Phillies offseason hinges on a $300 million question: How much more can John Middleton spend?

The next time you see John Middleton, you better hope he is wearing a space suit with purple accents.

If the Phillies want to upgrade this roster, they may need to go to infinity and beyond.

We’re not talking Yankees star Juan Soto. We’re not even necessarily talking the Astros’ Alex Bregman, or the Orioles’ Anthony Santander, or even the Padres’ Ha-Seong Kim. Maybe not even a bounce-back lottery ticket to compete for a spot in the rotation.

How much more is Middleton willing to spend, given that he is already on the hook for more than he has ever spent before?

Everything hinges on the answer to that question. Before we talk about trading Alec Bohm for a different look at third base. Before we talk about replacing Brandon Marsh and/or Johan Rojas in the outfield. Before we decide whether the Phillies should bring Taijuan Walker back or trade him away for pennies on the dollar. Before we contemplate who will be pitching in the later innings if Jeff Hoffman and/or Carlos Estévez aren’t. Before we even begin to consider the curious case of Ranger Suárez. Before any of that, we must know this.

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Are the Phillies playing the same game as the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers? Or has the big money been spent?

On Tuesday, in his year-end press conference, Phillies president Dave Dombrowski fielded that $300 million question in a number of different formats. He answered in a way that speaks to his staying power as an MLB executive. He complimented his boss in the most explicit terms possible while avoiding the actual question. When pressed, he said, “I don’t know.”

“I have no indication that we’re not going to continue to be aggressive and trying to have an aggressive payroll,” Dombrowski said.

Of course, the payroll will be aggressive even with the most passive of offseasons. The big unknown concerns the ladder of aggression. How far up are the Phillies willing to climb?

Everything starts here. The Phillies are in uncharted territory with a payroll that will likely be above the first luxury tax threshold ($241 million) even before they fill out the 7-10 open slots on their roster. It includes:

That’s $245 million — $4 million above the first tax threshold — with 10 open spots remaining on the roster. Those 10 open spots include two high leverage relievers who figure to be looking for a combined $20-plus million per year on the free-agent market. Factor in various accounting charges and the Phillies would likely need to spend in the $290 million range just to break even, i.e. bring back the exact same squad as last season.

» READ MORE: Who should return to the Phillies and who should move on? See our picks and make your own.

That’s $40-plus million more than they spent last season.

It’s also $60 million less than the Mets spent, and $40 million less than the Dodgers spent, and $20 million less than the Yankees spent.

It’s no fluke that the three MLB teams with $300 million payrolls are among the four teams still vying for the World Series. Though, it depends on how you define the term fluke.

Are the Mets a fluke? I don’t know. What I do know is that their roster is not the kind of thing you envision when you envision a team with a $350ish million payroll. Their two highest-paid pitchers are Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, neither of whom has pitched for the team in more than a year. Rather than the best team money can buy, the Mets are pretty much Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos, and Edwin Díaz surrounded by the Moneyball A’s. Except, Moneyball isn’t exactly cheap these days. Not when a Luis Severino scratch-off ticket costs one year and $13 million.

Which brings us back to our initial point. The Phillies are going to have to make a big payroll jump just to run it back apples for apples. If they want to diversify the portfolio, they’ll have to do one of two things:

Maybe both.

What does creativity look like?

» READ MORE: A few hard truths about the Phillies before we blow them up this offseason

One hypothetical:

Attach Rojas to Walker in a trade to a team in a pitcher’s park and perhaps recoup half of the $36 million the Phillies owe Walker over the next two years. Trade Bohm for a package that includes a potential high-leverage arm and a prospect you can spin off in a trade for the Angels’ Luis Rengifo to play third. Use the combined savings (about $17 million) plus the rainy day fund to sign Santander, and move Marsh to center.

Realistic or not, it’s an example of the kind of shell game the Phillies will need to play if their offseason isn’t as simple as adding a Bregman or Santander to the payroll.

“We have to be open-minded to exploring what’s out there for us, talk to some clubs and see what’s happening,” Dombrowski said. “That process hasn’t started. Sometimes you trade good players for good players.”

The offseason will be a fun one. Also, an impossible one to predict.

“It really comes down to an open-mindedness of conversation.”