Meet the 2024 Phillies: Season predictions, key questions for every player

With the exception of utilityman Whit Merrifield and right-handed pitcher Spencer Turnbull, everyone on the Phillies’ roster was in the organization last year. But despite the overlap, not all of these players are in the same position that they were last spring. Some will start the season with something to prove; others will try to refine certain parts of their game.

Here is an in-depth look at the players, including two — Taijuan Walker and Orion Kerkering — who will begin the season on the injured list, and questions that each will face in 2024.

Position: 3B | Age: 27 | Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Contract status: $4 million salary via arbitration; under control through 2026.

2024 outlook: With Bryce Harper moving to first base full time, Bohm can go back to focusing solely on playing third, where he has become a passable defender. He achieved career-highs in doubles (31), homers (20), and RBIs (97) last season and is a prime candidate to bat behind Harper. He’s the Phillies’ most improved player since the night in April 2022 when he said he hated it here.

Key question: Is there more power in his bat? Although he reached the 20-homer mark for the first time, he slugged .437, tied for 72nd among 134 players who qualified for the batting title last season.

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: .271/327/.410, 15 HRs, 79 RBIs, .736 OPS, 1.5 WAR.

Position: RF | Age: 32 | Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Contract status: Third season of a five-year, $100 million contract.

2024 outlook: He alternated good months (April, June, August) with bad (May, July) last season. In the division series against Atlanta, he went 7-for-15 with four homers and a 1.796 OPS; in the NLCS against Arizona, he went 1-for-24 with 11 strikeouts and a .278 OPS. It’s all part of the Castellanos experience. But the Phillies will take it, as long as the hot streaks outlast the cold spells.

Key question: Can he swing at fewer pitches out of the strike zone? Castellanos is an aggressive hitter. That isn’t changing. But if he can cut back his chase rate from 41% last season to his 36.3% career mark, it would make a difference.

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: .258/.306/.445, 25 HRs, 91 RBIs, .751 OPS, 0.6 WAR.

Position: 1B | Age: 31 | Bats/Throws: Left/Right

Contract status: Sixth season of a 13-year, $330 million contract.

2024 outlook: He went from the operating table to game action in 160 days, faster than any player ever after Tommy John surgery. He learned to play first base on the fly. And he hit 21 homers with a .900 OPS despite a career-long power drought. In hindsight, maybe Harper should’ve finished better than 12th in the MVP voting last season. If he stays healthy, he almost certainly will this year.

Key question: Will a new position lead to better health? Harper hasn’t played 150 games in a season since 2019, mostly because of freak injuries. But he’s also has a history of back problems that must be managed. Maybe it will help to not have to run around the outfield anymore.

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: .281/.388/.527, 30 HRs, 92 RBIs, .914 OPS, 4.3 WAR.

Position: OF | Age: 26 | Bats/Throws: Left/Right

Contract status: Pre-arbitration; under control through 2027.

2024 outlook: How’s this for a crazy stat? Marsh has the highest batting average on balls in play (.384) ever among hitters with 1,000 career plate appearances. It’s clear, then, that good things usually happen when he makes contact. He trimmed his strikeout rate to 30.5% and hiked his hard-hit rate to 48.7% last year, but there’s room for growth. Improving on a .229/.321/.396 line against lefties would be a start.

Key question: Will Marsh finally hit lefties? Jayson Werth mostly was a platoon outfielder with the Phillies in 2007-08. Eventually, he showed he could hit righties and became an everyday player. It’s time for Marsh to take a similar step.

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: .248/.325/.394, 12 HRs, 66 RBIs, .719 OPS, 1.6 WAR.

Position: INF/OF | Age: 35 | Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Contract status: Signed a one-year, $8 million deal with a club option for 2025.

2024 outlook: In the Phillies’ perfect world, Merrifield is Aaron McKie. Or Lou Williams. Or whoever fits your ideal of an NBA sixth man. He can fill in at six or seven positions, or play one position every day, if needed. He also can help thread the needle between not blocking a young outfielder and covering the Phillies in case Johan Rojas or Marsh struggle. Either way, Merrifield should provide value.

Key question: Will less playing time equal more production? “Two-Hit Whit,” who led the league in hits in 2018-19 and steals in 2017-18, probably is a bygone player. But at 35, Merrifield might benefit from coming off the bench.

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: .254/.300/.367, 7 HRs, 44 RBIs, .668 OPS, 0.1 WAR.

Position: OF | Age: 25 | Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Contract status: Pre-arbitration; under control through 2027.

