The NL East race might be all but over, but the Phillies still have decent wild-card odds

A recent run of better baseball has the Phillies three games above .500 with the All-Star break less than two weeks away.

It’s a big development for the reigning National League champions. As recently as June 2, the Phillies were 25-32 after dropping five straight games. They were battling injuries. Their healthy hitters weren’t hitting. Their high-paid pitchers weren’t producing. It was a perfect time for the Nationals, Tigers, and Athletics to come up on the calendar.

The Phillies went into Tuesday 15-5 since then, and at 40-37 were right back in the playoff hunt.

They’re just not really in contention in the NL East. The division that was expected to be tooth-and-nail down to the final month of the season is becoming a laugher. The class of the division, Atlanta, was in town last week, beating the Phillies twice (a third game was postponed).

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Atlanta, the best team in the NL, had a 10½-game lead on the Phillies entering Tuesday. The Braves led Miami, the second-place team in the NL East, by 6½ games. No other first-place team in Major League Baseball’s six divisions had a larger lead.

As far as the odds go, this one appears to be over. The Braves on Monday were -2500 to win the NL East for the sixth straight season. Yes, to win a measly $1 on the Braves you’d have to risk $25 (or $2,500 to win $100).

The Phillies do have better odds than Miami at this point. The Marlins at 25/1 is a bit of a surprise given they were six games behind Atlanta in the win column. For comparison’s sake, the Yankees were 9½ games back of Tampa in the AL East and just 18/1 to win the division. The Marlins are no Yankees, of course, but there might be a little value there on Miami.

As for the Phillies ... a 10½-game deficit is not insurmountable at this juncture, but it would be a bit surprising for Atlanta, the World Series favorite (+375), to fall off enough to make up the difference — even if the Phillies’ sluggers start hitting for more power.

If you like to try to match up some FanGraphs math with your odds, here’s this: The analytics site had the Phillies at 1.1% to win the NL East. BetMGM’s price of 16/1 implies a 5.9% chance.

The NL East odds were even longer over at FanDuel, which has the Braves priced at -3000 and the Phillies at +2400 (with Miami all the way down to +3800).

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They don’t look like they’re going to win the division, but the Phillies are right in the playoff hunt as we near the halfway point of the season. This reality may be a bit disappointing considering they took the Astros to six games and nearly forced a seventh in last season’s World Series. But with the way things started, it could’ve been a lot worse.

The Phillies entered Tuesday three games behind the Dodgers for the final wild-card playoff spot. Remember, they went from wild card to the World Series last year.

Will they make up ground and get into the postseason? FanDuel and BetMGM don’t offer “to make the playoffs” props, but DraftKings does. That sportsbook had the Phillies at -115 to reach the playoffs as of Tuesday morning.

Odds of -115 imply a 53.5% probability. FanGraphs, meanwhile, had the Phillies at 43.6% to make the playoffs.

The answer to the playoff question at this point seems to be: Flip a coin.