Nine questions for the Phillies as they open spring training

Quick, how many teams have won back-to-back National League pennants since 1979?

Four.

That’s it.

It happens roughly once a decade. The 2017-18 Dodgers did it. So did the 2008-09 Phillies. The dynastic Braves repeated twice in five postseasons (1995-96, 1991-92). The Giants won the pennant in successive even-numbered years (2010, 2012, 2014) but missed the playoffs in the intervening odd ones.

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So, yes, it’s an exclusive club that the 2023 Phillies will aim to join.

“I think we’ve got a good ballclub,” said Rob Thomson, who begins his first full season as manager after taking over in June. “If we stay healthy and do what we’re supposed to do, I think the results will be there.”

Here, then, is a starting lineup of nine questions, as pitchers and catchers crank it up this week in Clearwater, Fla.:

As the offseason unfolded, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said the Phillies were “keeping a spot open for a youngster” in the rotation. In December, a team official said he “will be shocked” if Painter “isn’t our No. 5 starter coming out of spring training.” Others have shared that sentiment, though not as strongly.

It will be a huge story if Painter, who doesn’t turn 20 until April 10, becomes the team’s first teenage starting pitcher since Mark Davis in 1980. There will be workload questions after he threw 103⅔ innings in the minors last season. If he’s ready, the Phillies will find solutions. But Painter won’t win the job by acclamation. He will have to outpitch other contestants, notably lefty Bailey Falter, a reliable stand-in last season.

No matter the outcome, it will be the spring’s most intriguing plot line.

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A partial list of players who outslugged Castellanos last season: Elvis Andrus, Lane Thomas, Thairo Estrada, Wilmer Flores. No disrespect, but the Phillies were buying a different class of hitter when they went over the luxury-tax threshold to get Castellanos.

Dombrowski and Thomson suggested that Castellanos had difficulty adapting to a new team and a new city after signing midway through spring training, while also dealing with the expectations of a $100 million contract and adjusting to an expanding family (his wife had a baby last May).

In that case, making him more comfortable in Year 2 of a five-year deal will rank among the Phillies’ highest priorities.

The Phillies continue to estimate that Harper will return “by the All-Star break” from Tommy John elbow surgery on Nov. 23.

Conservative? Probably. But until he swings a bat, likely in mid- to late March, the timetable won’t change. As much as the Phillies need No. 3 in the lineup, they also will need him to hit like Harper. There’s no sense rushing.

Meanwhile, get ready for frequent updates on the most scrutinized right elbow in baseball.

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Not any one player, although signing star shortstop Trea Turner (more on him shortly) was a nice place to start.

When Harper broke his left thumb last season, the Phillies called up Darick Hall, who slugged .522 with nine homers as a DH against right-handed pitching. He will be in the mix again for the same role. But Thomson could opt for defense and versatility by keeping lefty-hitting Kody Clemens or Jake Cave instead of Hall, strictly a DH/first baseman.

Barring injuries, two spots will be filled from among Hall, Clemens, Cave, and outfielder Dalton Guthrie, all of whom have minor-league options. It will be one of the top competitions in camp.

Kyle Schwarber enjoys leading off and has produced. But he also led the NL with 46 homers last year. And in Harper’s absence, the Phillies will need left-handed, middle-of-the-order might.

Besides, Schwarber probably never would have batted atop the Phillies’ order if they had a classic leadoff option — someone like, say, Turner. More than half of Turner’s 819 career starts (57.6%) have come in the leadoff spot, where his numbers (.303/.353/.488) are nearly identical to his two-hole production (.305/.359/.493). All else being equal, Thomson has hinted he may try Turner’s speed and on-base skills ahead of Schwarber’s light-tower power.

Knowing the manager’s preference for a static batting order, it might even stick.

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Baseball will look different in 2023. Much different. For one thing, there will be more action — and less downtime between the action — if the pitch timer, ban on infield shifts, and larger bases have the desired effect.

Players and teams will need to adapt to such seismic changes. Spring training would usually be a good time to study up on the new rules, but with many players — eight members of the Phillies’ projected 26-man roster — leaving camp next month to compete in the World Baseball Classic, it may have the feel of college students cramming for finals.

The Phillies did sign active career saves leader Craig Kimbrel, and if he’s dominant early, he could get much of the ninth-inning work.

But that isn’t the plan.

Thomson intends to maintain the bullpen-by-matchups strategy that worked well last year. Kimbrel, Seranthony Domínguez, and lefties José Alvarado and Gregory Soto will all get chances to protect late-inning leads. Connor Brogdon fits in there, too.

Seven of eight bullpen seats are taken. The main question: Do the Phillies carry a traditional long man (Nick Nelson), or if Painter is in the rotation, an extra starter (Falter or Cristopher Sánchez)? Hard-throwing prospect Griff McGarry will remain stretched out as a starter.

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Maybe. But an agreement to keep Nola from free agency after the season may be tricky.

Last year, Seattle and San Diego took Luis Castillo (five years, $108 million) and Joe Musgrove (five years, $100 million) off the board with extensions that approached deals for 2021-22 free agents Robbie Ray (five years, $115 million) and Kevin Gausman (five years, $110 million).

But the market boomed this winter, with Carlos Rodón getting a six-year, $162 million contract from the Yankees. And Nola is six months younger and more durable than Rodón.

Talks could pick up over the next few weeks.

The usual injury caveats apply, but 22 of the 26 roster spots are taken, including roles for versatile infielders Edmundo Sosa and Josh Harrison. The two remaining bench spots likely will go to a left-handed hitter and/or an extra outfielder.

Simón Muzziotti bats from the left side, and like fellow prospect Johan Rojas, plays major-league-quality defense in center field. Here’s the thing: COVID-19, visa delays, and injuries have limited the Venezuelan Muzziotti to only 277 plate appearances in the last three years. He needs to play, which puts him behind righty-hitting Guthrie for a bench job.

Is Muzziotti a dark horse? Sure. But crazier things have happened in spring training.

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