Phillies 2024 prospect rankings: Teenage shortstops highlight influx of young talent far from the majors

Two years ago, a scout from a National League East rival summarized the Phillies’ minor-league system by noting the “couple of redwoods” that surpassed everyone else in terms of both stature and talent.

The forest has gotten denser since then.

Andrew Painter and Mick Abel — 6-foot-7 and 6-foot-5, respectively — remain atop The Inquirer’s ranking of the top 10 Phillies prospects, an annual exercise carried out with input from opposing scouts. But the prized pitchers are joined for 2024 by five newcomers, including four teenagers, two of whom entered the organization last year.

» READ MORE: Orion Kerkering will have a big role in the Phillies’ bullpen. Could he wind up being the closer?

“They’ve done a great job finding more athletic kids up the middle,” an NL scout said last week. “You never have enough up the middle, but they’re probably in better shape than a lot of teams. They’ve got the numbers to maybe hit on a few of them.”

Most publications still rank the Phillies’ farm system among the bottom 10 in the sport. The vast majority of the team’s most talented minor leaguers have not yet reached double A. Only three are listed among Baseball America’s newly released top-100 prospects (Painter at No. 12; Justin Crawford and Abel at No. 63 and 64).

But the Phillies also graduated center fielder Johan Rojas to the majors last season. Orion Kerkering has the look of a future closer, perhaps this year. The farm has started to ripen in two years under the direction of Preston Mattingly, with several fresh faces among the new top 10.

Age: 20 (turns 21 on April 10)

2023 stats: Did not pitch.

Outlook: With a combination of elite stuff, precision command, and uncommon maturity, the 2021 first-round pick had a real chance to win a spot in the major-league rotation when spring training opened last year. But instead of becoming the first 19-year-old to pitch for the Phillies since Mark Davis in 1980, Painter suffered a torn ligament in his right elbow. He had Tommy John surgery on July 25, the Phillies’ biggest bummer of 2023 until, well, Game 7.

» READ MORE: Touted pitching prospect Andrew Painter needs Tommy John surgery, Phillies say

Key question: See you in September?

Maybe. Many pitchers return to competition within 12 to 15 months. But a homegrown ace is more valuable than a winning Powerball ticket, so the Phillies outlined a 15- to 18-month timeline for Painter. Whenever he makes his major-league debut, likely early in 2025, it will be must-see viewing.

Age: 22 (turns 23 on Aug. 18)

2023 stats: 4.14 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate, 13.5% walk rate at double-A Reading (108⅔ innings); 3.86 ERA, 25% K rate, 12.5% BB rate at triple-A Lehigh Valley (4⅔ IP).

Outlook: A first-round pick in 2020, he had nowhere to play before or after the draft because the Oregon high school season and the minor leagues were shut down by the pandemic. The lost time took a toll, especially on the development of off-speed pitches that he didn’t need in high school. But Abel appears to have caught up after back-to-back healthy seasons. He changed the look of his slider last year to better complement his curveball, and he’s still refining a quality change-up.

» READ MORE: Don’t forget about Mick Abel, the other half of the Phillies’ best pitching prospect duo in 20 years

Key question: Will Abel be ready for the majors this year?

It depends on his command. The Phillies have tweaked his mechanics to help curb bouts of wildness. If he throws strikes more consistently and lowers his walk rate, he could be a midseason option for a call-up.

Age: 20 (as of Jan. 13)

2023 stats: .344/.399/.478, 3 homers, 40-for-47 steals, 8.1% BB rate, 17.2% K rate at low-A Clearwater (308 plate appearances); .288/.366/.425, 0 HR, 7-for-8 SB, 8.5% BB rate, 19.5% K rate at high-A Jersey Shore (82 PA).

Outlook: In his first full season of pro ball, the 2022 first-round draft pick led the farm system with a .332 batting average. But that wasn’t what stuck with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. “He flies,” Dombrowski said after watching Crawford in June. Given Crawford’s bat-to-ball skills and blazing speed, one American League scout referred to him as a top-of-the-order “throwback.”