2024 outlook: Once a can’t-miss prospect with the Braves and traded to the A’s as a centerpiece in the Matt Olson deal, he didn’t make Oakland’s roster last spring and got sent to the Phillies on the eve of opening day. The hang-up has always been his offense. Injuries slowed him last year, too. But he’s an elite defender and still an intriguing player.

Key question: Will Pache hit? He’s a .173/.230/.273 hitter in 427 major-league plate appearances. He showed some improvement with the Phillies last season (.238/.319/.417), enough to start both games of the wild-card series in left field. But he still went 4-for-35 in September. If he finally puts it together, he’s an everyday player. If not, he’s a defensive replacement.

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: .228/.306/.344, 4 HRs, 22 RBIs, .649 OPS, 0.2 WAR.

Position: C | Age: 33 | Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Contract status: Fourth season of a five-year, $115.5 million contract.

2024 outlook: Whenever a 30-something catcher experiences a dip in offensive production, there’s a tendency to point to age and workload behind the plate. Realmuto, the modern ironman backstop, rejects that line of thinking. If anything, he says he identified a hole in his swing as the reason for his downturn last season and reworked his mechanics to fix it.

Key question: Can he start 130 games at catcher for a third year in a row? “Great question,” Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said, “because you’re almost going on uncharted territory.” Indeed, since 2010, Yadier Molina is the only catcher to start 130 or more games at age 33 or older.

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: .254/.320/.440, 19 HRs, 68 RBIs, .760 OPS, 3.1 WAR.

Position: CF | Age: 23 | Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Contract status: Pre-arbitration; under control through 2029.

2024 outlook: The Phillies never intended for Rojas’ call-up from double A last July to be permanent. But his defense proved to be so difference-making — and he looked comfortable enough at the plate — that he didn’t go back to the minors. A 4-for-43 postseason exposed how raw he remains at the plate. For now, the Phillies will give him a chance to hold down the center-field job.

Key question: Will Rojas hit? Hitting coach Kevin Long believes he will if his legs and hands work in concert. Like many young hitters with speed, Rojas wants to make contact and run, often at the expense of proper swing mechanics.

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: .241/.285/.347, 4 HRs, 37 RBIs, .632 OPS, 0.6 WAR.

Position: DH | Age: 31 | Bats/Throws: Left/Right

Contract status: Third season of a four-year, $79 million contract.

2024 outlook: It wasn’t that Schwarber was disappointed by a 47-homer season in which he posted an .817 OPS. It’s just, well, let him explain it: “I know there’s more [of a] hitter in there.” In an attempt to prove it — and to raise his average from .197 and cut down on his majors-leading 215 strikeouts — he’s focused on pulling fewer balls to right field and getting into fewer two-strike counts.

Key question: Will he stay in the leadoff spot? Schwarber isn’t the prototypical leadoff man. Rob Thomson knows that. But the manager also knows this: The Phillies are 151-100, including the postseason, when Schwarber leads off. That’s a .602 winning percentage.

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: .218/.343/.476, 39 HRs, 100 RBIs, .819 OPS, 2.1 WAR.

Position: INF | Age: 28 | Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Contract status: $1.7 million salary in arbitration; under control through 2026.

2024 outlook: Sosa has contributed in small doses since being acquired at the trade deadline in 2022. When he does play, he brings energy and solid defense. At-bats figure to be even more scarce, though, especially after the addition of Merrifield. Sosa’s biggest value to the Phillies is his ability to play shortstop.

Key question: Could he be used as a late-game defensive replacement at shortstop? Maybe. It all depends on whether Trea Turner can rebound from the most error-prone season of his career. Stay tuned.

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: .247/.300/.390, 4 HRs, 19 RBIs, .690 OPS, 0.6 WAR.

Position: 2B | Age: 26 | Bats/Throws: Left/Right

Contract status: Pre-arbitration; under control through 2027.

2024 outlook: Stott moved to second base last season and was a Gold Glove finalist. He rocked Citizens Bank Park with a memorable grand slam in the wild-card series. He also cemented his spot as part of the Phillies’ core. A batting title may be within reach one day. He was hitting .300 in mid-August before wearing down late in the season. One area he wants to improve: being more aggressive early in counts.

Key question: Will Stott be an All-Star this season? He should be in the mix, right there with Ozzie Albies (Braves), Nico Hoerner (Cubs), Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks), Matt McLain (Reds), Luis Arraez (Marlins), and Jeff McNeil (Mets).

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: .257/.314/.382, 12 HRs, 65 RBIs, .696 OPS, 2.5 WAR.

Position: C | Age: 30 | Bats/Throws: Left/Right

Contract status: $850,000 salary in arbitration; under control through 2026.

