Nine questions for the Phillies as spring training opens: More moves coming? Sleeper to watch?

CLEARWATER, Fla. — When Phillies pitchers and catchers gather Wednesday for their first spring-training workout, it will have been 113 days since the Game 7 gut punch at home against the Diamondbacks.

Not that anyone counted.

Well, Rob Thomson actually might have. Given the seismic thud with which the Phillies’ pennant defense ended, the manager said he couldn’t bear watching one pitch of the World Series. The sting hadn’t subsided by the winter meetings in December. Even last month, he winced at the thought of the NL Championship Series collapse.

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“I think we were all frustrated. I’m still frustrated,” Thomson said. “But once I get to Clearwater and get the uniform on, you shake it off and move forward.”

At least Thomson won’t need a program to take attendance on day one. The 2024 Phillies are a clone of last year’s edition, with two, maybe three opening-day roster spots up for grabs.

That doesn’t mean we don’t have a lineup’s worth of questions. Let’s call this our Starting 9:

Context is important. The Phillies are a big-market team with World Series aspirations, a star-loving president of baseball operations, and an owner who is poised to push the payroll over the luxury-tax threshold for a third consecutive year.

Any agent would want his players connected to them.

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But after re-signing Aaron Nola for seven years and $172 million — the third-largest contract of the offseason — the Phillies weren’t in on most other big-ticket free agents except 25-year-old Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Lefthanders Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery and versatile slugger Cody Bellinger remain unsigned. It’s expected the Phillies will keep tabs, especially on Montgomery, but unless their markets surprisingly crater, each is likely to find a long-term payday elsewhere.

Wheeler is among the best free-agent signings in club history, and as he enters the last year of his contract, the Phillies intend to prioritize an extension. But does the ace share that interest?

Here’s what we know: Wheeler signed with the Phillies four years ago despite getting a better offer from the White Sox because he wanted to stay in the Northeast. He also has developed strong bonds with Nola and pitching coach Caleb Cotham, among others.

» READ MORE: How much will it cost the Phillies to keep Zack Wheeler beyond 2024?

But Wheeler also leads all pitchers in wins above replacement since 2020. He will turn 34 on May 30, but was healthier and better in his early 30s with the Phillies than his late 20s with the Mets.

If the Phillies are willing to raise his salary into the $30 million-per-year range (he will make $23.6 million this year) and Wheeler is open to signing for, say, four or five years rather than seeking six or seven, there’s a deal to be made.

Harper has eight years left on his contract. By choice, he lacks opt-out power. Every indication is he’s happy in Philadelphia. (He even claims to be inspired by WIP callers.) He hopes to retire as a Phillie; owner John Middleton has the same wish.

One problem: Harper wants to play into his 40s, and his contract runs through his age-38 season.

And so, agent Scott Boras said in December that Harper wants to revise his deal.

» READ MORE: Bryce Harper, $330 million bargain? Sizing up his first five years with the Phillies, and what’s ahead.

Without an opt-out, Harper lacks leverage, à la Manny Machado last year with the Padres. Boras said Harper recently cited Patrick Mahomes’ restructured contract with the Kansas City Chiefs, an atypical model in baseball. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said he hasn’t ever renegotiated a contract with multiple years remaining.

The likeliest outcome isn’t a contractual redo but rather the Phillies’ tacking on a few years to get Harper through age-40. There isn’t any urgency, though. Middleton said he wants No. 3 “to never wear another jersey,” a sentiment he has surely expressed to Harper.

For now, that’s probably enough.

Barring injuries, the rotation is set, with Wheeler, Nola, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sánchez. And the Phillies have done well to keep their starters healthy over the last two seasons.

Stuff happens, though, which prompted the recent additions of Kolby Allard, Max Castillo, and Spencer Turnbull. They will join Dylan Covey, Nick Nelson, and prized prospect Mick Abel as rotation depth. But Covey is out of minor-league options, and Turnbull can’t be sent down without his consent.

» READ MORE: The Phillies have been successful at keeping their starting pitchers healthy. And it remains key to their success in 2024.

It would help if hard-throwing 24-year-old Griff McGarry is able to finally harness his elusive command. After bottoming out at the end of last season in triple A, he made changes to his delivery.

Spring training figures to be a referendum on whether McGarry will remain a starter or move to the bullpen.

