You want to trade Rhys Hoskins? Why it wouldn’t be easy or wise for the Phillies.
Think the Phillies could get a No. 2 or 3 starter for Hoskins? Let the recent Blue Jays-Mariners and Brewers-Angels swaps open your eyes.
![The Phillies are unlikely to trade streaky, defensively-challenged first baseman Rhys Hoskins this winter.](https://www.inquirer.com/resizer/0UJSmkHzx8R91dNvlceR5Zf0BaE=/760x507/smart/filters:format(webp)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/pmn/DCESXCJKDRELBE5PHMW2LXUCOM.jpg)
Let’s play a game of Name These Sluggers. Your clues will be their stats since 2018, which, in the first two instances, cover the player’s age-25 to age-29 seasons. In the third, the span is age 26 to 30.
Ready? OK, here goes:
Slugger A — .241/.350/.483, 122 OPS-plus, 130 homers, 357 RBIs.
Slugger B — .263/.321/.499, 121 OPS-plus, 121 homers, 349 RBIs.
Slugger C — .240/.302/.490, 113 OPS-plus, 127 homers, 322 RBIs.
Want the answers? Slugger A is Rhys Hoskins; Slugger B is Teoscar Hernández; Slugger C is Hunter Renfroe. And in case you missed it, the Toronto Blue Jays traded Hernández to the Seattle Mariners last week for a setup reliever and a 21-year-old single-A pitcher, while the Milwaukee Brewers dealt Renfroe to the Los Angeles Angels on Tuesday night for two middling relievers and a lefty with a 5.24 ERA in triple A.
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If those returns for righty-swinging, middle-of-the-order hitters and popular core players seem a bit light, well, they weren’t. Not when you consider that Hernández and Renfroe can be free agents after next season.
Hoskins, five months younger than Hernández and 14 months younger than Renfroe and regarded similarly in terms of his skill set on the field and character in the clubhouse, is also entering his walk year. So, if you thought the Phillies could get back a No. 2 or 3 starter this winter in a trade for their big first baseman, let the Blue Jays-Mariners and Brewers-Angels swaps open your eyes to reality.
Sorry, it’s probably not happening.
It isn’t a reflection of Hoskins’ production. He averaged 30 homers and a .485 slugging percentage over the last four full seasons. As much as Phillies fans curse Hoskins’ streakiness, a fault that he admits, he always winds up in the same place. Since 2018, he’s one of nine players with four seasons of at least 26 homers (Renfroe is in that group). Only Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Aaron Judge, Matt Olson, and Hoskins have four seasons of at least 27 homers and a 111 OPS-plus.
As a talent evaluator from an offensively challenged National League team gushed last weekend, “I’d take Rhys!” Most clubs would. But they also aren’t giving up much value for only one guaranteed year of him.
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In the Blue Jays’ case, they are pivoting to improve their run prevention after years as an offense-oriented club. For all of his fastball-mashing power, Hernández is considered a below-average outfielder. The Mariners, meanwhile, have a loaded bullpen but a lineup that ranked 18th in the majors with 690 runs scored. They made the playoffs this year for the first time since 2001 and plan on contending in 2023 despite playing in a division with the powerhouse Houston Astros.
Seattle will take any hitter, even a diminished one-year asset, who can add punch to the offense next season. And it made sense to the Blue Jays to subtract Hernández in order to add reliever Erik Swanson, even though he only just broke through this year, at age 28, with a 1.68 ERA in 57 appearances.
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The Brewers spun the Renfroe trade as a chance to free up a spot for one of several outfield prospects while adding young pitching. But they also saved approximately $11 million by moving Renfroe. The Phillies don’t have any such payroll concerns that would prevent them from carrying Hoskins’ estimated $12 million salary.
If the Phillies were inclined, they could trade Hoskins, who would be particularly appealing to a first-base-needy contender. Houston, for instance, ranked 25th with a .656 OPS at first base this year and would view Hoskins as an upgrade over free agents Yuli Gurriel and Trey Mancini and a solid fit in the quest to win a third World Series in seven years.
The pitching-rich Astros could offer a controllable reliever like Seth Martinez to help fortify the back end of a Phillies bullpen that once again will be recast around José Alvarado, Seranthony Domínguez, and Connor Brogdon. If they were hyper-motivated to acquire a one-year solution at first base, maybe they would consider a back-end starter such as José Urquidy?
But even Hoskins’ most vocal detractors surely agree that the Phillies would derive less value from such a trade than by keeping their first baseman right where he is for one more year, especially because they lack the internal options to replace him. Although Darick Hall hit nine homers and slugged .522 as a part-time designated hitter this summer while Bryce Harper’s broken thumb healed, major-league pitchers may expose the holes in his swing if he played every day.
The issue with Hoskins is more about perception than performance. If the Phillies were able to use him as the DH rather than at first base, or if he batted sixth instead of second — imagine a lineup with Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Harper, Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto, and then, Hoskins’ 30 homers — his flaws may be more easily overlooked.
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But the Phillies have also surrounded Hoskins with better talent since he made his smashing major-league debut in 2017, and he remains a central part of their core. It’s difficult to imagine them moving on from him without bringing back the considerable value that rarely exists on the trade market for a player with one year of control, as the Hernández and Renfroe deals attest.
At this point, it makes more sense to accept Hoskins for the player he is, which means five homers in 29 plate appearances over a seven-game postseason scorcher against Atlanta and San Diego before an Arctic-cold 3-for-25, 10-strikeout World Series.
“Rhys Hoskins works as hard as anybody possibly can and does the best to make himself the best player possible,” Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said recently. “But he’s not a Gold Glove first baseman, for example. He also is a somewhat streaky hitter. When it’s going good, it’s great; when it’s not going good, it’s not so good.
“To me, it’s one of those, you have to understand your players. There are a lot of good things about him. But he’s not the perfect player, right? It’s just the way it is.”
And it’s almost certain to remain that way for the Phillies and Hoskins, at least for one more year.
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