Kyle Schwarber seems locked in to lead off again for the Phillies, with Trea Turner hitting second
The last five times Schwarber and Turner played together in a Grapefruit League game, Schwarber led off and Turner batted second. That included Sunday.
CLEARWATER, Fla. — Not every frontline player plays every game with all the other frontline players. It’s part of the charm of spring training, seeing Buddy Kennedy or Kody Clemens drive in Bryce Harper or Kyle Schwarber.
However, the last five times Schwarber and Trea Turner played together in a Grapefruit League game, Schwarber led off and Turner batted second. That included Sunday, the second-to-last game of the spring. It seemed like a clear indicator of the Phillies’ long-term plan; that is, to keep Schwarber in the top spot for a fourth consecutive season.
Schwarbs at leadoff has been the most controversial strategy of Rob Thomson’s tenure as manager. Early in 2022, his first season with the Phillies, Schwarber had an OPS of .744, spending about half his time on top of the order. Thomson replaced Joe Girardi as manager on June 3, after which Schwarber’s OPS jumped 120 points, to .864. Schwarber was at .160 and .699 through 56 games in 2023, when Turner arrived and began the season in the top spot. Schwarber then reclaimed the leadoff spot and hit .215, a 55-point improvement, with an .875 OPS, a 176-point improvement.
He might be a nontraditional leadoff hitter, but he’s been most valuable as a Phillie in that role. He averaged 204 strikeouts in his first three seasons in Philadelphia, mostly the top spot of the lineup. He led the majors in K’s in 2022 and 2023 and was third in 2024.
However, he also led the National League with 46 homers in 2022, finished second in 2023 with 47, and was third last season with 38, when he hit 15 leadoff homers, which broke by two Alfonso Soriano’s 21-year-old major-league record. Schwarber also finished seventh in OPS last season, at .851, as he raised his average to .248.
Yes, raised: He’d hit just. 208 in his first two seasons of his four-year, $79 million contract. Now, that’s nontraditional.
Asked about the lineup trend before Sunday’s game, Schwarber shrugged and said, “Don’t know. I know I’m gonna play hard today. Might be there again tomorrow. Might not. I’ll try my hardest either way. Guess we’ll know opening day.”
That’s accurate. Thomson said Sunday that Turner will lead off in the spring finale Monday, and that the lineup remains undetermined.
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Schwarber should be the main Phillies leadoff hitter for the fourth straight season, which begins Thursday at Washington.
It’s weird, but it works.
Schwarber led off in all 149 of his starts last season and the Phillies finished fifth in runs scored, won 95 games, and took their first NL East title in 12 seasons. He led off 108 times in 2023, they won 90 games, and finished seventh in runs scored. They also finished seventh in 2022, when they broke a nine-year playoff drought and won 87 games and the NL pennant. Schwarber led off 123 times.
Apparently, the song remains the same.
As it should.
Turner, of course, is a much more traditional leadoff hitter. The Phillies dabbled with Turner in the leadoff spot in 2023, but in his 15 games at the top of the order he hit .133.
Granted, that’s a small and seemingly insignificant sample size, considering he’s a .302 lifetime hitter in the leadoff spot, where he thrived with the Nationals and Dodgers. Then again, he’s been outstanding as a No. 2, No. 3, and No. 4 hitter, too. He’s been outstanding, period. Not so much this spring, since he’s hitting under .170, but he’s 4-for-9 with two doubles and a homer in his last three games, all hitting leadoff in front of Turner.
“Everything I wanted to accomplish is getting hammered home,” Schwarber said.
He’s happy. Leave him alone. Traditionalists don’t like it, and I understand that, but this is the best version of this Phillies’ roster.
Which lineup would make most sense, traditionally?
Turner, a right-handed hitter, leads off. Harper, a lefty hitter, hits second. Alec Bohm — a right-handed hitter who seems slated for the No. 4 spot again despite good numbers hitting third — hits third; and Schwarber, a left-handed hitter, bats cleanup. After all, Schwarber’s .928 OPS in the No. 4 spot is his highest of any spot in which he’s had at least 100 plate appearances.
It might make sense, eventually, to have Bryson Stott lead off. He’s a lefty hitter who steals bases. Maybe next year, when Schwarber’s contract has expired, assuming Stott has earned the spot.
There are other considerations for this roster. The main one:
Harper prefers to hit third, where he’s been for 65% of his likely Hall of Fame career, not to mention his dominant postseason hitting resumé. He’s batted second in his career with generally poor results, and he’s done in just 35 games in his six seasons with the Phillies.
Harper has said he would hit second or fourth, but the trend in the majors is to bat your best hitter first. The Dodgers do it with Shohei Ohtani. The Mets do it with Francisco Lindor.
Harper told The Inquirer that he has no interest leading off. He hit there unremarkably in two four-game stints in 2019 for former manager Gabe Kapler, an analytics devotee, and while Harper hit three homers, none was a Schwarber Special to start a game.
The Phillies went 13-2 last season in games that began with a Schwar-bomb.
Really, why mess with that?