Injuries have trimmed Phillies’ margin for error. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are again the keys.

The ceiling is lower, and so is the floor. But it’s going to come down to the aces up the sleeve. If Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are there, the Phillies should be fine. The more complicated question is whether that’s a comforting thought.

Welcome to 2023, where the best thing you can buy for $250 million is a roster with plenty of margin for error. That’s essentially what the Phillies did this offseason when they brought in Trea Turner, Taijuan Walker, and a trio of veteran relievers for a combined price tag of around $65 million per year. The easiest way to avoid a World Series hangover is to give yourself enough talent to withstand the inevitable year-after injuries and slumps.

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The addition of Turner may not single-handedly make up for the loss of six months of Rhys Hoskins and two months of Bryce Harper. The additions of Walker, Matt Strahm, Gregory Soto, and Craig Kimbrel may not make up for the losses of Andrew Painter and Ranger Suárez. But imagine where the Phillies would be if they didn’t have those options?

As things stand now, you don’t have to drink too much Kool-Aid to see a team that has 100-win potential. There’s a lot more variance now than there was at the start of spring training, when Hoskins and Suárez were both examples of things that could break right for the Phillies. But even if that upside is gone — Hoskins to a torn ACL, Suárez to a balky elbow that will almost certainly see him start the season on the injured list — the news out of Clearwater wasn’t all bad.

Back in early March, almost nobody was projecting Harper to be back on the field in May. If that happens, the Phillies will have four-plus months of a lineup that includes four of the top 50 hitters in the game. They’ll have a defense that is vastly improved over where it was at the start of last season. Pair those things with a Cy Young-caliber start two out of every five days and you have a team with a base case better than last year’s 87 wins.

There are still things that can break right in season-altering fashion. At the top of that list is Alec Bohm, who has been looking and acting like a different player since before last year’s All-Star break. It’s easy to forget that he finished last season hitting .301/.345/.440 with nine home runs in his last 84 games. By the end of the postseason, he was a solidly above-average third baseman. More important, he had the confidence of a player who knows that bigger things are in store.

The loss of Hoskins is more of an emotional crusher than anything else. The production can be replaced. At least, to a degree. There’s a healthy overlap when you compare Hoskins’ range of likely outcomes with that of a combo of Darick Hall, Edmundo Sosa, and whatever other right-handed bat ends up getting an uptick in at-bats.

Just look at Hoskins’ numbers against righties last season: 22 home runs and a .743 OPS in 498 plate appearances. That’s well within Hall’s capabilities. In fact, Baseball Reference had him projected for a .743 OPS and 11 home runs in 271 plate appearances back when they assumed he would be a half-year platoon DH.

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The outlook is murkier against lefties. Hoskins’ right-handed power played a critical role in balancing out a heart of the order that featured southpaw sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Harper. In 174 plate appearances against lefties, Hoskins hit eight home runs with a .945 OPS. The Phillies will miss that. They’ll especially miss it late in games. Where once first base was a deterrent for lefty relievers, it will now be a target.

Still, the impact of Hoskins’ absence is more holistic in nature. For one, he was up there with Bohm on the list of things that can break right. Between his impending free agency and his emergence as a prime-time player last postseason, all the pieces were in place for his best season yet. Everyone in that clubhouse knew what Hoskins proved to the world last postseason. Everyone knew what he had at stake this season. It felt like the sort of thing that could bleed into the rest of the lineup. You can’t help but wonder what losing it will mean.

Which brings us back to the aces. The biggest thing the Phillies have going for them is that Nola and Wheeler are there. They were dominant last postseason. They were dominant down the stretch. And if they dominate 2023 in a similar fashion, it will provide the Phillies with all of the rhythm and focus they need.

That might sound like a cop-out, but it’s really the bottom line. Their loads will not need to be nearly as heavy if the other things break right: if Suárez gets healthy, if Walker is dependable, if Bohm has a breakout, if the bullpen coalesces. But the Phillies need both of them to be there all season. That’s all there is to it.

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