Phillies or Padres? Predicting the winner of the NLCS.

The Phillies, who are back in the National League Championship Series for the first time since 2010, take on the San Diego Padres in Game 1 at 8:03 p.m. Tuesday. Zack Wheeler starts for the Phillies against the Padres’ Yu Darvish.

Who will be moving on to the World Series? Our writers give their picks.

The path to the World Series in 2008 became a bit easier for the Phillies when the 97-win Cubs were swept in the NLDS by the 84-win Dodgers. Sound familiar? The Padres are no pushover, but the Phils would rather take them than the 111-win Dodgers. And that path in ‘08 was powered by a raucous crowd at Citizens Bank Park, where the Phillies won all eight of their games that October. Sound familiar? The Phillies will split their two games at Petco Park and then win all three at home in front of a crowd that was just as wild as it was 14 years ago. Bryce Harper is hot, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are locked in, and Rob Thomson has multiple options for the late innings. Even a bullpen game — which the Phillies might have to do — doesn’t sound as bad as it should.

Prediction: Phillies in 5.

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One of the Phillies’ biggest assets during their postseason run has been the ability to play loose — virtually no one, outside of the clubhouse, expected them to advance this far in October. They’ve been playing teams with everything to lose, teams that play tight, but the Padres don’t fit that profile. They too have been an underdog, and have flourished in that role. This is a long-winded way of saying I have no idea how this will play out. But I think the Phillies are a little bit hotter right now.

Prediction: Phillies in 6.

If the Phillies don’t win after the way things have fallen for them, then you’ll know it was never meant to be. Wheeler and Nola can start twice in the NLCS, the first time on extra rest, and Wheeler threw only 79 pitches in Game 2 of the NLDS. Reigning MVP Bryce Harper entered the playoffs and exited his late-season, post-injury doldrums; he leads playoff hitters with a .435 average and a 1.437 OPS. Seranthony Domínguez is lethal at the back end again, which makes Zach Eflin and Jose Alvarado deadly before him. The Padres stack up nearly as well … except star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. is suspended for a PED violation. Too bad.

Prediction: Phillies in 6.

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As the Phillies celebrated in Houston after clinching a wild card, several players mentioned that they intended to pop champagne four more times in the postseason. It was a nice goal. Ambitious, too. But they’re halfway there, with Wheeler and Nola lined up to start at least four games in the best-of-seven NLCS. The Padres’ path to this point has been almost identical. They scraped by just to get into the playoffs, then upset the 101-win Mets and 111-win Dodgers. There’s every bit as much belief in San Diego as there is in Philadelphia. But, well, it’s impossible to pick against the Phillies now.

Prediction: Phillies in 6.

» READ MORE: NL Championship Series: Everything you need to know about the Padres

I picked the Braves last series, so what do I know? Reality is, this series is a 50/50 proposition. Anything beyond that is a guess, so here’s mine: The combination of Wheeler and Nola and the Phillies bullpen in spacious Petco Field hold the Padres under five runs total in Games 1 and 2. Call it a split. Padres win Game 3 behind Joe Musgrove. Phillies bounce back to win Game 4, then lock it down with Wheeler and Nola in Games 5 and 6. I think the Phillies have three players who can win the series on their own in Wheeler, Nola, and Harper.

Prediction: Phillies in 6.

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If you told the Phillies before the postseason began, Hey, you’re going to make it to the National League Championship Series, and you won’t have to face the Dodgers once you get there, it’s a safe bet they would have signed up for that deal. The Padres have pitching depth and, in Manny Machado and Juan Soto, two elite hitters — and Soto, no matter how much he has struggled since joining the team, is still elite. But the same conditions that made the Phils tough to beat in the first two rounds — top-end starters, power bats, a unique home-field advantage — are in place.

Prediction: Phillies in 6.