Phillies’ bullpen splatted in the playoffs, and Dave Dombrowski was ‘as surprised as anybody’

There was a lot that went wrong for the Phillies this postseason, but when Dave Dombrowski looks back at that series, one thing sticks out to the team’s president of baseball operations: the bullpen. In his mind, the lack of offense could be explained. The bats went cold at the wrong time. Some hitters weren’t using the whole field. Some hitters lost track of their approach.

But there was less of an explanation for the Phillies’ relievers, who posted a 11.37 ERA across 12⅔ innings in the NL Division Series, with seven walks and 14 strikeouts. With the exception of José Ruiz, Tanner Banks, Carlos Estévez, and Kolby Allard, this was the same group the Phillies had last postseason, when the bullpen combined for a 2.23 ERA across 44⅓ innings.

For most of this season, especially in the first half, the Phillies’ relievers were a strength. They posted a 26.5% strikeout rate until the All-Star break, which ranked third in baseball, and combined for a 3.94 ERA over the regular season. But when the stakes were the highest, they fell apart.

“I would think [that their performance was more] of an aberration, yes,” Dombrowski said. “Any time you see guys struggle a lot, you get perhaps a little concerned. I don’t think they were overworked or overtired. We all are searching for that answer ourselves.

“I still like our group, our core group of guys, going into next year. We like them. Of course, a couple of them are free agents, as you’re aware. I’m not sure where that will take us, but we feel very comfortable with [Matt] Strahm from the left-hand side, [José] Alvarado and Banks, and then we like [Orion] Kerkering, as high-leverage type of guys. I’m really not sure what happened at that point.

» READ MORE: As Phillies stress continuity, outfield will be the most likely spot to bring change and lineup balance

“I was as surprised as anybody. As I think all of us were at that point, because they had pitched efficiently. They had been in the postseason before. They’re not young guys. Kerkering was the youngest, but they had the experience.

“That probably surprised me more than anything, because when you have good starting pitching, which we did, sometimes you do win a game. You look at the first game [of the NLDS], you’re winning, 1-0, going into the eighth. Well, a lot of times in the regular season, we win that game, and then we didn’t. Our guys just didn’t perform very well at that time.”

Manager Rob Thomson said he didn’t think fatigue had anything to do with it.

“Jeez, I don’t think so,” he said. “You know, the velocity was still there. You take [Jeff] Hoffman’s case, 80% first-pitch strikes, 70% 3-2 strikes. He just had trouble putting them away.

“And I think he was trying to make perfect pitches to put people away, and that’s why you saw a couple of spikes there in that last game. He was just trying to be too fine. But, you know, I don’t think fatigue had anything to do with it. I really don’t.”

As Dombrowski alluded to, most of those arms will be back — unless the Phillies choose to move them — but there are two who might not be. Estévez, who was acquired at the trade deadline, is a free agent. So is Hoffman.

Both have expressed a desire to return to the Phillies. Despite a poor offseason, Hoffman, 31, had a career year, with a 2.17 ERA across 66⅓ innings with 89 strikeouts to 16 walks. He made his first All-Star appearance and recorded 10 saves.

Estévez, 31, regressed a bit over the course of the year. When the Phillies acquired him from the Angels, he’d posted a 2.38 ERA, with a 27.2% strikeout rate and a 3.5% walk rate. That strikeout rate dropped to 19.4% over his time with the Phillies, while his walk rate rose to 8.2%.

» READ MORE: Phillies extend Rob Thomson’s contract through 2026: ‘This will be my last stop’

He also allowed more hard contact as the year went on. Hitters hit the ball hard at a 30.4% clip against Estévez in the first half, a number that increased to 37.1% over the second half.

Dombrowski was not optimistic about both Estévez and Hoffman returning in 2025.

“Well, you never know with payroll, because you don’t know what other adjustments and changes that you end up making,” he said. “We like them both. It’s hard for me to imagine that you end up bringing them both back under the circumstances because I would gather they’re both going to get offered long-term, big-dollar contracts, which they’re going to be looking for.

“I don’t see us spending that type of money on two relievers in our bullpen, but I’m just not sure at this time. But we like them both.”

That isn’t the only pitching puzzle Dombrowski will have to solve this winter. He cited the fifth starter spot as a reason the Phillies played .500 baseball over the second half. It could be tricky problem to address because the main candidate for that spot, prospect Andrew Painter, will be on an innings limit.

Painter, who is coming off rehab from Tommy John surgery, on Saturday threw in his first competitive game since he was injured in March 2023. He is expected to throw 20 innings in the Arizona Fall League. What happens after that is unknown.

“[Painter] knows he’s healthy,” Dombrowski said. “He’s ready to go into spring training. Where I don’t know is … because we need to figure out how many innings we feel comfortable for him to pitch next year, and then we need to have a plan in that regard. Does he pitch at the minor league level for a while and then come up? Does he pitch two or three innings in the beginning and then have more innings at the back end of the year? Does he have a consistent number of innings all year long?

» READ MORE: The Mets rode the ‘wave’ like the 2022 Phillies, leaving this Phillies team looking for answers

“In Pittsburgh, I read what they did with [Paul] Skenes. And he talked about how happy he was with this situation. He started in the minors, but he wasn’t coming off an injury, either. So all of those are factors, and I don’t know the answers at this time. Those will be things that we talk about heading into spring training next year.”

The Phillies will have a better sense of Painter’s workload after he’s done with the Arizona Fall League. They could target a swing pitcher who could fill in the rotation while Painter ramps up and move to the bullpen whenever he becomes a starter. They have some time to make a decision.

“Yes, perhaps [it could be difficult],” Dombrowski said. “But, I mean, those are things we have to figure out. Really, I don’t have that answer at this time of the season, just that Painter is pitching.

“So, yeah. I mean, it does make it a more difficult chore in the sense that you’re not sure when he’s going to come back. If you sign somebody, and they’re looking for a chance to get the ball on an everyday basis, there’s some complexities in it, but nothing that’s insurmountable.”

Another big offseason question will be what happens with Taijuan Walker. Walker is entering the third year of his four-year, $72 million contract. He pitched his way out of the rotation with a 7.10 ERA, and was left off the NLDS roster, but Dombrowski said the Phillies will put him on an offseason program to see how he comes out of it in spring training. It will be a continuation of what he worked on during his time on the injured list this season: weighted-ball exercises, with the goal of increasing velocity.

“He’s approaching it as if he’s got to win a job,” Thomson said. “And so I think knowing Tai, he’s going to give his best effort to get this thing done. And I think during the season, when we put him on this program, he was making strides.

“We had to cut the program off a little bit short because we needed him. I think with the entire offseason, I think we’ll see more of an improvement. That’s what I’m hoping.”

» READ MORE: A few hard truths about the Phillies before we blow them up this offseason

It’s unclear what Walker’s role will be. But there will be no guarantees.

“Well, Taijuan Walker, he did not have a good year, as we all know,” Dombrowski said. “We sat down with Taijuan before he left. He was given a very detailed program from a conditioning and throwing perspective, not that he’s in bad condition, but to get him ready, to try to get him back to be the pitcher that he was in the past.

“He is in a position where I’m convinced he will work hard on that to get it done. I think he’ll come to spring training with us next year, but he’s not guaranteed a starting spot. I don’t think I can just say, ‘Hey, you’re our fifth starter.’ I think you would come to camp and be in a battle to try to win a spot in the rotation.”