What will top prospect Johan Rojas bring to the Phillies? Quick thoughts on the promotion.

Don’t get too excited.

That’s the executive summary of the Johan Rojas promotion. The Phillies called up their top hitting prospect on Friday to replace backup center fielder Cristian Pache, who hit the injured list with a case of elbow irritation. Rojas has talent, and he’s been hitting the ball well at double-A Reading, but this looks like a move made more out of necessity than merit.

At the same time, we’ll see.

It’s not clear exactly where Rojas will fit. Most likely, he’s here to replace Pache and nothing more: bench bat, backup center fielder, late-game defensive replacement, stuff like that.

The numbers over his last 55 games are super impressive: a .926 OPS and eight home runs in 260 plate appearances. But there are several reasons to doubt whether he’ll even get a chance to hit at the big league level, let alone prove that he is capable of it.

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A few points of interest about Rojas:

1) He’s a right-handed bat who doesn’t hit lefties all that well.

The real opening for playing time is center field stems from Brandon Marsh’s struggles against lefties (33 strikeouts in 68 ABs in 2023). But Rojas hasn’t hit them well, either. Over the last three seasons, he is hitting just .225/.294/.340 with three home runs in 204 plate appearances against lefties. That includes this year’s .208/.296/.375 line, albeit in only 55 plate appearances. Will it really make sense to take Marsh’s power potential out of the lineup (6 extra-base hits in 68 ABs vs. LHP in 2023)?

2) Rojas has some pretty extreme home/away splits this year.

Reading is a notoriously hitter-friendly environment, so it’s worth noting that 21 of Rojas’ 34 extra-base hits and five of his nine home runs have come at home. This, despite him having 22 more plate appearances on the road. Away from Reading, he has a .699 OPS (home: 1.010) with a .265/.323/377 batting line.

3) Marsh appears to have broken out of the epic six-week tailspin he was in following his blistering start to the season.

Over his last 21 games, Marsh is hitting .320 with an .848 OPS and nine extra-base hits. That’s excellent offensive production out of center field and a massive bonus for a guy who only needs to hit eighth or ninth in the order.

Before that, though, Marsh had a 39-game stretch where he hit .197 with a .535 OPS and four extra-base hits. That’s ... not elite.

Marsh is a difficult player to wrap your head around. The hot stretches more than make up for the cold stretches. You can see that in his overall numbers: a .275/.349/.450 batting line with seven home runs. He’s been about 20% above league average as a hitter per OPS+ (118), which ranks 11th among MLB regulars in center field. But those numbers are the result of alternating and extended stretches of extreme hot and extreme cold.

4) The most intriguing element of Rojas’ game is his stolen base potential.

He is tied for second in the Eastern League with 30 steals and has been caught only eight times. Last year, he finished a ridiculous 62-for-67 between Reading and Jersey Shore. Rojas could get a chance to make his mark on the base paths. Rob Thomson has used Pache as a pinch-runner five times this season, including three of the Phillies’ last 10 games heading into the All-Star break. Mostly, he has remained in the game in place of Kyle Schwarber in left field in the Phillies’ final trip through the order.

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Long story short, this is probably a short-term move that could easily prove to be anticlimactic. The Phillies have a quality regular center fielder in Marsh. Pache will be eligible to return from the IL in a week.

Still, it will be fun to get a glimpse of what the Phillies have coming in center field. Rojas may not be the top young option for long, given the way 2022 first round pick Justin Crawford has been hitting at low-A Clearwater (.345/.390/.464 with 35 steals).

We shall see.