The answer depends on the Phillies’ definition of “enough.”

Rojas’ defense in center field is so superb that he need not hit .302 with a .771 OPS, as he did in 164 plate appearances last season after getting called up from double A. But the 23-year-old also must be more productive than his 4-for-43, 15-strikeout postseason.

» READ MORE: The Phillies’ brass have a Johan Rojas question, but they’ve faced a similar dilemma before

So, would a .250 average and .650 OPS from the No. 9 spot in the order be enough? How about .230 and .600?

“I don’t have a number in my head, but a lot of it has to do with what it looks like,” Thomson said. “Is he frustrated? Is he getting in his own way and trying to do too much? We want to do the right thing for Johan.”

Regardless, the team’s stance on Rojas evolved during the offseason. Initially, Thomson and Dombrowski said he must win back the job in spring training. But the Phillies didn’t sign a veteran outfielder, which makes Rojas the front-runner to start opening day — and leads to our next question …

It’s one thing to say you’re waiting to see on Rojas, or not committing to Brandon Marsh as an everyday player unless he hits lefties. It’s another to actually do it when there aren’t viable alternatives?

Harper is a first baseman now. Everyone prefers Kyle Schwarber as a designated hitter. If Rojas struggles, Marsh could play center field — assuming he’s able to return from arthroscopic left knee surgery by opening day, as the Phillies expect. Then who’s in left? Cristian Pache and Jake Cave profile more as reserves.

» READ MORE: The Phillies will run it back in 2024. How will that play in the NL East? Let’s size up the competition.

The Phillies don’t want to block Rojas, so they’re unwilling to guarantee the regular at-bats that most free agents desire. But as camps get underway, maybe an unsigned outfielder — Randal Grichuk, Adam Duvall, Robbie Grossman, or Michael A. Taylor, to name a few — sees an opportunity with the Phillies.

Otherwise, the Phillies will roll with Rojas and Marsh and, if necessary, acquire an upgrade during the season.

For years, Turner was characterized by metronomic consistency. Pick the statistical split — home vs. road, righties vs. lefties, leading off vs. batting second — and his production scarcely changed.

But Turner’s first season with the Phillies was marked by extremes. Through 480 plate appearances, he batted .235/.290/.368 with 10 homers. Over his final 211 plate appearances, he hit .337/.389/.668 with 16 homers.

» READ MORE: Phillies’ Trea Turner reveals the secret behind his season-turning hot streak. He got a grip.

In Year 2, it’s fair to expect a middle ground, something like Turner’s career totals: .296/.349/.483.

One area where Turner can improve: his defense. Advanced metrics graded him as one of the worst shortstops in the majors last season.

“When he makes throwing errors it has something to do with how he caught the ball,” infield coach Bobby Dickerson said last week. “I want to work on more footwork and balance-type things, so he is catching the ball balanced more often and throwing the ball more balanced.”

Realmuto has averaged 122 starts behind the plate in the last eight full seasons, including 130 in both 2022 and 2023. Maybe it’s coincidental, but the ironman catcher’s .762 OPS last season marked his lowest total since 2015, when he was a rookie with the Marlins.

Too soon to sound alarms about a downturn? Probably.

But it’s also worth noting that Realmuto will turn 33 on March 18. And the catcher aging curve is unforgiving. You can count on one hand the catchers since 2010 who have started 120 games at age 33 or older: Yadier Molina, Russell Martin, Martín Maldonado, and A.J. Pierzynski.

When 23 roster spots are taken before camp opens, there’s little room for sleepers. Does reliever Connor Brogdon count? Probably not. He struck out 13 of 33 batters in the 2022 postseason and is out of options, making him a decent bet to win a job.

Remember this name: Carlos De La Cruz. If nothing else, he’ll be tough to miss.

» READ MORE: The tall tale of Carlos De La Cruz: How the Phillies’ 6-9 slugger has become an unlikely prospect

De La Cruz is 6-foot-9. He also banged 24 homers in double A last season. The 24-year-old slugger wasn’t protected in the Rule 5 draft for a second year in a row and didn’t get picked because of holes in his swing that lead to a high strikeout rate. But his power is undeniable for a team seeking a righty-hitting outfielder.

Could he be the surprise of camp?

There’s always one.