Can the Phillies finish a special season in championship style?

By most measures, the Phillies were the toast of baseball in the first half of the season.

They put up Major League Baseball’s top run differential (+110), lost a series only eight times (tied with Baltimore for the fewest of any team), tied a National League record by sending eight players to the All-Star Game, and posted the league’s best record at the All-Star break (62-34) for just the third time since 1963 — when MLB stopped having multiple All-Star games per season — joining 2011 (57-34) and 1976 (56-25) in that regard.

All told, it’s been a season to remember so far for the city, the team, and its fans.

But with the second half comes a new sense of urgency. The recognition will sink in that October isn’t too far off — and this team carries big World Series expectations. So let’s dig into some of the questions looming for the Phillies down the stretch, as they look to turn the potential of a special year into something more tangible by postseason’s end.

Heading into the All-Star break, the Phillies went 5-5 in their previous 10 games — just the fifth distinct 10-game stretch in which the team went .500 or worse all season. And with Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Taijuan Walker, and Spencer Turnbull (among others) missing some or most of the last six weeks, the team’s record in June and July (22-16, a 93.8-win pace per 162 games) has slowed in comparison with the scorching 40-18 mark (111.7 wins per 162) the Phillies produced in March, April, and May.

Those inclined to see regression after such a hot start might begin to worry that the Phillies are reverting to something less than the best team in baseball. But the good news is that many of those injured players are back in the lineup — Harper and Schwarber have a combined .993 OPS since returning — and the others are nearing their returns, meaning a team that has lost 4.2 projected wins to injuries (16th in MLB) should be at full strength again soon enough. When at least three of Schwarber, Harper, Realmuto, and Trea Turner are in the lineup this season, the Phillies are 46-22 — good for a 110-win pace per 162.

Much has been made of how easy the Phillies have had it in terms of their first-half schedule strength (or weakness, as the case may be). They’ve faced the lowest opponent winning percentage of any team in the NL, and easily the easiest average set of opponents in MLB according to Elo ratings, a power rating that tracks every team’s strength over time (and accounts for home-field advantage). But that’s set to change soon — Philly goes from the easiest Elo schedule in the first half to the second-hardest over the rest of the regular season. No team will see a bigger uptick in schedule difficulty from here on out than the Phillies:

Clearly, the Phillies will find the going a bit tougher during the stretch run. But how much will it really matter? Facing that differential in opponent Elo ratings, the typical team would expect to see its win probability drop by 3.5 percentage points per game; over the course of a 66-game sample (the number of contests left on the Phillies’ slate), that works out to 2.3 fewer wins that could be directly attributed to playing one of the toughest schedules instead of the easiest. But with an 8½-game lead over Atlanta in the division and a 6½-game edge over the Dodgers for the top seed in the NL, it’s unlikely that the increase in schedule strength will make that much of a difference for the Phillies’ big, season-long goals — even if the tougher opponents will be a slight drag on the team’s final win total.

The Phillies have long been reliant on the winning combination of elite starting pitching and a lineup of patient mashers — and this year is no exception. They rank third in runs per game on the strength of the game’s third-highest OBP and sixth-highest slugging percentage; they also lead the league in rotation ERA. Last year’s trend of an improved bullpen has even held steady, with the Phillies boasting the sixth-best relief corps by win probability added. Add it all up, and they had the No. 1 pitching staff in baseball in the first half, according to wins above replacement.

Maintaining that will be the key to the hopes of this team. But there are a few things to keep an eye on as we look ahead. First, the news of back troubles for Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suárez certainly is a concern, as that duo alone has combined for 6.2 of the entire rotation’s 12.7 WAR (or nearly half) so far this year. Resting them for the All-Star break was a good idea, because the Phillies can ill afford to lose either for an extended period of time. Then there’s the question of whether regression is looming for some of the team’s other sudden standouts: All-Stars Cristopher Sánchez, Jeff Hoffman, and Matt Strahm are having career years, contributing nearly 40% of the team’s total pitching WAR. It would be a problem if any of them falter.