2024 outlook: Everyone loves the backup quarterback ... that is, until he has to play. That’s life as Realmuto’s backup, a job that Stubbs has dutifully held for the last two years. He has developed a following, too, as the team DJ and director of good vibes. But if the Phillies ever need him to step in for Realmuto, he must provide more production than he gave them last season, albeit in a small sample.

Key question: What would the Phillies do if Realmuto missed time? It has been argued that he’s the team’s most indispensable position player. Stubbs would get a chance to play more. The Phillies also have veteran Aramis Garcia in triple A.

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: .237/.318/.344, 1 HR, 11 RBIs, .661 OPS, 0.3 WAR.

Position: SS | Age: 30 | Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Contract status: Second season of an 11-year, $300 million contract.

2024 outlook: Known over the years for relentless consistency, the most striking thing about Turner’s first season with the Phillies was his extremes. First 107 games: .235/.290/.368, 10 homers; last 48 games: .337/.389/.668, 16 homers. His track record would suggest something in between for most of a 162-game season. He remains a durable, dynamic (30-for-30 in steals) lineup catalyst.

Key question: Will Turner’s defense be a problem? After making a career-high 23 errors last season, he ramped up his work with coach Bobby Dickerson in spring training. “I don’t think I’m the best shortstop in the world,” Turner said, “but at the same time, I don’t think I’m the worst.”

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: .290/.342/.479, 25 HRs, 88 RBIs, .821 OPS, 5.2 WAR.

Position: Reliever | Age: 28 | Throws: Left

Contract status: Second season of a three-year, $22 million contract.

2024 outlook: Alvarado had a full season of his dominant, more controlled, more consistent self last year. He ditched the curveball and threw just two pitches: a sinker and a cutter. The results were good — a 1.74 ERA with a 10.5% walk rate and a 37.2% strikeout rate. His fastball velocity was in the 98th percentile in baseball (98.7 mph). He could stand to lower the walk rate a bit; when he turned things around in 2022, that figure plummeted from 14.9% to 6.5% in the second half. That second half figure is a small sample, but there is room for improvement in 2024.

Key question: Two questions come to mind. One: Will he stay healthy? Alvarado was placed on the injured list twice last season with left elbow inflammation. In 2021 and 2022 he passed the 50-inning mark. In 2023, he pitched 41⅓. Two: Will he take the closer’s job? Thomson has historically gone with closer by committee, but he has said that he’d prefer having one guy in that spot. It’s someone’s for the taking.

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: 74 IP, 3.58 ERA, 22 SVs, 100 K, 31 BB, 1.6 WAR.

Position: Reliever | Age: 29 | Throws: Right

Contract status: Pre-arbitration; under control through 2027.

2024 outlook: Brogdon is at a pivotal point. He’s out of options and is coming off a lackluster 2023 season, in which he lost his spot on the big league team and was placed on the development list. It was a curious turnaround after his dominant 2022 playoff performance, when he posted a 2.08 ERA in 8⅔ innings. His velocity has not looked as sharp this spring, which is something to monitor.

Key question: Will he be able to keep the walks down? Brogdon saw two troubling trends in 2023: His walk rate jumped from 5.9% in 2022 to 10.2% in 2023, and his strikeout rate dropped from 26.6% in 2022 to 20.5% in 2023.

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: 60 IP, 4.42 ERA, 64 K, 25 BB, 0.1 WAR.

Position: Reliever | Age: 29 | Throws: Right

Contract status: Second season of a two-year, $7.25 million contract, with a club option for 2025.

2024 outlook: Domínguez has said that he wasn’t happy with his results last year. It’s hard to blame him. He struggled with his command, and, therefore, struggled to strike out hitters. He gave up more home runs than he had in previous years (a HR/9 rate of 1.26 in 2023).

Key question: This season he is trying to keep it simple. That means no more overthinking on the mound. It’ll be important for him to get ahead in the count, which is something he struggled with last year. Pitching coach Caleb Cotham said when Domínguez is ahead, he has “the nastiest stuff in baseball.” If he does that, the strikeouts will come.

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: 70 IP, 4.15 ERA, 79 K, 34 BB, 0.5 WAR.

Position: Reliever | Age: 31 | Throws: Right

Contract status: $2.2 million salary in arbitration; under control through 2024.

2024 outlook: Hoffman’s emergence last season was a pleasant surprise for the Phillies. It’s not every day that you find a reliable, late-inning reliever by having him throw live at-bats to your injured superstar. Hoffman was called up a few weeks after pitching to Harper and posted a 2.41 ERA in 52⅓ innings with 69 strikeouts.

Key question: For the first time in a while, Hoffman went into camp not having to a win job. It gave him peace of mind. He can be a free agent in 2025. Will he be able to replicate the dominant season he had in 2023?