» READ MORE: Justin Crawford’s stellar first full season in the minors speeds all the way to the Futures Game at 19

Key question: Will Crawford hit for power?

Like his father, longtime major leaguer Carl Crawford, he will fill out his 6-foot-1, 175-pound frame as he gets older. But the younger Crawford also hits the ball on the ground as often as anyone in the organization. The Phillies will try to coax more loft out of his left-handed swing.

Age: 19 (turns 20 on June 9)

2023 stats: .414/.528/.483, 0 HR, 16.7% BB rate, 13.9% K rate in rookie ball (36 PA); .216/.341/.297, 0 HR, 13.6% BB rate, 22.7% K rate at Clearwater (44 PA).

Outlook: After picking Miller 27th overall last July out of a Tampa-area high school, the Phillies thought they landed one of the best right-handed power hitters in the draft. Sure enough, after going homerless in 20 regular-season games, he bashed a two-run shot on Sept. 15 to power Clearwater into the Florida State League championship series. “He projected that look,” an NL scout said, “like he wanted to be the guy in the big moment.”

» READ MORE: First-round pick Aidan Miller ready to get to work with the Phillies: ‘It’s really a perfect scenario’

Key question: How quickly can Miller rise through the system?

He’s likely to start the season with a return engagement at Clearwater, but given his pedigree and experience with USA Baseball and his advanced approach at the plate, he could move fast for a high school draftee.

Age: 22 (turns 23 on April 4)

2023 stats: 0.00 ERA, 51.4% K rate, 2.9% BB rate at Clearwater (10⅓ IP); 1.77 ERA, 33.8% K rate, 7.5% BB rate at Jersey Shore (20⅓ IP); 2.05 ERA, 37.5% K rate, 5.7% BB rate at Reading (22 IP); 0.00 ERA, 20% K rate, 0% BB rate at Lehigh Valley (1 IP); 3.00 ERA, 42.9% K rate, 14.3% BB rate in MLB (3 IP).

Outlook: Unlike Rojas, who played 59 games in the majors last season, Kerkering still qualifies for these rankings after three late-September relief appearances. Few players ever tore through the minors in one season like Kerkering. The righty reliever is working to refine his sinker. But his hard, sweeping slider might be one of the best breaking pitches in baseball.

» READ MORE: Meet Orion Kerkering, a ‘warrior’ with an elite slider who could help the Phillies’ bullpen soon

Key question: Can Kerkering wind up as a closer?

Let’s let manager Rob Thomson take this one: “The stuff’s there and the swing-and-miss is there. If he can handle this atmosphere, which I think he’s proven, we got somebody that could be special.”

Age: 18 (as of Dec. 6)

2023 stats: .301/.423/.346, 0 HR, 17.1% BB rate, 9.8% K rate in the Dominican Summer League (164 PA).

Outlook: After Caba got $3 million from the Phillies at the start of the 2023 international signing period, respected talent evaluator Sal Agostinelli compared him to another slick-fielding, switch-hitting middle infielder from the Dominican Republic. “I don’t know if he’s going to have [Francisco] Lindor’s power,” Agostinelli said, “but he plays shortstop every bit as good as Lindor right now.” Caba lived up to the hype in a 38-game snapshot last summer before injuring his elbow. He also drew 28 walks and struck out only 16 times. As first impressions go, it couldn’t be better.

» READ MORE: The Phillies are counting on their investment in a Dominican academy to pay off. Here are seven players to watch.

Key question: Will Caba’s talent translate in the U.S.?

The Phillies will find out this season, either in the rookie-level Florida Complex League or perhaps in low-A. (Touted Panamanian catcher Eduardo Tait, another member of the 2023 class, is also expected to play in the FCL.)

Age: 19 (as of Oct. 20)

2023 stats: .255/.351/.286, 0 HR, 13.2% BB rate, 7.5% K rate at Clearwater (228 PA).

