Three questions for the Phillies as they try to put away the Braves and win the NL East

ATLANTA — Seven games in 13 days against the Braves represent the perfect chance for the Phillies to set up a drama-free September atop the National League East.

Not that there’s much suspense at the moment anyway.

To chase down another front-runner, as they did to the Mets in 2022, and win their seventh consecutive division title, the Braves needed to push through a door that was left unlocked by the Phillies’ recent 8-18 skid. Instead, they tripped to a 12-15 record during that four-week stretch, picking up only 3½ games in the standings, never narrowing the division lead to less than five games.

» READ MORE: Don’t tell John Middleton the Phillies’ skid was common: It’s time ‘to start playing like it’s May or June’

The spread was seven games with 38 to play entering Tuesday night’s series opener in Atlanta, which prompted the oddsmakers at FanGraphs to give the Phillies an 88.3% chance to win the division for the first time since 2011. Baseball Prospectus was even more bullish on them, setting their odds at 92.6%.

And when the Braves learned Monday that star third baseman Austin Riley will miss at least six weeks with a fracture in his hand, their pursuit of the Phillies felt even more Sisyphean. They already lost ace Spencer Strider and reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. for the season after elbow and knee surgery. Now, Riley has joined second baseman Ozzie Albies (broken wrist) and reliever A.J. Minter (hip) on the shelf.

But as the Phillies try to put away what’s left of the Braves — and they lined up Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and probably Cristopher Sánchez to start three games this week at Truist Park — they have other questions to ponder over the next two weeks. Among them:

Never mind the Braves. The Phillies’ most relevant race exists against the other division leaders. Because the teams with the two best records will get a first-round bye, which means five days off after the regular-season finale and not being subjected to the randomness of a best-of-three series against a team that likely had to push hard for its wild-card spot.

That isn’t nothing.

But it doesn’t guarantee much, either.

In the last three postseasons, only four of the 12 teams that got first-round byes made it through the best-of-five divisional round. Maybe they were rusty. Maybe they got outplayed. In most cases, it was a combination of factors. And while any team would choose home-field advantage in the NLCS, Citizens Bank Park didn’t save the Phillies in Games 6 and 7 last October.

» READ MORE: No one is on a 100-win pace. What’s happened to the super teams, and whose struggles will pay off?

Entering Tuesday, the Phillies (73-51) were a half-game ahead of the Dodgers (74-52) and one game up on the Brewers (72-52). They own a tiebreaker over Los Angeles by virtue of winning the season series; they swept the Brewers in June and play three games in Milwaukee next month. (Save the dates: Sept. 16-18.)

For now, Phillies manager Rob Thomson is prioritizing rest to optimize health, which explains why he insisted on giving Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto full days off Sunday rather than using them as pinch hitters with a two-run deficit in the ninth inning.

“I’m thinking long-term,” Thomson told reporters.

If the race remains tight, maybe there will be greater urgency to put a foot down on the pedal and floor it through the bye-clinching game.

Generally, the Phillies know what to expect from Wheeler and Nola down the stretch and in October. At minimum, they will be reliably solid; at their best, they will dominate. But they’re as durable as starting pitchers come in 2024.

Sánchez and Ranger Suárez are still wild cards.

Also, the lefties are difference-makers.

Consider this: During one of the Phillies’ best 26-game stretches — a 21-5 roll from April 27 to May 25 — Suárez posted a 2.08 ERA in six starts, Sánchez a 3.30 mark in five starts. During the 8-18 malaise from July 12 to Aug. 13, Suárez started only twice with a 5.56 ERA, while Sánchez had a 6.11 ERA in five starts.

» READ MORE: Keeping their starting pitchers healthy is key to a World Series run. Here’s how the Phillies plan to do it.

In a broader context, the Phillies’ fortunes ride with the starting rotation. Through July 11, when the Phillies were the class of baseball, the starters led the majors with a 3.17 ERA, with Suárez leading the league in ERA for most of that time. Since then, they have a cumulative 4.44 ERA, with Suárez out with a sore back.

Unlike last postseason, when a day off between Games 1 and 2 of the NL Division Series enabled the Phillies to get by with only three starters until the middle of the NLCS, they will need four starters in the divisional round this year.

Suárez, scheduled to return over the weekend in Kansas City, has started only once since the All-Star break, in part because of his back but also in a calculated move to give more rest to a starter who hasn’t pitched more than 155 innings in a season. Sánchez quelled concerns about fatigue with a 99-pitch complete game Saturday night. But the Phillies will find spots to give him breathers down the stretch.

» READ MORE: Why Ranger Suarez threw the most important pitches of any Phillies starter last week ... in games that didn't count

”Hopefully they’re over kind of a fatigue hump, but we have to keep them there,” Thomson said. “We have to really monitor it so we don’t put them in harm’s way, so we don’t get them overly fatigued again, so they can get through this month and September in good shape.”

Thomson was referring to all the starters. But it’s especially true for Suárez and Sánchez.

When the Phillies traded for Austin Hays before the July 30 deadline, they intended to give him most of the playing time in left field to gauge his ability to hit righties as well as lefties. He went 10-for-38 (. 263) with three extra-base hits and a .677 OPS in 10 games, then strained his hamstring and went on the injured list.

It’s unclear how the at-bats will be allocated upon his return, likely Friday in Kansas City.

If Hays’ offense outweighs center fielder Johan Rojas’ defense, the Phillies will opt for Hays on an everyday basis in left field and a Rojas-Brandon Marsh platoon in center. Otherwise, Rojas could get most of the time in center, with Hays and Marsh sharing the at-bats in left.

» READ MORE: How far can the Phillies ride their NLCS Game 7 heartbreak? Players who have been there know.

(Rojas, for what it’s worth, was 8-for-27 with a .715 OPS and only six strikeouts — and reached base in seven of eight starts — since Hays‘ injury.)

The Phillies will go as far as the starters and the stars take them. But the outfield configuration is a developing sidebar down the stretch.