Phillies’ historic start: Biggest surprises, trade deadline outlook, and are there any concerns about this team?

They’re 20 games over .500 and tied for the best start in franchise history. Let’s tackle a few questions about what has gone right, and what lies ahead.

Bryce Harper and the Phillies, fresh off sweeping the Nationals, are 20 games above .500 at 34-14.Read moreYong Kim / Staff Photographer

by Scott Lauber and Alex Coffey

Published May 20, 2024, 3:07 p.m. ET

Bryce Harper touched first base, turned to face his onrushing teammates, and raised both arms, the universal sign of victory.

A flex would’ve sufficed, too.

Eight weeks into the season, the Phillies are a wagon. Harper’s sacrifice fly in the 10th inning Saturday night, after Kody Clemens’ tying homer with two out in the ninth, qualified as their most improbable win. But they have mostly steamrolled opponents, with dominant pitching, timely hits, and relentless depth.

It’s almost as though they have unfinished business after back-to-back postseason disappointments.

The Phillies are 34-14, tied with the 1993 and 1976 teams for the best start in the franchise’s 142-season history. Yes, they have played a soft schedule (only three of 48 games have been against teams that are above .500), but it’s the only schedule they’ve got. And they haven’t only beaten up on the bad teams. They’ve annihilated them, with a plus-80 run differential that tops all but the Dodgers (plus-85).

But for as impressive as they’ve been, the Phillies aren’t complacent.

“What happened in the last two years at the end is really motivating for this group,” manager Rob Thomson said recently. “This game will humble you in a hurry if you think you’re better than what you really are. And we have a good club. We just need to keep grinding. Keep playing.”

As the defending World Series champion Rangers drag a .500 record (24-24) into town for a three-game series beginning Tuesday night, let’s tackle a few questions about the Phillies’ historic start:

What stands out the most during this hot start?

Scott Lauber: Extreme success (or failure) is almost always traceable to starting pitching. So, guess which team has the best rotation ERA in the majors? And it’s not just the starters’ 2.63 ERA. The Phillies lead all rotations in innings (288), opponents’ batting average (.208), and quality starts (28). At times, there hasn’t been enough work for the relievers. Talk about a first-world baseball problem.

Alex Coffey: A team chase rate of 28.1%. After getting exposed for their free-swinging ways in the NLCS, the Phillies set out to lower their chase rate this season, and they’ve already dropped it by 3.2% (they were chasing at a rate of 31.3% in 2023). That might not seem like much, but it is the third-largest improvement of any club. It’s why they don’t need to slug their way to a win every night. The home runs will come and go in waves, but now they have a more selectively aggressive approach to lean on. That is a more sustainable formula.

Whose strong start is most impressive — and why?

Lauber: Ranger Suárez. It isn’t merely that he leads the majors in WHIP (0.763), ranks second in ERA (1.37), and is 8-0 in nine starts. It’s that his dominance takes the rotation to a different level. Everyone knows Zack Wheeler is an ace and Aaron Nola a trusty top-of-the-rotation sidekick. But if Suárez’s changeup and curveball remain mostly unhittable complements to his ant-killing sinker, the Phillies have the best trio in baseball.

Coffey: Alec Bohm. Entering Monday’s games, he was tied for the MLB lead with 42 RBIs. He is hitting .330/.389/.528 with five home runs and 16 walks. He’s making better contact because he has laid off pitches that he can reach but not hit hard. The results have been eye-popping. While Bohm might not finish the season with that slash line, he feels better about his overall approach. “I don’t feel like [this streak] is hot, cold, or anything,” he said Sunday. “It just kind of ebbs and flows throughout the season. I don’t really look at it as hot or cold.”

How are the Phillies handling being front-runners?

Lauber: It’s a fair question. Because the last two Phillies teams, with rosters that closely resembled this one, forged their identities amid lousy starts — 21-29 in 2022, 25-32 last year. But even with a five-game lead over the Braves, the Phillies keep stacking wins. And there doesn’t figure to be any letup. After the disappointments of the last two postseasons, motivation isn’t a problem.

Coffey: Part of the reason the Phillies thrived in the 2022 postseason was because they were playing with house money. They loved being the underdogs. That was not the case in 2023, when they played the 84-win Diamondbacks, and I think that new role was hard for them to adapt to. We’ll have to see how this plays out over the course of the season and the postseason, but so far they’ve embraced their front-running tendencies without getting too ahead of themselves. They still have 114 games to play.

Amid all this positivity, is there any area of concern?

Lauber: Health, as always. The Phillies are deeper than they’ve been in years, as evidenced by their 12-3 record since Trea Turner strained his hamstring. But not every injury to every player is created equal. The Phillies aren’t as equipped to handle an extended absence for, say, J.T. Realmuto — or Wheeler, Nola, and Suárez, for that matter, given the lack of appealing starter depth in triple A.

Coffey: Agree with Scott. Starting pitching depth, in particular, is a weak spot. Kolby Allard and Max Castillo were both sent from triple A to the FCL Phillies recently. The Phillies are trying to keep Spencer Turnbull stretched out, but finding three-inning pockets for him isn’t always the easiest thing. Michael Mercado is getting stretched out at triple A, so he could be an option, but there isn’t much behind him. The Phillies like Tyler Phillips, but he has had some rough outings over the past few weeks.

Will Dave Dombrowski be active at the July 30 trade deadline?

Lauber: Dealin’ Dave? Absolutely. Dombrowski found ways to improve even the 108-win Red Sox in 2018. Something to watch: Seranthony Domínguez has pitched better lately after struggling to command his sinker and keep his slider in the ballpark. But if he slips again, the Phillies could be in the market for another righty reliever to supplement Jeff Hoffman and rookie Orion Kerkering.

Coffey: Yes. Despite the Phillies’ record, there are a few needs. A bench outfielder who could hit lefties would be one. A right-handed reliever would be another, if Domínguez continues to struggle. A swingman type pitcher wouldn’t hurt, given the lack of rotation depth.

Name a minor leaguer who might help at some point this season.

Lauber: The beauty of a win-now major-league roster is that there’s time to develop top prospects who are mostly in A-ball. The Phillies still need their farm system, but mostly to provide depth (Clemens, for instance). Prized prospect Mick Abel has struggled to throw strikes in triple A. If the Phillies need a pitcher, Mercado is shaping up as an option.

Coffey: Mercado could contribute to the big league club as soon as this season. It’s unclear what that would look like, but right now, the Phillies are stretching him out to five innings per outing, so presumably he is starting pitching depth. Mercado has a 0.35 ERA in 25⅔ innings.