the strike zone, the lowest percentage of the Phillies’ everyday players. In the playoffs, that figure was even lower: Only 38.5% of the pitches Harper saw from the Mets were in the strike zone.

Having two powerful hitters waiting in the wings might make the opposing team more leery of pitching around Harper, thereby giving him more to hit.

And the Phillies manager has one other thing up his sleeve.

“He gets more at-bats,” Thomson said, “to get into the Hall of Fame.”