Phillies prospect rankings: Scouts help project top talent and 2022 outlook

At first glance, the Phillies’ minor-league system is less a farm than a forest.

Mick Abel and Andrew Painter, right-handed pitchers and the last two first-round draft picks, are 6-foot-5 and 6-foot-7, respectively. They also represent the organization’s best hopes for homegrown No. 1 starters since Aaron Nola. And if they’re honest, some Phillies officials at the time pegged Nola as a No. 3 or 4.

“The two of them are like a couple of redwoods,” one National League scout said.

But Abel and Painter are also barely out of high school and likely to spend all or most of the year in single-A ball. It’s typical of the Phillies’ system at the moment. Most of the top talent, save for door-knocking shortstop Bryson Stott and emerging catcher Logan O’Hoppe, is playing below double A.

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One scout gushed over 18-year-old Taiwanese second baseman Hao Yu Lee, who went 8-for-22 (.364) with one home run in nine rookie-ball games last summer. Baseball America rated 20-year-old center fielder Yhoswar García as the best athlete in the system after a 19-game glimpse at low-A Clearwater. Will either make an impact at Citizens Bank Park? Check back in about 2024.

But scouting is all about projection, and everyone loves prospect lists. With help from a half-dozen scouts, here’s our version of the Phillies’ top 10, with minor-league camp set to open March 5 regardless of whether major leaguers are still locked out.

Age: 20

Height: 6-5; Weight: 190

2021 stats: 4.43 ERA, 27 BB, 66 K in 44⅔ IP

2022 outlook: The stuff warrants top-prospect billing. The stamina must catch up. Drafted 15th overall in 2020, Abel had the double-whammy of the Oregon high school season and the minor-league season getting canceled by the pandemic. Although the Phillies built up his workload conservatively last year in low-A, he developed shoulder tendinitis in July, which may explain the 13 walks in his last 14 innings. He came back for the Florida instructional league in October and is on track for spring training. One NL scout said Abel reminds him of “young Roy Halladay.” It must be the heater that scrapes the upper 90s, and the slider, curveball, and changeup that alternate as his best off-speed pitch. All he needs now are innings.

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Scout’s take: “He’s someone that could really be special. He loves striking people out; he loves getting people out. He uses his fastball, and his other pitches are dynamic as well. Get out of his way and let him get the experience he needs.”

Age: 24

Height: 6-3; Weight: 200

2021 stats: .299/.390/.486, 16 HR, 65 BB, 108 K in 487 PA

2022 outlook: Dave Dombrowski wasn’t blowing smoke when he told Stott to prepare for a spring training competition with Didi Gregorius. Stott has only 41 triple-A plate appearances, but Rafael Devers had 38 when Dombrowski called him up to the Red Sox in 2017. One year earlier, Boston promoted Andrew Benintendi from double A. Stott is a lefty-hitting shortstop, Bryce Harper’s close pal, and the organization’s reigning player of the year. Evaluators’ opinions vary on the 2019 first-rounder’s ceiling and future position (shortstop or second base?). This year, the Phillies would take steady defense and bottom-of-the-order production.

» READ MORE: Stott is wearing his friend’s memory on his way to the major leagues

Scout’s take: “He’s not a traditional shortstop for me. Not as much range and an average arm. Maybe you can look the other way because of the shift and hope he makes the routine play. Good gap-to-gap swing with power to left-center and right-center.”

Age: 19 (on April 10)

Height: 6-7; Weight: 215

2021 stats: 0.00 ERA, 0 BB, 12 K in 6 IP

2022 outlook: As first impressions go, it doesn’t get better. Drafted 13th overall out of South Florida powerhouse Calvary Christian High and signed for $3.9 million, Painter retired 17 of 21 batters in four short starts in rookie ball. His fastball velocity is a tick or two less than Abel’s, but his curveball may be slightly more advanced. Like Abel, he also throws a curveball and slider. Painter must continue to amass innings while developing his off-speed pitches and staying healthy. He likely will start his first full season in low-A and could move through the system in lockstep with Abel.

Scout’s take: “He’s a high-ceiling guy, but the ‘now’ is good. Very well-coordinated for a big guy, athletic, and competitive. Abel is further along as far as pure command. Painter is still working on the nuances of his delivery but really made a lot of progress.”

Age: 21

Height: 6-0; Weight: 165

2021 stats: .263/.329/417, 11 HR, 34 SB, 33 BB, 77 K in 429 PA

2022 outlook: Rojas made a leaping catch against the outfield wall, stole two bases, and drove in the winning run in a four-day span of spring training last year. That’s one way to get Joe Girardi’s attention. Rojas’ speed and defense are undeniable. Will he hit enough to be an everyday major-league center fielder? He finished strong last season, going 22-for-64 (.344) in 17 games after getting called up to high-A. A right-handed hitter who signed for $10,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2018, he makes relatively solid contact (15.9% strikeout rate). The Phillies want him to lift the ball more, but they’ll have to be careful not to mess up his swing.

Scout’s take: “He’s got sneaky power to go with that speed and plus defense. I think he’s got a chance — [Rojas, Símon Muzziotti, and Yhoswar García] all have a chance to be everyday center fielders with a big-time tools package.”

