Five Phillies questions on opening day: Breakout candidates, wait for Harper, Painter debut, and more

ARLINGTON, Texas — Used in succession, they are two of the most hopeful words in sports.

Opening.

Day.

For six weeks, longer actually, from the dark of winter through the dawn of spring, we obsess over the opening-day roster. Who will claim the last seat in the bullpen? How will the manager fill out the bench? What’s the perfect batting order? There’s never a shortage of minutiae, right up until the pregame pomp and pageantry and the climactic first pitch.

And then, well, everything tends to go kablooey.

Opening day, festive as it is (it really should be a national holiday), is also a reminder that the baseball season is a six-month slog, a test of endurance. Talent is paramount to winning, but depth is close behind. Things will go wrong. The best teams manage to keep the car from veering off the highway.

So, as Trea Turner digs in against Jacob deGrom (what, you thought the Phillies were done with him?) at 4:05 p.m. Thursday, remember this number: 56. That’s how many players the Phillies used last season and proof of how much can — and most assuredly will — change in the next 186 days.

In the meantime, a handful of Phillies questions before the 141st opener in franchise history:

OK, so Painter won’t become the first 19-year-old to pitch for the Phillies in 43 years. A sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow ruined all the potential excitement.

But the Phillies remain optimistic that Painter will pitch this season — for good reason, according to an independent doctor.

In announcing Painter’s injury, the Phillies noted the location of the sprain (proximal, not distal). The unusual specificity wasn’t lost on Marcus Rothermich, an orthopedic surgeon at Andrews Sports Medicine in Birmingham, Ala. Rothermich recently studied UCL injuries in Division I college players and found that damage to the proximal portion of the ligament is less likely to result in surgery.

» READ MORE: The education of Phillies phenom Andrew Painter included workouts (and hoops) with Max Scherzer

“Everything that I’ve heard with Painter is encouraging in that it’s low grade, proximal — he’s 19,” Rothermich said by phone this week. “Everything about that is encouraging in terms of this being successfully treated with rest and rehab.”

Still, the Phillies won’t exhale until Painter resumes throwing. After the recommended four-week rest (he didn’t receive an injection), he’s expected to play light catch within the next few days, slowly increasing from an initial distance of 30 feet. If that goes well, he will essentially re-start spring training.

In a best-case scenario, Painter would start a game in May.

“We like to be as definitive as we can in the medical community,” Rothermich said. “But ‘cautious optimism’ is the phrase we use all the time.”

In planning to fill the fifth-starter spot with Painter or Bailey Falter, the Phillies tapped into their depth. But they scarcely added to it after signing only two minor-league free agents with major-league starts on their résumé: Jon Duplantier, who missed all of spring training with a hamstring injury, and Kyle Hart, who wasn’t invited to big-league camp.

Then, Painter got hurt. So did lefty Cristopher Sánchez (triceps) and Nick Nelson (hamstring). And then, No. 3 starter Ranger Suárez came down with inflammation in his left elbow.

That’s how reliever Matt Strahm wound up in line to start the fifth game of the season, with Michael Plassmeyer as the top option in triple A.

» READ MORE: Reliever? Starter? Phillies lefty Matt Strahm is up for anything.

Suárez had a setback after a bullpen session last week. He’s expected to try throwing from a mound again in the next few days. The Phillies pulled off an opening-day-eve trade Wednesday for center fielder Cristian Pache. Surely, they’re looking into potential pitching additions, too. Mariners lefty Marco Gonzales, whom they discussed last year at the deadline, may still be available now.

Otherwise, it’ll be (Aaron) Nola, (Taijuan) Walker, (Zack) Wheeler, and pray for quick healers — especially with only two days off in April.

All the usual caveats apply about spring training numbers meaning nothing, but here’s one that stuck out: 11 walks. Castellanos drew 11 walks in 62 plate appearances. In his previous six spring trainings, he walked a total of 12 times combined.

What does it all mean? Maybe nothing. But Castellanos drew only 29 walks in 558 plate appearances last season and swung at a career-high 39.9% of pitches out of the strike zone, many of which were down and away. Hitting coach Kevin Long got him to move closer to the plate to help reach more of those. Laying off some of them would help, too.

» READ MORE: Baseball is speeding up in 2023, and new Phillie Trea Turner shows no signs of slowing down

“I want to take my walks, but I don’t think I’m ever going to go up there looking to walk,” Castellanos said recently. “I don’t think I’m ever going to be somebody that’s sitting 2-0, hoping to get to 3-0, taking 3-1, hoping to walk. If I can be more disciplined with my swings, I think that’s a good thing. I just want to be a more complete hitter.

“In a perfect world, I don’t walk at all and I hit the [stuff] out of the ball every time. Because that’s way more fun.”

It’s necessary, too, with Rhys Hoskins out for the season.

Manager Rob Thomson often said last year that he hadn’t seen a player improve as much within one season as Alec Bohm.

But the real breakout could come now.

At the plate, Bohm’s biggest area of growth last year came in his handling of fastballs. He batted .295 and slugged .410 against heaters compared with .194 and .269 in 2021. He put on about 10 pounds of muscle in the offseason, and it was clear in spring training that he’s stronger.

» READ MORE: Why Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, and Brandon Marsh are keys to the Phillies’ making a big jump in 2023

It should lead to bigger power numbers. And although Bohm may never be a 30-homer slugger, he’s a solid bet to improve on 13 homers and a .398 slugging percentage, 17th among 22 third basemen who qualified for the batting title last year.

Sure. Lest anybody forget, the Phillies were 32-20 last season while Harper was out with a broken left thumb. And although Hoskins was in the lineup during that time, Turner was still playing for the Dodgers.

The schedule should help, too. Only 21 of the first 56 games — and 24 of the first 72 — are against teams that had a winning record last year. The Phillies don’t play the Braves or Mets until late May.

And by then, Harper may actually be close to returning, with a June return now seeming more likely than the Phillies’ initial “by the All-Star break” projection.

» READ MORE: How Bryce Harper planted the flag in Philly and got his friends to follow: ‘Cool to see guys picking the Phillies again’