Stock check of the Phillies’ top five relievers: How each is shaping up for a World Series run

Upon signing Shohei Ohtani to a record-breaking contract nine months ago, and many other times since, the Dodgers ruled him out of pitching this season while his right elbow heals from surgery last September.

And now?

“The odds of it coming to pass are very slim,” Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts told reporters last week. “But they’re not zero.”

Consider it a commentary on how important bullpens have become in the postseason that the Dodgers would even think of putting Ohtani on a mound in October to close out a series. Or that the go-for-broke Padres would swap six of their top 16 prospects in deadline trades for relievers Jason Adam, Tanner Scott, and Bryan Hoeing.

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The Phillies experienced it firsthand two years ago. Because although Astros shortstop Jeremy Peña was named MVP of the 2022 World Series, it easily could have been Houston’s entire bullpen, which held the Phillies to two runs in 22⅓ innings to top off an overall 0.83 postseason ERA.

A generation ago, the Yankees rode the greatest closer in history to a dynasty. Now, Mariano Rivera’s legacy is in bullpens that go five, six, even seven lights-out relievers deep. Solid starting pitching and clutch hits are required for lengthy October runs. Mostly, though, it’s about shortening games by safeguarding middle- and late-inning leads.

Right, Craig Kimbrel?

Here, then, with 13 games to go entering Monday night — and the NL East-clinching magic number whittled to five — is a stock check of the Phillies’ top five relievers:

If Hoffman had a singular takeaway from the first playoff experience of his career last year, it was this:

“You manage the game differently in the postseason,” he said. “You’re going to use more guys every night. They lean heavy on us. It’s just going to happen.”

It’s noteworthy, then, that Hoffman has made only two appearances in 11 days.

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Hoffman’s fastball velocity hasn’t dipped from his 96.7 mph average. He hasn’t been any less effective either, retiring 25 of the last 31 batters and not allowing a run since Aug. 18, a span of 8⅔ innings. But there are myriad ways of measuring a pitcher’s fatigue level. Maybe the Phillies spotted something.

Last year, manager Rob Thomson trusted no one more than Hoffman to bail the Phillies out of a jam. The late-blooming 31-year-old righty has been the club’s highest-leverage reliever this season en route to a 1.76 ERA and .196 opponent’s batting average.

The situations are about to get bigger and bigger. If Hoffman is able to deliver, the same could be said for his free-agent payday this winter.

Stock report: Steady.

Like Hoffman, his catch partner and fellow All-Star, Strahm’s workload has been curtailed recently. He came into back-to-back games last week against the Rays but appeared in neither the previous four-game series in Miami nor the ensuing three games at home vs. the Mets.

It’s the calm before the storm.

Strahm was so dominant before the All-Star break — 1.49 ERA and 47-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 36⅓ innings — that it was almost unfair to hold him to that standard. And while he has been solid in the second half, his 3.10 ERA and 22-to-6 strikeouts-to-walks in 20⅓ innings would signal some regression.

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Until you consider that opponents are hitting only .145 against him, compared to .188 before the break.

Strahm isn’t a typical matchup lefty. In fact, he actually has been tougher on right-handed batters (.461 OPS vs. .650 for lefties). It would follow, then, that Thomson will use him with a lead in the seventh or eighth inning, regardless of who’s due to hit.

Stock report: Steady.

Alvarado hadn’t pitched well for several weeks when he walked four of six batters in an Aug. 20 meltdown in Atlanta. Clearly, something was amiss.

Six days later, he flew to Venezuela to address a personal issue.

Neither Alvarado nor team officials has discussed the matter since he rejoined the team after an eight-day absence on the restricted list. But Thomson suggested that the big lefty is pitching with a clearer head. That much is obvious. He has retired 15 of 17 batters in five scoreless innings since his return.

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“It’s so much different when you go out and just focus on competing,” Alvarado said last week through a team interpreter. “Not worry too much about those things that you can’t control. And I know that I came from a rough stretch of bad outings. But I think that we just left that behind now. It’s all different when you go out and not think about those things.”

Also, when you regain your nasty cutter and throw everything for strikes.

In the last two postseasons, Thomson often used Alvarado in the sixth and seventh innings of tight games. He figures to do the same this year, especially against lefty-heavy pockets. If the Phillies face the Padres, for instance, Alvarado could be used to neutralize Jackson Merrill, Luis Arráez, and Jake Cronenworth; against the Diamondbacks, Corbin Carroll and Joc Pederson.

“He’s just pitching free,” Thomson said. “Nothing’s on his mind. He’s good. Whatever the problem was, he took care of it. He’s relaxed and he’s just getting after it. He looks like the real Alvy.”

Stock report: Rising.

After the Phillies pulled to within one run Saturday, Kerkering set down the middle of the Mets’ order — Mark Vientos, Brandon Nimmo, and Pete Alonso — on 12 pitches in the seventh inning.

If you were in line for popcorn, you missed it.

It’s times like that when it’s easy to forget that Kerkering is a rookie. It won’t be until next week that he will mark the one-year anniversary of his major-league debut — after climbing four levels of the farm system in one season.

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But Kerkering did hit a rookie wall last month. He threw his signature sweeper less often and his fastball more, even though the velocity on his heater dipped. He gave up the first homer of his career (on a sweeper) on Aug. 8 in Arizona; he allowed another (on a fastball) a week later against the Nationals.

“Just the lull of the season,” Kerkering said recently. “Kind of getting used to that. Getting used to first-year rookie kind of stuff. Trying not to overthink it.”

Kerkering got a four-day breather, and since then, the 23-year-old righty has retired 33 of 39 batters, 13 by strikeout, and given up one unearned run in 11 innings. Thomson didn’t hesitate to use Kerkering in big spots last October, when he had been in the majors for only a few weeks. He trusts him implicitly now.

Stock check: Rising.

Never mind that Thomson doesn’t use the “C” word. The Phillies have a closer, and it’s Estévez, who hasn’t entered earlier than the ninth inning in any of his 17 appearances since being acquired at the trade deadline.

Estévez also has remained nearly as sharp as he was with the Angels.

The big righty has a 1.93 ERA and six saves in eight opportunities while holding opponents to a .206 average. He has enabled Thomson to slide Hoffman, in particular, and Strahm into the highest-leverage spots before the ninth inning.

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In essence, Estévez took the bullpen seat that was vacated when Kimbrel left as a free agent. Kimbrel made the All-Star team in his only season with the Phillies but was unable to hold a tie in the ninth inning of Game 3 of the NL Championship Series, then blew a two-run lead in the eighth inning of Game 4.

And ultimately, Estévez will be judged only on whether he’s able to do what Kimbrel couldn’t: Throw the clinching pitch of the World Series.

Stock report: Steady.