Age: 22 (on Feb. 9)

Height: 6-2; Weight: 213

2021 stats: .270/.331/.458, 17 HR, 33 BB, 76 K in 438 PA

2022 outlook: Amid their many recent drafting missteps, the Phillies found a 23rd-round sleeper in 2018. O’Hoppe’s big 2021 culminated with a breakout performance in the Arizona Fall League, where he went 23-for-77 with three homers and more walks (21) than strikeouts (15). Like most young hitters, he must continue to reduce his strikeout rate, which is trending in the right direction (17.4% last year, 20.7% in three seasons). But for as much as there is to like about O’Hoppe’s ability, it’s his “makeup” — scout-speak for personality, character, work ethic, and intangibles — that earns him the highest grades.

» READ MORE: O’Hoppe has always been a catcher, and that won’t change with the Phillies

Scout’s take: “He may be their top prospect. Very athletic, similar to [J.T.] Realmuto, and has great leadership qualities. His defense will be above average. And his intangibles are off the charts. He has a chance to be an everyday catcher if they develop him.”

Age: 23

Height: 6-5; Weight: 208

2021 stats: 3.28 ERA, 34 BB, 98 K in 85 IP; 5.14 ERA in two starts for the Phillies.

2022 outlook: Acquired with Kyle Gibson and Ian Kennedy in the deadline deal that sent Spencer Howard to Texas, Crouse replaced Howard as the Phillies’ top upper-minors pitching prospect. He’s no less enigmatic. In two September starts in the majors, Crouse’s average fastball velocity slowed to 93 mph from a high of 97 mph in the minors. With a herky-jerky delivery that borders on improvisational, he has plenty of funk. But his viability as a starter will come down to the development of his changeup to offset a sinker-slider combination.

Scout’s take: “His slider is his money pitch, a bat-misser coming out of his weird, deceptive delivery with the ball hidden behind his head. Good arm speed. His mechanics are very reliever-y. Conventional wisdom is that will limit how good his command will get.”

Age: 22

Height: 6-1; Weight: 210

2021 stats: .215/.282/.374, 3 HR, 10 BB, 25 K in 117 PA

2022 outlook: After drafting Wilson in the second round last year, the Phillies assigned him to low-A rather than rookie ball. It was a challenge. A three-year standout in college at South Alabama, he struggled to translate his skills against better pitching. One scout noted that Wilson seemed to compensate for being fooled by breaking stuff by sitting on fastballs. He wound up striking out in one-fifth of his plate appearances. But the Phillies believe he’s a quick study. He finished August on a 13-for-31 roll but ended the season on an 0-for-14 note.

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Scout’s take: “He was overmatched a little. I think he was over-anticipating how much difference from his world [in college] to what he was seeing, and he was getting out in front. The more I saw him, the better he looked in that arena. He looks like a good player.”

Age: 23

Height: 6-1; Weight: 175

2021 stats: .296/.375/.380, 0 HR, 2 SB, 9 BB, 11 K in 83 PA

2022 outlook: Simply put, Muzziotti needs to play. Alas, he’s on the 40-man roster and unable to attend spring training until the lockout ends. A delay would be another interruption to his development, which paused in 2020 with the cancellation of the minor-league season and last year by visa issues that lingered into August. The Phillies want him to hit the ball in the air more, but speed, defense and consistent contact are his calling cards. He played in the Arizona Fall League and winter ball in his native Venezuela but needs a full season in double A and triple A.

Scout’s take: “It scares me because you look what [missing time] did to Roman Quinn. He had the opportunity to be an impact major-league center fielder but missed at-bats, and it killed his career. I definitely like this kid. He showed some flashes in the Fall League that make me think he’s still got a chance.”

Age: 21

Height: 5-11; Weight: 170

2021 stats: .243/.353/.414, 13 HR, 15 SB, 64 BB, 112 K in 465 PA

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2022 outlook: If García’s stock has slipped, blame Wander Franco. The Rays signed the star of the 2017-18 international class for $3.85 million, and he’s their franchise shortstop four years later. García, who got $2.5 million from the Phillies, is in high-A after dominating rookie ball in 2018, failing at low-A in 2019, and getting mixed results last year. He’s a solid defender at shortstop and second base. But while he hasn’t made an impact at the plate, it’s important to note the switch-hitter turned 21 in October. He still has time, regardless of how badly Franco wrecked the development curve.

Scout’s take: “I do like him. I still give him a chance to be an everyday guy. But I would like to see more development with his bat. He has some really, really ugly at-bats at times. There’s just not enough good at-bats where you go, ‘Oh, this guy’s going to be OK.’”

Age: 22

Height: 6-2; Weight: 190

2021 stats: 2.96 ERA, 14 BB, 43 K in 24⅓ IP

2022 outlook: McGarry could move up quickly if he’s able to harness his command. That has been a challenge for the 2021 fifth-round pick dating to college. In four years at Virginia, he walked 131 batters in 134 innings. But the Phillies put him in A-ball out of the draft, and he had success because of a nasty changeup and solid fastball that scrapes the upper 90s.

Scout’s take: “It’s going to be command with him. And poise. He was really impressive for me in instructional league. He’s got a chance to be a pretty good one.”