LVIII Phillies thoughts for Super Bowl Sunday: Outlook for Johan Rojas, Brandon Marsh, and more

With spring training days away, here are 58 things you should know about the state of the Phillies, along with a few Super connections.

Center fielder Johan Rojas' development as a hitter will be a prominent storyline for the Phillies in spring training.Read moreJose F. Moreno/ Staff Photographer

by Scott Lauber

Published Feb. 9, 2024, 1:25 p.m. ET

Super Bowl LVIII will sweep through Bryce Harper’s hometown Sunday and monopolize our attention as only the Big Game can. And then? Get ready for mitts to start popping again across Florida and Arizona.

With spring training upon us, here are LVIII baseball notes:

I. Seven months after elbow surgery, Phillies top prospect Andrew Painter is playing catch from 60 feet and “on track with his rehab,” a team source said. Best case: The 20-year-old pitches competitively in the fall instructional league and challenges for a rotation spot next spring.

II. Flashback: Painter was the main attraction in camp last year and such a serious candidate to make the team that owner John Middleton stood behind the mound to watch his first bullpen session.

III. Not saying this year’s camp will be uneventful by comparison, but barring injuries (or an unanticipated delay in Brandon Marsh’s return from unexpected arthroscopic knee surgery Friday), the Phillies have two open spots in the bullpen and maybe one on the bench. That’s it.

IV. The problem with Marsh’s left knee arose a few days ago while he was working out, according to Dave Dombrowski, and appeared to have been traced to floating cartilage that caused irritation. The Phillies expect the left fielder will be ready to play before opening day.

V. Without taking a swing, Johan Rojas went from needing to win back his job to being the likely center fielder, a testament to his difference-making defense more than his ceiling as a hitter.

VI. Rojas ranked sixth in defensive runs saved (15) among outfielders last season despite playing only 59 games after getting called up from double A in July. Toronto’s Daulton Varsho led the majors with 29 in 158 games.

VII. But Rojas’ development at the plate will still be a massive spring story line. Given his speed, it would help if he was a better bunter. In 12 attempts last season, he got only three bunt hits.

VIII. When 2008 World Series champion center fielder Shane Victorino arrives in camp as a guest instructor, the Phillies should tether Rojas to him. The Flyin’ Hawaiian had 28 career bunt hits and 52 sacrifice bunts.

IX. What if Rojas doesn’t hit early in the season? “If you’re going to make a commitment to him,” manager Rob Thomson said, “I think it’s got to be for a while and you’ve got to just shut your eyes and let him play.”

X. Crazy stat alert: Marsh has the highest batting average on balls in play ever among hitters with 1,000 plate appearances, edging Ty Cobb .384 to .383. (Hat tip: longtime former Phillies PR chief Larry Shenk.)

XI. Will Marsh finally play every day? “If he’s swinging the bat against left-hand pitching,” Thomson said. The 26-year-old hit .229/.321/.396 vs. lefties last season compared with .292/.387/.477 vs. righties.

XII. Pitcher A: 3.08 ERA, 1.011 WHIP, 31.1% K rate in 664 innings.

XIII. Pitcher B: 3.06 ERA, 1.055 WHIP, 26.7% K rate in 629⅓ innings.

XIV. Gerrit Cole (Pitcher A) since signing with the Yankees as a free agent in the 2019-20 offseason. He makes $36 million per year.

XV. Zack Wheeler (Pitcher B) since signing with the Phillies as a free agent in the 2019-20 offseason. His annual salary: $23.6 million.

XVI. With Wheeler entering his walk year, the Phillies are prioritizing an extension. Talks will pick up in spring training. Wheeler, who turns 34 on May 30, could reasonably seek a raise to the $30 million-per-year range.

XVII. An extension for Wheeler would constitute a wager on his aging well. There are encouraging signs. He added a sweeper last season and held opponents to a .198 average with it. The additional off-speed pitch will help when his fastball begins to diminish.

XVIII. Phillies career postseason ERA leaders, minimum 20 innings: Ranger Suárez (1.62), Brad Lidge (1.77), Ryan Madson (2.31), Cliff Lee (2.33), Roy Halladay (2.37), Wheeler (2.42).

