Phillies roster projection: Will Johan Rojas and Orion Kerkering make the team?

SARASOTA, Fla. — It was almost lunchtime Tuesday, but the doors to the cafeteria at the Phillies’ spring-training ballpark were shut.

Roster meetings were in session.

It’s that time of the year. Opening day is a week from Thursday, and with more than 40 players still in camp, decisions loom. Not as many as most springs, mind you, but there are opinions to give about the optimal 26-man roster that will leave for Philadelphia next week.

» READ MORE: Johan Rojas is still not hitting much this spring. What are the Phillies’ options in center field?

The biggest debate involves center field. Johan Rojas came to camp as the front-runner. The Phillies revamped his swing, with more emphasis on using his legs rather than throwing his hands at the ball. They told him not to worry about the results. He bought into the process.

So, how much will his ugly spring numbers — 7-for-45 (.156), one walk, .174 on-base percentage — count against him now?

Hitting coach Kevin Long maintains that Rojas’ progress isn’t reflected on the stat sheet. And Rojas’ elite defense, coupled with above-average offense from nearly every other position, should make it easier for the Phillies to carry a No. 9 hitter who would be learning on the job.

There are other considerations, too. If not Rojas in center, then who?

In the Phillies’ best Plan B, leftfielder Brandon Marsh would slide over to center and Whit Merrifield would play primarily in left. But Marsh is six weeks removed from arthroscopic left knee surgery and hasn’t played center yet this spring. And Merrifield’s optimal role is as a utility player.

The Phillies do have Cristian Pache … for now. He’s out of options and can’t be sent to the minors without exposure to waivers. He is a former top prospect entering his age-25 season, so it seems likely he would get claimed. A year ago, the A’s traded him to the Phillies for a minor-league pitcher rather than risk losing him for nothing.

» READ MORE: Flyin’ Hawaiian Shane Victorino offers tips to another Phillies center fielder: Johan Rojas

Pache’s skill set (exceptional defense, work-in-progress right-handed swing) is similar to Rojas’. If the Phillies send Rojas to triple A, Pache could play center field against left-handed pitching to help ease the physical toll on Marsh.

So, there are choices. Manager Rob Thomson said he hopes to resolve the center-field issue by the end of the weekend. Until then, there will be more meetings.

And while the Phillies discuss, here’s our attempt at a roster projection:

Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker, Cristopher Sánchez.

The only question was the order, and Thomson settled that Sunday when he named Wheeler as the opening-day starter. Nola and Suárez will follow in the first series against the rival Braves at Citizens Bank Park.

Everything revolves around Wheeler and Nola.

» READ MORE: Where does Zack Wheeler rank among the best free-agent signings in Phillies history?

Other teams can lay claim to the best one-two pitching punch in baseball. But no tandem has been more durable than the Phillies’ aces. Since 2020, Nola and Wheeler rank third and fourth, respectively, in innings pitched. Keeping them healthy again is paramount.

But it’s exceedingly rare to survive a season with only five starters, so the Phillies added pitching depth before spring training began. Kolby Allard, Max Castillo, and prized prospect Mick Abel aren’t on the roster now, but there’s a decent chance that any or all will be at some point.

José Alvarado, Seranthony Domínguez, Jeff Hoffman, Gregory Soto, Matt Strahm, Yunior Marte, Luis Ortiz, Spencer Turnbull.

Notably absent: Orion Kerkering.

Kerkering was all but guaranteed a spot until a few weeks ago when he came down with the flu bug that made its way through the clubhouse. He got hit harder than almost anyone, too, running a 103-degree fever on March 4 and missing almost the entire week.

“I think the training staff said I probably had the worst fever,” Kerkering said. “I know a lot of guys had similar stuff, like chills, headache, cough, mucus. Basic flu season. Just glad everyone got it now and got it out of the way.”

» READ MORE: These three relievers could be the key to the success of the Phillies' bullpen

The downside: Kerkering is running out of runway to get ready for the season. He returned to the mound Wednesday in a minor-league game and gave up two runs on three hits. He could pitch in a Grapefruit League game over the weekend.

Kerkering said it’s “not unrealistic” that he could be ready, although he conceded that he has “a feeling of being behind the eight ball a little bit.” Thomson said Kerkering hasn’t been ruled out of the opening-day mix.

But the Phillies also will need multi-inning relievers early in the season because starters won’t be built up to go seven or eight innings, and pitchers who are optioned to the minors out of camp can’t be called up until 15 days into the season.

Kerkering, a one-inning reliever, could continue his buildup for a week or two while Marte and Ortiz provide early-season bullpen bulk. Connor Brogdon, who is out of minor-league options, is also a possibility.

J.T. Realmuto, Garrett Stubbs.

Nothing to see here, except for how many starts Realmuto will make.

In the last eight full regular seasons, Realmuto has averaged 122 starts behind the plate, including 130 in each of the last two seasons. The Phillies intend for him to maintain that workload, even though they realize it’s largely unprecedented for a catcher his age.

Realmuto turned 33 this week. Since 2010, the only catcher to start at least 130 games at age 33 or older is Yadier Molina.

» READ MORE: How the Phillies’ J.T. Realmuto is trying to defy the unforgiving aging curve at catcher

Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott, Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Edmundo Sosa

With Harper making the full-fledged move to first base, the Phillies have their most talented — and star-studded — infield since the days of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins.

Harper fielded grounders and took batting practice for the second day in a row Wednesday, the latest indication that his lower back stiffness has subsided. He was an above-average defender as a first-base novice last season. The Phillies believe he has Gold Glove potential as he continues to learn the position.

» READ MORE: Trea Turner gets right to work rebounding from ‘brutal’ defensive showing in Year 1 with Phillies

It spoke to the depths of Turner’s struggle at the plate for much of last season that his play at shortstop didn’t come under greater scrutiny. He ranked among the worst defenders at the position based on both the tried-and-true eye test and less trustworthy metrics.

Turner’s self-evaluation: “Brutal.”

The degree to which Turner improves his defense is worth watching.

Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, Jake Cave, Whit Merrifield, Kyle Schwarber (DH), and … Rojas

The Phillies pivoted away from acquiring a righty-hitting outfielder at the trade deadline because they wanted to commit more playing time to Rojas. They didn’t acquire a veteran outfielder in the offseason because they didn’t want to block his path.

Opening the season with Rojas in center field is nonbinding. The Phillies could always send him to triple A in June if he’s a total zero at the plate in April and May. We’re listing Merrifield with the outfielders because he figures to provide coverage in case Rojas isn’t ready.

» READ MORE: The Phillies have a Johan Rojas question, but some team officials have faced a similar dilemma before

But here’s the biggest reason to go with Rojas: His defense is difference-making.

If Rojas makes the team, carrying Pache would seem redundant. It might make more sense to keep Cave, a left-handed hitter who could pinch hit for Rojas late in game against a tough righty reliever.