Kyle Schwarber’s MVP window just opened with Trea Turner’s arrival to the Phillies

CLEARWATER, Fla. — Trea Turner is a preseason MVP favorite, and rightfully so. He has finished seventh, fifth, and 11th in the voting the last three seasons, and he just signed a $300 million deal to join the Phillies’ fearsome lineup in one of the best hitters’ parks in history.

Turner’s arrival in Philadelphia could have consequences beyond his own profit. Turner’s presence should make Kyle Schwarber, the reigning National League home run king, an MVP contender for this season and beyond. Schwarber no longer will hit leadoff. That, combined with baseball’s rule changes, have opened an MVP window for the remaining three seasons of the four-year, $79 million deal Schwarber signed in 2022.

“I think this guy can put up big offensive numbers,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said. “I can see where he hits 46 homers again. He’s going to add some batting average this year because there’s no shift. Hopefully he’s going to add some RBIs because he’s got Trea in front of him. There’s a chance he could put up really good numbers.”

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Only three players in 2022 faced a shift more than Schwarber, who was shifted 90.5% of the time. With third basemen playing up the middle and with second basemen playing short right field, he hit just .218. Looking for the perfect pitch, then trying to launch homers, he struck out 200 times.

He had to lead off last season. He seldom had runners aboard to move the pitcher into the stretch, to affect the defense, or to present RBI opportunities.

“It’s going to help Kyle a lot,” said hitting coach Kevin Long. Schwarber is 30, but, said Long, “I think he’s becoming a better and better hitter every year, believe it or not. He’s already got 46-home-run power. We know that. Does he have the ability to hit .280, or .290, or .300?”

Schwarber, a career .233 hitter, batted .266 in 2021, the best of his six full seasons. For argument’s sake, say he had hit .266 last year. Given his rate of about 0.37 homers per hit, that translates into 10 more homers.

Could a player with 56 homers and a .266 average win an MVP? It would be the lowest average to ever win the award. Still, five of the six players within seven points of that batting average didn’t sniff 56 homers. The sixth player was Yankees bomber Roger Maris, who broke Babe Ruth’s record with 61 homers in 1961 while hitting .269.

So yes, an MVP win with a modest batting average could happen — even with a diminished Phillies lineup.

Bryce Harper will miss at least the first two months of the season recovering from elbow surgery, but Schwarber hit those 46 homers in 2022 with Harper out of the lineup for two months. A knee injury to Rhys Hoskins, a 30-homer machine, further depleted the potency of the batting order, though the addition of Turner should offset that loss.

The Phillies lineup ranked in the top eight in most key categories in 2022. All things considered, the Phillies are at least as dangerous this season — maybe more dangerous, if Schwarber rakes.

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“The one year he hit .267? I still think he’s better than that,” Long said. “With the new rules, and the holes out there, I wouldn’t be surprised if that takes care of his average.”

Despite his poor batting average, Schwarber had a career-high 94 RBIs last season. Then again, he drove himself in 46 times, which means he drove in teammates only 48 times.

“As for RBIs, if you’re not in the leadoff spot, that number’s going to go up,” Long said. “With Trea being in front of him, he’s going to have opportunity.”

Not if he leads the league again in K’s.

“Look, I don’t want to punch out 200 times. I want to put the ball in play,” Schwarber said. “Especially now that you’re going to get rewarded for contact.”

To that end, he’ll swing ... more?

“I don’t want to take as many strikes,” Schwarber said. “Sometimes I get a little too picky. I get to too many two-strike counts.”

Schwarber found himself in two-strike counts in 68% of his plate appearances last season. By comparison, Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, who was second in the NL with 40 homers, was a two-strike hitter just 48% of the time. Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, who won the MVP, was at 57%.

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“I always think an MVP-caliber guy needs to know the strike zone. Be good in the strike zone. And he is,” Long said.

Huh?

“He needs to attack. Not be guessing as much,” Long explained. “His eyes are one of his biggest assets. He’s got to trust his eyes — trust what he sees. Hit the fastball.”

That means Schwarber needs to enlarge his preferred hitting zone early in counts.

“Maybe expanding what I’m looking for,” he said.

Two hours later, he hit the first pitch he saw 390 feet off the left-center field wall. Two days later, in his next game, he hit the last pitch he saw 390 feet off the left-center field wall.

It’s working.

He knows what he’s going to get. It’s his second season in the National League East. His second season in Citizens Bank Park. His second season on a team whose winning, nurturing culture he helped establish.

Winning always helps. Baseball MVPs routinely play for teams that miss the postseason; a position player’s WAR often indicates his likelihood to win. Harper took home the MVP in 2015 and 2021 with Nationals and Phillies teams that missed the playoffs, but he was dominant. Winning can sway voters, as it probably did in 2020 for the White Sox’ Jose Abreu in the American League and the Braves’ Freddie Freeman, neither of whom led position players in WAR.

The shift rules should benefit players such as Matt Olson, the former A’s star first baseman who saw a shift 81.3% of the time in his first season with the Braves, or maybe goose Brewers first baseman Rowdy Tellez, whose numbers approached Schwarber’s even though he was shifted upon 78.4% of the time.

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Schwarber cares little about WAR, BAbip, rOBA, or even the MVP. He follows the advice of a former Cubs teammate and three-time World Series winner. He cares only about W’s.

“The best advice I ever got was from Jon Lester: The best way to achieve things in this game is to win. If I focus on that it means I’m probably doing something good that day,” Schwarber said. “I don’t ever set hard-number standards for a season. I just try to help the team win that day.”