Rob Thomson’s 8-0 start with the Phillies was also a lucrative play for some bettors
Riding the wave of the suddenly hot Phillies, some cashed in on a team with a brighter outlook.
The Phillies’ recent nine-game winning streak represents about 5% of a 162-game season. Small sample size, but it was lucrative for those who saw early on that new manager Rob Thomson was Casey Stengel reincarnated.
“There are a lot of people who bet baseball win streaks,” said Eric Biggio, lead baseball trader for Caesars Sportsbook. “Once a team wins a couple in a row, they just stay on them. I had somebody who tailed them for eight straight games.”
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Biggio opened the Phillies at 85.5 wins, a number that dipped to 81.5 on June 1. Just before the streak, the Phillies were 21-29 and on a pace for less than 70 wins. As Joe Girardi’s days dwindled, Biggio was more optimistic than most about the Phils. Though, even he didn’t think they’d win nine in a row (they won Girardi’s last game and eight straight under Thomson).
“The Phillies had played a really tough schedule [going into June],” Biggio said. “So there’s room for them going forward. That’s why I always kind of left hope for them to make a good run.”
Even on Monday, a day after the streak abruptly ended with a 13-1 loss to Arizona, Caesars continued to see action.
“Just this morning,” Biggio said, “we took some sharp money on them to move the win total from 84.5 to 85.5. [The action was] not only on the game-by-game basis, but also Bryce Harper to win the MVP, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler to win the Cy Young, and Kyle Schwarber to have the most home runs. We’re definitely seeing some money there.”
Schwarber and his 16 home runs was at 18-1 on Monday, well back of the Yankees’ Aaron Judge in both odds (Judge is about even money) and dingers (Judge has 24).
The same kind of thing is happening with props for the Atlanta Braves, who won their 11th in a row on Sunday to cut the Mets’ lead in the NL East from 10.5 games to 5.5. Atlanta was around 4-1 to win the division. On Monday, they were +230.
The Phillies’ streak was at seven on Friday when a Caesars bettor in New York put $2,500 on them to win the World Series at 40-1. Biggio said the $100,000 payout would be among his largest liabilities. Those same odds, as of Monday, are 35-1.
It was a similar scene at the Borgata in Atlantic City.
“They went from 15-1 to 11-1 to win the division,” said race & sportsbook director Tom Gable. “A lot of people were riding them each game during the streak. It was hurting us for a few days. Took big money on them [Sunday], so we got it back.”
This & That
Draymond Green had a total of four points in nearly 68 minutes during the two games in Boston. Heck, he had four turnovers. Green’s point prop for Monday was 6.5 with PointsBet juicing the over at -140.
Looking ahead to Thursday’s Game 6, Boston is 4-5 at home straight-up and against the spread since sweeping Brooklyn in the first round. The over also is 4-5. Golden State is 2-5 on the road against the spread in the same span.
FanDuel had to pay out a $174,900 play on Rory McIlroy to win the Canadian Open
Caesars, however, didn’t sweat an Adam Hadwin bet of $2,500 at 40-1. Hadwin shot a 3-under 277 and finished 16 back of McIlroy.
Jon Rahm (12-1), Justin Thomas, McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler (each 14-1), and Dustin Johnson (18-1) were at the top of BetMGM’s odds board for the U.S. Open, which begins Thursday. Jeff Davis, who makes the golf odds for Circa, told VSIN on Monday that his shop is “inundated” with liability on Max Homa at 50-1.
NBA Finals MVP odds
Entering Monday’s Game 5
DraftKings: Steph Curry -135, Jayson Tatum +170, Jaylen Brown +600.
PointsBet: Curry -150, Tatum +180, Brown +650.
SuperBook: Curry -150, Tatum +200, Brown +550.
FanDuel: Curry -150, Tatum +180, Brown +700.
And finally
The Lightning were +1100 to win their third consecutive Stanley Cup when the playoffs started six weeks ago. They were opening in Toronto, and it was their highest price all year, according to SportsOddsHistory. Turns out it was a gift.
The Lightning, plus +700 in the preseason, will try for their third consecutive championship when their Final series begins Wednesday. This one’s different, though. The Lightning are the underdogs.
Last year, Tampa Bay was -280 to Montreal’s +240 when Tampa won in five games.
In 2020, Tampa was -180 to Dallas’ +160 when the Lightning won in six games in the empty Rogers Center in Edmonton.
But against the Avalanche, Tampa Bay is a moderate underdog at +155 to Colorado’s -190 at BetMGM. Wouldn’t mind having that 11-1 today.
The Lightning are the first team in the salary cap era to make it to three consecutive finals.
“I go back to us being together for a long time,” Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper said after the Lightning climbed out of an 0-2 series hole to beat the Rangers four in a row in the Eastern Conference finals. “There are times when you go through those lumps of sitting here saying, ‘You have a 1-0 or 2-0 lead. Do you want to win the game, 8-0? Or do you want to win, 2-1?’ It took us time to figure that out. But when we did, this is what happened.”
The under has hit in 10 of Tampa Bay’s last 11 playoff games. The early over/under was 6 for Wednesday’s opener. Might want to hang for a bit to see if the public pushes it to 6.5.