These next two or three games of the NLDS could decide the future of the Phillies’ outfield

I didn’t fully appreciate the stakes of these playoffs until I thought they were over. The dirty little secret about famous people’s obituaries is that many of them are pre-written. Newspaper deadlines offer no accommodation, even for life’s ultimate ones. The same is true of obituaries for famously disappointing sports teams, particularly those that play their games in the evening.

Such was the case with the Phillies on Sunday night. As the boos and groans filled Citizens Bank Park and Game 2 of the National League Division Series marched toward what seemed to be its inevitable conclusion, I began to jot down my response to the only question that could be asked:

Where do they go from here?

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A column began to take shape. A pretty good one, I have to say. Maybe someday I’ll release it on my B-sides, assuming the Presidential Library never comes to pass. Every sports writer’s hard drive contains a fascinating alternate history of the world, stitched together by accounts of events that changed suddenly at the last moment.

In this particular case, I wrote that Game 2 was likely the 2024 Phillies’ last game at Citizens Bank Park. That could still prove true. Two losses at Citi Field in Games 3 and 4 would end this series. But it is hardly the inevitability it seemed before the bottom of the sixth inning on Sunday.

Whatever the case, the reason I bring all of this up is the conclusion I reached. If the Phillies did end up losing the series, and if Game 2 was their last home game of the season, then the next time they took the field at Citizens Bank Park, their lineup would need to look a heck of a lot different.

The rationale is simple. The Phillies got everything a team could hope for out of its starting rotation. Their bullpen was about as capable as a team could make one. Yet they had lost their last four playoff games, all at Citizens Bank Park, and they had done so chiefly because they did not hit.

Well, not only did that narrative die, the guy who killed it is the one who was destined to be the guy to be the first under the microscope. I’m not sure yet whether Nick Castellanos would have warranted all of the speculation about his future in right field. The final three innings of Game 2 did not allow much time or space for thought.

I’ve always felt that Castellanos is the ultimate he-is-who-he-is player and that his biggest problem is that the Phillies often need him to be something he is not. That was especially true during the first 14 innings of this NLDS against the Mets, when they needed him to be the guy who punishes pitchers for avoiding Bryce Harper, and perhaps even dissuades them.

The whole reason the series is now 1-1 is that Castellanos was exactly that guy in the sixth, eighth, and ninth innings. We’ll see whether that was enough for the Mets to start pitching to Harper. Something tells me their strategy will remain unchanged.

That’s not necessarily a Castellanos problem. For all of his faults as a hitter, he brings something to the table that brings a ton of value to a playoff lineup. The problem is that those things are much better suited for the seven-hole than the fourth or fifth.

Reality is, the Phillies do not have a logical player to hit behind Harper. They had a guy who made more sense, but he is currently in Milwaukee. Alec Bohm was that guy for much of the first half of the season. But he started Game 2 on the bench. A lot of this is a function of the unique nature of the Phillies’ skill sets and preordained lineup occupants. Kyle Schwarber would be ideal if he were right-handed, and if he weren’t the team’s leadoff hitter.

Point is, when the Phillies are bad at the plate, they are bad because the lineup falls off a cliff after Harper. It wasn’t as extreme when Bohm and Bryson Stott were hitting. But things are what they are.

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The big problem with the Phillies is that the outfield is often where such hitters reside. Point the finger at Castellanos all you want, but he has been by far the most productive hitter among that group. Austin Hays isn’t the guy, and that’s no fault of his own. He wasn’t that guy when they traded for him. The Phillies gambled that they would not need him to be.

It remains to be seen how that gamble pays off. There’s a chance that Sunday’s rally will awaken something in this Phillies lineup that we have not seen in earnest since the second month of the season. The big problem with this team is that it gets cold all at once. The big strength is that it works the same in the opposite direction.

The outfield is where the Phillies have their most optionality. Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas both have trade value and are not playing under guaranteed multiyear contracts. Both look better suited for life as rotational players.

But things change quickly in October. This is the proving ground. Like Castellanos, Marsh and Rojas have both had their postseason moments. This year, the Phillies are going to need them more consistently.