Phillies-Padres NLCS pitching matchups: Zack Wheeler vs. Yu Darvish, then who?
The Phillies will send aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola to the mound against the Padres in Games 1 and 2 of the NLCS. For the Padres, the picture is cloudier.
After a grueling few weeks that included a 10-game road trip to end the regular season followed by four straight road playoff games, the Phillies will enter their best-of-seven National League Championship Series against the San Diego Padres with the top of their rotation on full rest and at full strength.
Aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are expected to be good to go in Games 1 and 2. Wheeler will be operating with an extra day of rest in Game 1 on Tuesday after the Phillies were able to avoid using him in their closeout win over the Atlanta Braves in Game 4 of the NLDS on Saturday. Nola will take his normal turn in Game 2 after pitching the Phillies to a win on Friday in Game 3 of the NLDS.
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The Padres have a number of options that they can choose from, but the smart money is on veteran righty Yu Darvish getting the start in Game 1. Darvish, a five-time All-Star who has twice finished second in Cy Young voting, has won both of his starts this postseason while allowing four runs on 13 hits and two walks with 11 strikeouts in 12 innings. He pitched the Padres to a 7-1 win over the New York Mets in Game 1 of the wild-card round and a 5-3 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 2 of the NLDS.
Darvish faced the Phillies twice in the regular season with good results. In a 2-0 Padres win on May 19, he held them scoreless for seven innings with five strikeouts. A month later, he held them to three runs in six innings with nine strikeouts and a walk in an 8-5 Padres loss.
Beyond that, the picture is a little cloudier.
Righthander Joe Musgrove would be the obvious choice, but he started Game 4 against the Dodgers on Saturday. That means he won’t be on full rest until Game 3 on Friday in Philadelphia. That likely leaves the Padres choosing between lefty Blake Snell and righty Mike Clevinger. Snell, a former AL Cy Young winner, has the pedigree and is coming off a regular season in which he posted a 3.38 ERA in 24 starts. He is also coming off a Game 3 start against the Dodgers in which he allowed just one run in 5⅓ innings.
The catch? Snell had a rough go of it in both of his regular-season starts against the Phillies. He allowed three runs in 3⅔ innings in a 3-0 Padres loss on May 18, and then allowed four runs in 5⅔ innings in a 4-2 loss on June 25. He also struggled in his wild-card start, walking six of the 19 batters he faced and allowing a home run in 3⅓ innings of a 7-3 loss to the Mets.
The Padres could decide to go with Clevinger for a couple of reasons: one, he’s been much better in the spacious confines of Petco Park this season: a 2.88 ERA at home vs. a 5.46 ERA on the road. Two, he held the Phillies to one hit in five scoreless innings with five strikeouts and no walks in a 3-0 win in the regular season.
The catch? Clevinger was rocked in his only start of the postseason, allowing five runs in 2⅔ innings of a 5-3 loss to the Dodgers in Game 1 of the NLDS.
For now, let’s assume that the Padres go with the longer track record and start Snell in Game 2 against Nola. That would leave Ranger Suárez facing Musgrove in Game 3 in Philly, followed by Noah Syndergaard against Clevinger in Game 4. Wheeler and Nola will both be able to pitch on normal rest in Games 5 and 6.
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The projected matchups
Game 1 (Tuesday in San Diego): RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Yu Darvish
Game 2 (Wednesday in San Diego): RHP Aaron Nola vs. LHP Blake Snell
Game 3 (Friday in Philadelphia): LHP Ranger Suárez vs. RHP Joe Musgrove
Game 4 (Saturday in Philadelphia): RHP Noah Syndergaard vs. RHP Mike Clevinger
x-Game 5 Oct. 23 in Philadelphia): Wheeler vs. Darvish
x-Game 6 Oct. 24 in San Diego): Nola vs. Snell
x-Game 7 Oct. 25 in San Diego): Suárez vs. Musgrove
x-if necessary