XIX. Save the date: June 21. Cole Hamels will retire as a Phillie in a pregame ceremony. It’ll be similar to the retirement nights for Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard in 2019.

XX. Quiz: Which two players have worn No. 35 for the Phillies since Hamels got traded at the deadline in 2015? (answer below)

XXI. In unexpectedly emerging last season as the Phillies’ No. 5 starter, Cristopher Sánchez led with his bat-slowing change-up. He threw it one-third of the time, and opponents slugged .274 against it.

XXII. MLB is doubling down on pace-of-game initiatives by reducing the pitch clock to 18 seconds (from 20) with runners on base. Also, teams will be limited to four mound visits per game rather than five.

XXIII. After struggling to adapt to the pitch clock, especially holding runners, Aaron Nola gave in to using a slide step late in the season. It worked. It’ll be interesting to see if he sticks with it.

XXIV. Unless an agreement is reached within a few days, third baseman Alec Bohm’s 2024 salary will be determined in an arbitration hearing in Arizona. Bohm filed for $4 million; the Phillies offered $3.4 million. A panel of judges will hear the case and choose one figure.

XXV. The Phillies paid $6,977,345 in luxury tax last year, according to the Associated Press, on a $255,327,012 payroll. They’re projected to be in that range again, maybe even surpassing the second-tier tax threshold of $257 million, which would hike their tax rate to 62%. If they took the payroll above $277 million, the rate would rise to 95%.

XXVI. Bear that in mind whenever a report links the Phillies with free agents Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, or Jordan Montgomery. Even if any was willing to take a one-year deal (doubtful), the Phillies would pay a surcharge of as much as 95% on his 2024 salary.

XXVII. PECOTA, the Baseball Prospectus projection system, pegs the Phillies for 84.4 wins.

XXVIII. If that seems low, consider PECOTA’s forecast for the Orioles: 86.7 wins. And that was after Baltimore traded for ace Corbin Burnes.

XXIX. The Phillies and Mets will play two games in London on June 8-9, the third time MLB has ventured to the United Kingdom. The Yankees and Red Sox went in 2019; the Cardinals and Cubs last year.

XXX. Utley, who lives in London and works for MLB, believes baseball is making inroads there. He invited his 12- and 9-year-old sons’ friends to the Cardinals-Cubs games. “It was their first experience watching a baseball game,” Utley said, “and all four kids are now baseball fans, which I think is a very cool thing.”

XXXI. The Phillies and Braves open the season with three games at Citizens Bank Park from March 28 to 31, then don’t meet again until July 5-7 in Atlanta. Their final head-to-head matchup is Sept. 1 in Philadelphia.

XXXII. Quiz answer: Utility infielder Drew Ellis last year and one-game-wonder outfielder Óscar Mercado in 2022.

XXXIII. Player A: .284/.395/.536, 149 OPS+, 122 homers in 581 games.

XXXIV. Player B: .285/.402/.603, 169 OPS+, 128 homers in 424 games.

XXXV. Harper (Player A) in five seasons since signing with the Phillies.

XXXVI. Mike Trout (Player B) in the last five seasons.

XXXVII. Never mind that the Angels averaged 75 wins in the last seven full seasons, including back-to-back 73-win slogs, and lost Shohei Ohtani. Multiple people who know Trout said this winter they doubt he will ever request a trade from Anaheim, each citing his “loyalty” to the organization and comfort in Orange County.

XXXVIII. Go ahead and keep pointing to Kyle Schwarber’s lack of speed and high strikeout rate as reasons to drop him from the leadoff spot. Here’s why Thomson probably won’t: The Phillies have a 152-109 record, including postseason, with Schwarber atop the order.

XXXIX. Schwarber also saw 4.29 pitches per plate appearance over the last two seasons, second to only the Dodgers’ Max Muncy (4.32).

XL. Based on defensive runs saved, Trea Turner was the second-worst shortstop in the majors last season. “I want to work on his footwork and balance-type things,” Phillies infield coach Bobby Dickerson said, “so he’s catching the ball balanced more often and he’s throwing the ball more balanced.”

XLI. Harper would be at the front of the line to join Team USA for the Olympics in 2028 in Los Angeles if major leaguers are allowed to play. Some owners are reportedly open to the idea. Harper will be 35 then.