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: 73 IP, 4.13 ERA, 84 K, 31 BB, 0.8 WAR.

Position: Reliever | Age: 22 | Throws: Right

Contract status: Pre-arbitration; under control through 2029.

2024 outlook: Kerkering, who will open the season on the injured list, had a whirlwind 2023 season, with an unprecedented jump from low A to the big leagues, that culminated with a trip to the playoffs. He seemed unfazed through most of it, until the very end, when he struggled with his control during the NLCS. Now, with that experience under his belt, he looks to replicate what he did last season.

Key question: Kerkering’s primary pitch was the slider/sweeper, which he threw 85% of the time. He’ll look to mix things up more in 2024. He’s thrown some four-seam fastballs and sinkers in camp, to better keep hitters on their toes. Pitch mix will be important for him this season.

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: 64 IP, 3.90 ERA, 70 K, 17 BB, 0.4 WAR.

Position: Reliever | Age: 29 | Throws: Right

Contract status: Pre-arbitration; under control through 2028.

2024 outlook: Marte is one of the few pitchers in this group who has options remaining, which could lead to some shuffling between Philadelphia and triple-A Lehigh Valley this season. After a strong spring training last year, he made his first career opening-day roster in 2023. He has good stuff (an average of 97.7 mph on his fastball) but has struggled to translate that into strikeouts.

Key question: The big thing to focus on here will be command. Marte has the stuff to induce a lot of whiffs — but whether he does it in 2024 is another story. He’ll also have to keep the home run rate down; he allowed six home runs in 39⅓ innings last season.

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: 48 IP, 4.76 ERA, 49 K, 20 BB, 0.1 WAR.

Position: Starter | Age: 30 | Throws: Right

Contract status: First season of a seven-year, $172 million contract.

2024 outlook: Nola will be the first to tell you that his 2023 season was “inconsistent.” He is a slow worker, and, in the first season with the pitch clock, he allowed 45 walks and 32 home runs in 193⅔ innings. The good news for the Phillies is that he made some changes toward the end of the year that could help him long-term. His developed a slide step, which has helped him manage traffic on the base paths. He also made a tweak to his delivery that has helped him drive the ball down and away and down and glove side.

Key question: Will Nola to continue to see the benefits of his slide step and mechanical changes? And will one season of working with the pitch clock help him in 2024? There will be another adjustment: Pitchers now have 18 seconds rather than 20, with runners on base. It’ll be interesting to see how Nola responds.

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: 195 IP, 3.84 ERA, 203 K, 39 BB, 5.3 WAR.

Position: Reliever | Age: 28 | Throws: Right

Contract status: Pre-arbitration; under control through 2029.

2024 outlook: Ortiz provided value last year as a pitcher who could go multiple innings, strike guys out, and keep the walks down. He carried that into spring training, posting a 2.70 ERA over 10 innings with 10 strikeouts and two walks.

Key question: Ortiz struggled to find much consistency last year, which led to a constant shuffle between Philadelphia and triple-A Lehigh Valley. Can he get more consistent results in 2024?

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: 55 IP, 4.74 ERA, 45 K, 16 BB, 0.1 WAR.

Position: Starter | Age: 27 | Throws: Left

Contract status: Pre-arbitration; under control through 2028.

2024 outlook: Sánchez entered camp with a guaranteed job, which was much different from his experience last spring. Thanks to a stellar 2023 season — in which he earned the trust of the front office after posting a 3.44 ERA in 99⅓ innings — he’s a lock for a spot in the rotation. With the added strength, we’ve even seen his velocity rise a couple of ticks this spring. He’s also added a cutter to his arsenal.

Key question: It’s generally harder to control and command the ball with increased velocity. Sánchez was sitting at 95 mph on March 15. Assuming he stays in that range, will he still be able to control the ball with his added velocity?

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: 130 IP, 4.36 ERA, 114 K, 38 BB, 1.6 WAR.

Position: Reliever | Age: 29 | Throws: Left

Contract status: $5 million salary in arbitration; under control through 2025.

2024 outlook: Soto showed some positive trends in his first full season with the Phillies in 2023. He has incredible stuff — including a wicked slider that clocks in around 88 mph — but has historically struggled to control it. There were stretches when he looked like the best reliever on the team, and others when he imploded on the mound. Consistency will be important in 2024.

Key question: Soto’s walk rate dropped from 12.9% in 2022 with Detroit to 8.8% in 2023. The Phillies will look to lower that in 2024. If all goes according to plan, Soto will follow the same path as Alvarado: continue to throw the ball ridiculously hard, but with consistent control and command.

