Phillies at the halfway point: Harper’s MVP case, All-Star picks, and what’s the trade deadline plan?

Four months after owner John Middleton gave a spring-training keynote speech that, as one player recently recounted, “made guys want to run through a brick wall,” the Phillies will reach the midpoint of their season Thursday night with the most wins and best record in baseball.

Raise a glass?

No chance.

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A 53-27 mark is swell and all, but last season, the Braves and Rays were tied for the best 81-game record, which didn’t cushion the blow when neither won a playoff series. In 2022, the Yankees started 58-23 and got swept in the AL Championship Series. The 2021 Giants were 51-30 and the 2019 Dodgers 55-26 at the halfway point — and both bowed out in the divisional series.

Trust Bryce Harper, then, when he says the Phillies are well aware that “we’ve got a long way to go.”

But the Phillies also have a club-record payroll (nearly $260 million for luxury-tax purposes) and a World Series-or-bust mission after near-misses the last two years. So, their view from the top of the standings after Game 81 only amplifies a few second-half questions.

Let’s put it this way: Middleton’s private jet will be crowded.

Harper will start at first base for the National League, and Alec Bohm is tracking to start at third based on a sizable lead in the fan voting. Despite missing six weeks with a hamstring strain, Trea Turner is running second among shortstops behind the Dodgers’ Mookie Betts, who won’t play because of a broken hand.

» READ MORE: The Phillies won’t lack for All-Stars. Here’s the cases for each candidate, including two intriguing long shots.

On the pitching side, Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suárez seem like locks, with Cristopher Sánchez and Aaron Nola also presenting compelling cases, especially as replacements for starters who pitch the day before the break and can’t go on July 16 in Arlington, Texas.

And if any non-closers are going to receive All-Star recognition, Jeff Hoffman (1.08 ERA through Wednesday) and Matt Strahm (0.86) have been dominant.

After Realmuto had surgery June 12 to remove torn cartilage from his right knee, the Phillies outlined a one-month recovery, which would almost bump up against the All-Star break from July 15-18. It would be convenient timing. Baseball’s four-day hiatus could buy the iron man catcher additional rest.

If it’s up to Realmuto, though, he’ll be back before then.

“I’d rather be able to play those few games before the break,” he said recently. “But if my body’s not feeling right, I’m not going to push it.”

» READ MORE: J.T. Realmuto is the Phillies’ most irreplaceable player. So how exactly do they replace him?

You can be sure the Phillies won’t either. They miss Realmuto, both for his right-handed bat and his steady hand behind the plate. But it isn’t as though they’re under water without him. Garrett Stubbs and Rafael Marchán have split time in his stead, and the Phillies are 8-7 against the Red Sox, Orioles, Padres, Diamondbacks, and Tigers.

Realmuto didn’t travel with the team to Detroit because he has not yet ramped up baseball activities. His timeline figures to become clearer over the next week.

Before they get to that question, the Phillies must chew on a few others.

The answers will determine whether the Phillies a) pursue a righty-hitting upgrade to platoon outfielders Whit Merrifield and Cristian Pache; b) trade for a full-time center or left fielder; or c) do none of the above before the 6 p.m. deadline on July 30.

» READ MORE: What if the Phillies’ outfield production doesn’t improve? Here are a few trade options to watch.

So, the Phillies were encouraged to see Marsh bang his first homer in two months Wednesday in Detroit and notch two hits against lefty relievers within the last week. But he still hasn’t faced a lefty starter (non-opener) since May 16.

Rojas has played well since his return to triple A two weeks ago, going 12-for-29 (.414) through Wednesday. The Phillies wanted him to bunt more often. He dropped down two sacrifice bunts earlier this week.

In the five weeks until the deadline, maybe the Phillies will recall Rojas, turn Marsh loose against lefties, and make a decision before president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski charts a trade-deadline course. But the team ranks 21st in OPS in left field (.676) and 26th in center field (.596) with Marsh and Rojas getting the majority of the playing time.

That explains the speculation about the White Sox’s Luis Robert Jr., the Angels’ Taylor Ward, and if their teams choose to sell, the Rays’ Randy Arozarena and the Nationals’ Lane Thomas.

Remember how much sense it made when the shortstop-needy Phillies signed Turner as a free agent before last season? Robert, as a center fielder, represents a similarly logical fit. He does have a troubling injury history. And the White Sox can reasonably seek a multi-prospect haul for a 27-year-old (on Aug. 3) who is under contract through 2027.

The Phillies didn’t like the acquisition cost relative to the inventory of outfielders at last year’s deadline. The market will favor the sellers again, with the Dodgers, Braves, Mariners, Twins, and other contenders seeking outfield help.

» READ MORE: How do the Phillies chase a World Series title, and long-term winning? Follow the money.

But Dombrowski has traded away top prospects before, including in December 2016 with the Red Sox when he flipped Yoán Moncada and Michael Kopech to the White Sox for Chris Sale.

Could he look to Chicago’s South Side for another blockbuster now?

Harper went into the Phillies’ 81st game batting .305/.402/.585 for an NL-leading .987 OPS. He had 20 homers, five less than Shohei Ohtani’s league lead, and 57 RBIs.

Oh, and he was third among first basemen with four outs above average, according to Statcast.

Considering that Betts isn’t expected to return until August, Braves star Ronald Acuña Jr. is out for the season, and a full-time designated hitter (such as non-pitching Ohtani or Atlanta’s Marcell Ozuna) has never been named MVP, Harper is lining up as the NL’s frontrunner.

» READ MORE: From spring training: Bryce Harper begins the second act of his career as a first baseman. Is a World Series crown next?

Harper won the MVP in 2015 with the Nationals and 2021 with the Phillies. One more and he would join Barry Bonds (seven), Yogi Berra, Roy Campanella, Joe DiMaggio, Jimmie Foxx, Mickey Mantle, Stan Musial, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodríguez, Mike Schmidt, and Mike Trout as three-timers.

But another MVP would put Harper in an even more exclusive club. He would be only the fifth player to win the award at multiple positions, following A-Rod, Robin Yount, Musial, and Hank Greenberg.