» READ MORE: Well-timed rest for All-Stars Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suárez a wise move for Phillies’ run to playoffs

Finally, one of the biggest hidden factors in Philly’s pitching success has nothing to do with the arms doing the throwing. Contrary to their reputation as a collection of defensively challenged sluggers, the Phillies actually rank fifth in fielding WAR this season and are on pace to be one of their best defensive showings since the peak days of Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. But can the Phillies’ newfound glovework last? They ranked just 24th in defensive WAR last season and brought back almost entirely the same cast of characters. (Whit Merrifield, the most notable new addition, was waived last week.) It may well be that shuffling around some positions and moving Schwarber to DH full-time was all this defense needed, but seldom do we see a team make such a quantum fielding leap from one year to the next.

With two MVPs under his belt already — one as a Phillie, in 2021 — Harper has a chance to make a run at another trophy this season. He ranks fourth in the NL in home runs (21), ninth in RBIs (61), third in walks (53), seventh in batting average (.301), third in OBP (.403), third in slugging (.579), second in OPS (.983), and third in WAR (on pace for 6.8 per 162 team games).

In a normal season, a resumé like that — compiled while playing for the best team in MLB — might traditionally make you an MVP favorite. Nowadays, of course, the halo effect of team performance on MVP candidacies has been reduced, with voters placing greater emphasis on individual stats, meaning Harper gets boosted less by the Phillies’ overall record. And this isn’t a normal year with normal MVP candidates, either: Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers is having another unbelievable season, with an NL-high 29 homers and 1.036 OPS at the break. (After years of unprecedented two-way success, Ohtani decided to prove he could be just as valuable even while limited by injury to only hitting.)

» READ MORE: Phillies at the break: Where they stand, key numbers and what’s ahead the rest of the way

Because of this, Ohtani (-380) has a fairly sizable lead on Harper (+410) in the MVP betting odds, according to FanDuel. Here’s a snapshot of the state of the race, juxtaposing the MVP probabilities implied by those odds against WAR:

With a 16% implied probability vs. 63% for Ohtani, Harper has an uphill battle to overtake his West Coast rival. But he’s also the only player with much of a realistic chance to wrest the award away from Ohtani, and Harper at least is within striking distance in most of the stats that undergird Ohtani’s MVP case. If he can close those statistical gaps and the Phillies stay ahead of the Dodgers in the standings, it’s at least within the realm of possibility that voters give Harper the nod.

One of the biggest themes of this season’s first half was that this is a wide-open year in terms of favorites to win the World Series. Both of last year’s Fall Classic teams are struggling — the Phillies surely still feel like they should have been there instead of Arizona, if not for many squandered opportunities late in that series — and a number of their fellow contenders have either battled through epic spates of injuries (Dodgers) or been absurdly inconsistent (Yankees).

Against that backdrop, the Phillies have as good a chance as anybody to make a run to the World Series. According to my composite odds model, which blends forecasts from multiple sources, they have a 15% probability of winning it all, which runs just slightly behind the Dodgers (at 15.7%):

The Phillies also are the strongest playoff bet of any team in MLB right now; their postseason odds are all but certain, with the second-highest chance of winning a division out of any team (87%, trailing only the Dodgers again) and a massive 13½-game edge over the D-Backs, the first team out of the wild card at the break. The Phillies also are projected by the model to finish between 98 and 99 wins, the best of any team in baseball.

That means they’re extremely unlikely to fall out of the top two seeds in the NL, which (despite recent upsets) theoretically is of paramount importance, because it requires you to run through fewer opponents along the path to the World Series. This relatively comfortable set of circumstances should work in the Phillies’ favor, allowing them to spend the second half setting everything up to optimize postseason success.

There are a lot of factors that go into that — including preserving that No. 1 pitching staff, continuing to field the ball well, weathering any injuries that come along the way, surviving the increased schedule strength, and even surveying the trade market for any chances to upgrade. But as the Phillies set out on their stretch-run path, few (if any) other teams are in a better position to turn their championship potential into reality.

» READ MORE: Murphy: Whit Merrifield’s departure offers a hint at the Phillies’ trade deadline strategy