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: 70 IP, 4.52 ERA, 89 K, 33 BB, 0.3 WAR.

Position: Reliever | Age: 32 | Throws: Left

Contract status: Second season of two contracts totaling three years and $22.5 million, plus a club/vesting option for 2026.

2024 outlook: Strahm has been lauded by the Phillies for being a jack of all trades. He thrived in all of the roles that were thrown at him in 2023 — starter, reliever, closer, etc. — with a 3.29 ERA and 108 strikeouts. But all of that versatility also led to added workload …

Key question: … Which brings us to our question. Strahm nearly doubled his regular season innings count from 2022 to 2023, jumping from 44⅔ innings to 87⅔. He emphasized all year that he felt good physically, but it was something the Phillies monitored closely, and will continue to do so. It’s no coincidence that they acquired a few Strahm-esque arms in the offseason. They know how valuable he is. Managing his health and workload will be a key.

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: 68 IP, 3.92 ERA, 75 K, 19 BB, 0.5 WAR.

Position: Starter | Age: 28 | Throws: Left

Contract status: $5.05 million salary in arbitration; under control through 2025.

2024 outlook: Suárez struggled to stay on the field in 2023. He began the season with a left elbow injury and strained his right hamstring in August. He posted a 4.18 ERA in 125 innings with 119 strikeouts, but it’s fair to wonder how much his injuries impacted his numbers.

Key question: The primary goal for 2024 will be keeping Suárez healthy. He said a few weeks ago that he wants to pitch 200 innings and make all of his starts. He came into camp in better shape and has avoided any injuries this spring, so that seems to be a promising start for him.

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: 150 IP, 4.02 ERA, 127 K, 53 BB, 2.3 WAR.

Position: Starter/Reliever | Age: 31 | Throws: Right

Contract status: Signed a one-year, $2 million contract.

2024 outlook: Like Suárez, Turnbull has been sidelined by injuries that have kept him off the field lately. He missed the 2022 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery and spent much of 2023 rehabbing from neck discomfort. But he has said that the Phillies’ training staff has already made a noticeable difference in how he feels, which should bode well for him in 2024. He is working with Cotham on adding a sweeper, and has said his stuff feels as good as it has since 2021.

Key question: Health will be a big one. But another will be how he transitions to long relief. Turnbull has spent his entire big league career pitching out of the rotation. It’s worth noting that Turnbull has minor league opinions remaining, but because he has accrued more than five years of service time, he can refuse a trip to the minors. If he were to accept one, he could stay stretched out and serve as rotation depth at Lehigh Valley.

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: 71 IP, 5.67 ERA, 65 K, 30 BB, 0.2 WAR.

Position: Starter | Age: 31 | Throws: Right

Contract status: Second season of a four-year, $72 million contract.

2024 outlook: It was a strange 2023 season for Walker. He posted a 7.04 ERA in the first inning. His velocity fluctuated dramatically, and so did his results. From five starts, spanning June 6-29, Walker had a 0.84 ERA with seven walks and 32 strikeouts. For his next 14, he had a 4.86 ERA with nine home runs, 38 walks, and 61 strikeouts.

Key question: Walker said his biggest goal in 2024 is to be more consistent. Velocity will play a big role in that. He added weight this offseason to try to help his velocity a bit, but in his first start of the spring, he sat at 88-89 mph. Walker has been dealing with knee soreness, and missed some time because of that, which could be contributing. His ability to raise his velocity a few ticks will be the biggest question for him this season.

Stats projection from ZiPS DC: 160 IP, 4.67 ERA, 125 K, 58 BB, 1.9 WAR.

Position: Starter | Age: 33 | Throws: Right

Contract status: Fifth season of two contracts totaling eight years, $244 million.

2024 outlook: Wheeler has shown an ability to better himself as a pitcher — even as he nears his mid-30s — which is a big reason the Phillies signed him to an extension earlier this month. Last spring, it was adding the sweeper. This spring, it’s adding the splitter. The results have been good so far.

Key question: Wheeler has gotten Cy Young votes in the past — he finished second in voting in 2021 — but has yet to win the award. He told reporters in early March that winning the award is a goal of his, and he believes the splitter can help him get there. Time will tell.

2023 projection from ZiPS DC: 192 IP, 3.61 ERA, 192 K, 54 BB, 5.1 WAR.

Join us live from Citizens Bank Park on Friday at 1:30 p.m. for an exclusive Phillies preview on Gameday Central. Join Inquirer sports reporters Alex Coffey and Scott Lauber as they dive deep into the 2024 season with a detailed look at the Phillies’ roster, key players, and what fans can expect this season.