Zack Wheeler arrives at camp with a new wrinkle and another reason he’s worth the Phillies’ investment
Wheeler tries to bring something new every year, and that might be the best rationale for the Phillies to take the plunge and give him another long-term contract.
CLEARWATER, Fla. — Last year, a decade into his major-league career, Zack Wheeler came to Phillies camp with a new toy. He broke out a sweeper, a trendy variant of the slider, and wound up throwing it more than any other off-speed pitch en route to receiving Cy Young votes.
“I just try to bring something new every year,” he said Wednesday.
And with a new spring training dawning, after throwing a nice-and-easy first bullpen session (“Room service,” manager Rob Thomson called it) to catcher J.T. Realmuto in the middle of a pack of mounds at the Carpenter Complex, Wheeler revealed plans for another wrinkle: More changeups, especially to left-handed hitters.
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Lefties slugged .412 against Wheeler last season, up from .342 in 2022 and .319 in 2021. When pitching coach Caleb Cotham pointed out those numbers, among others, they went to work on finding a solution. Because when you’re as good as the Phillies’ ace, you seek out the littlest things to make you better.
It speaks to Wheeler’s competitiveness. Also, his creativity. Most of all, though, three months shy of his 34th birthday, it might be the best reason for the Phillies to take the plunge and give him another multiyear contract.
Wheeler is entering the final season of a five-year, $118 million deal that he has vastly outperformed. In 629 1/3 regular-season innings, he has a 3.06 ERA and 675 strikeouts. He was the Cy Young runner-up in 2021 and leads all pitchers with 19.6 wins above replacement since 2020, according to Baseball-Reference.
Based on FanGraphs’ WAR-to-dollars formula, Wheeler has been worth $154.1 million to the Phillies — and that doesn’t account for his 2.42 ERA in the last two postseasons.
No wonder president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski termed it a “priority” to keep Wheeler off the free-agent market next winter.
Extension talks have begun, according to Wheeler, although it’s early in the process. He said he’s “hands-off and just listening” as his agents pass along information. Opening day is six weeks away, and Wheeler said he may be open to continuing negotiations during the season.
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“I just want to be paid [based on] how I’ve done,” Wheeler said, “what they expect out of me.”
Fair enough. But those two concepts — how an athlete has performed and what a team expects in the future — don’t always align.
Based on recent performance, Wheeler can reasonably seek an annual salary in the $35 million range. Since 2020, his ERA and WHIP (1.055) stack up to Yankees ace Gerrit Cole (3.08, 1.011) in nearly as many innings. Cole makes $36 million per year, fourth among pitchers (not including Shohei Ohtani); Wheeler ranks 12th at $23.6 million.
The Phillies expect Wheeler to keep pitching at a top-of-the-rotation level this season and over the next few years. But long-term contracts for pitchers entering their mid-30s are always a risky proposition. Can they remain elite for another two years? Three? Five?
Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were older than Wheeler when they signed three- and two-year deals for matching $43.3 million annual salaries. Jacob deGrom, Wheeler’s friend and former Mets teammate, received a five-year, $185 million contract from the Rangers at age 34 and with a troublesome injury history.
Maybe Wheeler would take three or four years. Regardless, all signs point to him being a safe bet. For one thing, after dealing with injuries early in his career, he’s aging like Benjamin Button. Based on ERA+, he was 35% better than league average in his age 31 to 33 seasons with the Phillies compared to 7% better than league average in his age 28 and 29 seasons with the Mets.
But Wheeler has also shown that he’s able to evolve. When he signed with the Phillies, his fastball averaged 97 mph. Over the last two years, it has dipped to 95.8 mph. So, he sharpened his off-speed pitches and added the sweeper. He’s serious about refining the change-up.
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“It’s something I’ve had in my back pocket but really haven’t thrown it,” Wheeler said. “But I want it to be an effective pitch. I don’t want to just throw it here and there like I have in the past.”
Anything to be able to lean less on the heater.
“When the velo has been just a little lower, his ability to just make pitches, it’s as good as I’ve ever seen,” Cotham said. “The days where he can’t just blow it by guys, he’s making a lot of good pitches. The quality of his off-speed is as good as I’ve ever seen it.”
Is it possible that Wheeler, the sixth pick in the 2009 draft and such a hotshot prospect that he got traded straight up for Carlos Beltrán, is a better pitcher now than when he was in his 20s?
“Definitely,” he said. “I can command the ball a lot better, something that I haven’t always done, fastball-wise, but even off-speed. Everything’s just more consistent.”
That includes Wheeler’s routine. He has become an example for young pitchers in camp. Cotham advises them to observe how Wheeler plays catch in the outfield before a bullpen session and pays attention to the smallest details.
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By now, five years into his tenure with the Phillies, it has all become comfortable for Wheeler. He took less money because his family wanted to stay in the Northeast and said he doesn’t have regrets. He trusts the medical and training staffs and has developed a strong bond with Cotham, who even got him to lean into analytics. He’s close with fellow starter Aaron Nola.
A year ago, Nola was in Wheeler’s position. The Phillies tried to work out a contract extension, but the sides couldn’t reach a compromise. Not until November, 17 days into Nola’s free agency, when they struck a seven-year, $172 million deal.
As Nola waded into the market, he heeded advice from Wheeler.
“I remember Wheels saying, ‘Hey, if it doesn’t work out, go somewhere you’re going to enjoy,’” Nola said. “Because you are spending, for me it’s the next seven years in a place. You want to enjoy it.”
There’s no doubt about how Wheeler feels.
“I do want what I feel like I’ve earned, I guess you could say, but at the same time, you don’t always get that,” Wheeler said. “It’s just about everybody being happy. I think that is what’s the biggest deal. You don’t want to be miserable and being paid a lot. It’s being happy and getting what you earn.”