XLII. J.T. Realmuto, who turns 33 on March 18, started 130, 132, 122, 133, 120, 135, and 126 games behind the plate in the last seven full seasons. Since 2010, here’s the list of catchers who started 120 games in a season at age 33 or older: Yadier Molina, Russell Martin, Martín Maldonado, and A.J. Pierzynski.

XLIII. If depth is a consideration, and it usually is, the open seats in the Phillies’ bullpen could go to Connor Brogdon and Dylan Covey, who are out of minor league options. Covey would serve as a long reliever and potential sixth starter.

XLIV. Unless the Phillies find external upgrades, outfielder/first baseman Jake Cave and out-of-options outfielder Cristian Pache probably have spots on the bench. Or maybe Weston Wilson, with infield/outfield versatility, beats someone out?

XLV. As part of MLB’s newly created “Spring Breakout” event, Phillies prospects will face the Tigers’ prospects in a seven-inning game on March 16 in Lakeland, Fla.

XLVI. Nobody asked, but here’s our Phillies prospect lineup: CF Justin Crawford, 3B Aidan Miller, DH Gabriel Rincones Jr., 1B Carlos De La Cruz, RF TJayy Walton, SS Starlyn Caba, 2B Brian Rincon, C Eduardo Tait, LF Emaarion Boyd. Mick Abel on the mound.

XLVII. It’s the season for prospect rankings. Painter, Crawford, and Abel are No. 12, 63, and 64, respectively, in Baseball America’s top 100. MLB Pipeline has them at No. 27, 77, and 49, with Miller debuting at No. 61.

XLVIII. The starting pitching depth took a hit with Painter’s torn elbow ligament but also with Griff McGarry’s regression. The 24-year-old righty had a nightmarish finish to last season, walking 14 of 35 batters at triple A.

XLIX. Abel is expected to headline the rotation at triple-A Lehigh Valley. Other candidates include Nick Nelson, newcomers Kolby Allard and Max Castillo, maybe McGarry, Noah Skirrow, David Parkinson, and South Jersey’s Tyler Phillips.

L. After one season as a rookie-ball hitting coach, Sarah Edwards will resume her pro softball career in Italy. Edwards, the first female coach hired by the Phillies, said this week she has spoken to other teams and plans to “continue my baseball coaching career very soon.”

LI. Kudos to Royals general manager J.J. Picollo, a Cherry Hill native, on locking up star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to an 11-year, $288 million extension. Kansas City had a nice offseason, regardless of how its football team does Sunday.

LII. Brewers GM Matt Arnold credited Matt Klentak for negotiating the eight-year, $82 million contract with outfield prospect Jackson Chourio. As Phillies GM, Klentak signed Scott Kingery for $24 million before his major-league debut. Milwaukee hopes Chourio’s deal works out better.

LIII. Wondering why Kingery will be in camp after the Phillies declined his $13 million option? Because he’s not eligible for free agency yet under terms of his original minor-league contract.

LIV. Rhys Hoskins leaves the Phillies with the second-most wins above replacement (11.1, according to Baseball Reference) of any position player drafted by the team since 2004. Shortstop J.P. Crawford has 15.4 WAR, most coming after he went to Seattle in the Jean Segura trade.

LV. Hoskins, who signed a two-year, $34 million deal with the Brewers, will return to the Bank on June 3. It’s already a hot ticket. “I’m sure it will be emotional; I’m sure it will be weird,” Hoskins said. “But at the end of the day — and I think Philly will be able to appreciate this — I hope the Brewers win.”

LVI. Assistant hitting coach Dustin Lind, hired by the Phillies in November, played baseball in college but not professionally. Instead, the 35-year-old has a doctorate in physical therapy from the University of Montana. “Dustin has a different skill set, definitely a little bit unorthodox compared to your traditional hitting coach,” GM Sam Fuld said. “But we recognize that understanding human movement and how the body works is so important.”

LVII. Shawn Purdy, father of 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, pitched in the minors for eight years. Among his teammates at triple-A Richmond in 1998: ex-Phillies Paul Byrd, Wes Helms, Bruce Chen, and Villanova’s Gene Schall along with low-A Clearwater manager Marty Malloy.

LVIII. 49ers 31, Chiefs 28. Enjoy the game.