Some things to consider as the Phillies begin their West Coast swing
Perspective is always important, especially over 162 games. And the Phillies remain on a 97-win pace.
SEATTLE — Admit it: This isn’t about two weeks of bad baseball.
It’s about scar tissue.
Only nine months have passed, after all, since the Phillies stormed into the National League Championship Series and rolled in the first two games only to lose four of the next five, including Games 6 and 7 — at home, no less. And while that was happening, the Eagles marched to a 10-1 start before dropping five of their last six regular-season games.
Those wounds may never heal.
» READ MORE: Keeping their starting pitchers healthy is key to a World Series run. Here’s how the Phillies plan to do it.
But perspective is always important, especially over 162 games. Let’s offer up a hearty dose, then, free of charge, as the Phillies began a 10-game road trip Friday night in the Pacific Northwest amid a 4-11 skid that has the fan base freaking out.
The Astros endured a 3-12 stretch in April; they were tied for first place in the American League West entering play Friday.
Before the All-Star break, the Yankees went through a 3-12 free fall that caused them to fumble a division lead. They just swept the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park to pull back into a tie atop the AL East.
In each of the Phillies’ last 14 playoff seasons — 2023, 2022, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 1993, 1983, 1981, 1980, 1978, 1977, and 1976 — they had at least one 15-game stretch in which they went 5-10 or worse. In 2011, they went 4-12 through the middle of September, including eight consecutive losses. In 2022, they survived a 4-11 spell to grab the last wild-card spot.
So, while it may seem like the Phillies are hand-waving this skid when they recite “it’s baseball” platitudes, they’re also speaking from experience. Losing streaks happen, even to teams that were on a 114-win pace in early June.
“That’s why you don’t see teams win 115 games every year,” manager Rob Thomson said with the Phillies still on pace for 97 wins. “Because it’s difficult. There’s a lot of ups and downs. There’s injury factors you’ve got to ride through. There’s slumps you’ve got to ride through. Even though we got off to a good start, it’s not how you start. It’s how you finish. We’ve got to get back in gear here and get going.”
» READ MORE: The Phillies have a ‘complete’ roster after the trade deadline. Is it enough to win the World Series?
It’s also notable that the Phillies haven’t played well for a while, mostly against better competition. Entering the weekend, they were 20-23 since returning from London on June 10, with series losses at Boston, Baltimore, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota, and at home against the A’s, Guardians, and Yankees.
And the road won’t get easier with 10 games in 10 days in three cities against the contending Mariners, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks.
Here, then, are three things that bear watching:
‘Stars got to show up’
Last Sunday, Bryce Harper was asked if he would be satisfied with the Phillies’ roster if they didn’t make a whopper at the trade deadline.
“Yeah,” he said. “[The] superstars got to show up.”
Then, Harper went hitless against the Yankees.
If anything, the career-worst 1-for-30 slump that Harper lugged to Seattle was proof that no hitter is immune to struggles. Nobody doubts that he will bust out of it and resume his chase of a third NL MVP award.
» READ MORE: An imaginary slump and a weird schedule: Math and common sense say the Phillies will be fine
But Harper’s funk coincides with downturns from the Phillies’ other big hitters. Some of the numbers since the All-Star break:
Trea Turner: 8-for-48, 13 strikeouts
Kyle Schwarber: 9-for-41, 18 strikeouts
J.T. Realmuto: 6-for-26, zero extra-base hits
Brandon Marsh: 5-for-34, 12 strikeouts
“I’m excited to turn the page to August,” Harper said. “I think probably a couple other guys are as well.”
Out of control
A 3-9 record since the All-Star break might be 7-5 if the bullpen didn’t blow three-run leads in losses to the Pirates (July 19), Twins (July 24), Guardians (July 28), and Yankees (Tuesday).
The common denominator in those games: Not enough strikes.
Orion Kerkering appears to have regained his control after a two-game bout of wildness in Minnesota last week. Matt Strahm issued six walks in 40 innings before walking Juan Soto and Aaron Judge back-to-back and giving up a three-run homer to Yankees newcomer Jazz Chisholm Jr. this week.
» READ MORE: Carlos Estévez was the Phillies’ top trade-deadline pitching target. His former coach explains his rise.
Even Jeff Hoffman has walked five of the last 33 batters after walking one of the previous 76. It’s a testament to his swing-and-miss stuff that he escaped without giving up a run.
“Guys have to throw strikes when they’re coming out of the ’pen,” Thomson said. “They’ve got to get ahead, and they’ve got to trust their stuff. Because [blowing] three-run leads are the function of walks, for the most part. Usually, that’s what it is. They’ve got to trust their stuff [and] go get guys.”
Back to work
The most important pitches thrown over the next few days might be from Ranger Suárez.
Suárez has dealt with tightness in his back for nearly a month and landed on the injured list after feeling soreness during a bullpen session last Friday. Thomson said the Phillies are being “super cautious,” but if they believed the issue would linger, they’d have been more aggressive about adding a starter at the trade deadline.
It’s possible Suárez could make his next start in Arizona next week, at which point the Phillies could either go to a six-man rotation or wait for Taijuan Walker to return before using a sixth starter. Meanwhile, the Phillies will hope Suárez will get a second wind for the stretch run.
» READ MORE: From teen prospect in rural Venezuela to All-Star: How Ranger Suárez became ‘that guy’ with the Phillies
“He’s pitched through some things, and it just got to the point where we want to get this right, especially if it trends a little worse or starts moving around to different spots,” pitching coach Caleb Cotham said. “You could call it a blessing in disguise, maybe just a blessing, that we can have a chance to just take a breath. We can work through things.
“I think it’s going to be a good thing long-term.”
Watch this space.