Outlook: Most scouts believe Caba has a higher ceiling, but there are reasons to be bullish on Bergolla (pronounced burr-GOYA), too, after the Phillies signed him out of Venezuela for $2.05 million to lead their 2022 international class. In his first season stateside, the lefty-hitting shortstop skipped rookie ball and went straight to low-A, where he had more walks (30) than strikeouts (17). He wore down late in the year, finishing in a 3-for-25 tailspin. But defense is his calling card. As one NL scout put it, “he makes the game look easy.”

Key question: Will Bergolla hit enough to be an everyday shortstop at the higher levels?

“You can’t say he won’t hit,” the scout said. “And his glove and his instincts are worth betting on.”

Age: 19 (turns 20 on Feb. 8)

2023 stats: .228/.369/.370, 8 HR, 23-for-33 SB, 17% BB rate, 18.1% K rate at Clearwater (348 PA); .258/.364/.323, 0 HR, 4-for-8 SB, 11.7% BB rate, 16.9% K rate at Jersey Shore (77 PA).

Outlook: The third teenager (for another few days) to show promise at shortstop for the Phillies, Rincon impressed scouts with his athleticism, defensive aptitude, and instincts on the bases. He’s a switch hitter with more power from the left side but more consistent contact from the right. Like Caba and Bergolla, he appears to have advanced plate discipline and solid bat-to-ball skills, at least against A-ball pitching.

» READ MORE: What the shortstop aging curve means for the Phillies’ 11-year contract with Trea Turner

Key question: With so many shortstops in the organization — and Trea Turner signed for 10 more years — where does Rincon fit?

Odds are, Caba, Bergolla, and Rincon won’t all pan out as everyday players. But Dombrowski does have a history of trading from a positional surplus. Teams have already come calling. If Rincon continues to improve, Dombrowski’s phone will keep buzzing.

Age: 22 (turns 23 on March 3)

2023 stats: .264/.388/.444, 5 HR, 24-for-27 SB, 13.1% BB rate, 25.7% K rate at Clearwater (214 PA); .238/.326/.416, 10 HR, 8-for-11 SB, 10.3% BB rate, 24.8% K rate at Jersey Shore (319 PA).

Outlook: Rincones grew up in Scotland, went to high school in Tampa, played in junior college, transferred to Florida Atlantic University, and got drafted in the third round in 2022. So, it was a long, winding road to 15 homers and 32 steals in his first pro season, and there’s room for growth this year at double A. Few players in the system hit the ball harder than the 6-foot-3, 225-pounder with the left-handed stroke. One glaring weakness: A .665 OPS against lefties.

» READ MORE: The Phillies’ next great hitting prospect might be a Scottish Venezuelan-American with a frame like Pat Burrell

Key question: What’s Rincones’ best position?

He has played mostly left and right field but might wind up at first base. If he hits, it won’t matter. “His bat kept me interested,” an NL scout said.

Age: 24 (turns 25 on June 8)

2023 stats: 3.13 ERA, 32% K rate, 15.6% BB rate at Reading (54⅔ IP); 41.54 ERA, 14.3% K rate, 40% BB rate at Lehigh Valley (4⅓ IP).

Outlook: In his first start after getting promoted to triple A in August, McGarry gave up eight runs in 2⅔ innings. And somehow that wasn’t rock bottom. He walked 11 of 18 batters in his last two starts before the Phillies shut him down, a nightmarish way to end the season and a precipitous fall for the hard-throwing righty, who was under consideration for a September call-up in 2022.

» READ MORE: The Phillies have been successful at keeping their starting pitchers healthy. And it remains key to their success in 2024.

Key question: Where does McGarry go from here?

To the bullpen, maybe? Command has been an issue dating to his college career at Virginia. “I would say we still think of him [as a starter], but I can’t tell you for sure,” Dombrowski said. “We have to get him back to where he was before he went to triple A.” Or else, the Phillies’ rotation depth will be stretched even thinner.