Phillies trade deadline: The cost of pitching insurance, defense vs. power, and other questions

Never mind that the trade deadline is less than two weeks away. (Set your alarm for 6 p.m. on Aug. 1.) Or that it represents the last in-season opportunity to make high-impact roster moves for the stretch drive — and perhaps beyond.

For many teams, the line between buying and selling remains blurrier than a movie screen from the front row of the theater.

”There’s only a handful of teams that have really declared they are moving players,” Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said this week. “There’s also a group of clubs that are pretty much saying, ‘Let’s see what happens.’ It may go past [next] weekend. That would not surprise me. So, you have to be prepared for that.”

» READ MORE: MLB trade deadline preview: Righty-hitting outfielders who could be fits for the Phillies

Let there be no ambiguity about the Phillies’ intentions. Entering the weekend, they had the second-best record in the National League since June 1. Attendance at Citizens Bank Park is up nearly 40% from the same time last season. The payroll is approaching $250 million, a club record, and may keep rising.

“We have a generous owner that wants to win,” Dombrowski said of John Middleton. “I’ll just put it that way.”

As commentator Jim Cramer — a Phillies fan, by the way — often screams on his cable business show, “Buy! Buy! Buy!”

It isn’t as clear-cut for everyone.

Through Thursday, 10 teams — the Nationals, Mets, Cubs, Cardinals, Pirates, Padres, Rockies, Athletics, Royals, and White Sox — trailed by more than five games in both the division and wild-card races. The other 20 were either firmly in contention or waiting to set their sail based on the next 10 games.

Take, for example, the Red Sox. They have walk-year players (Adam Duvall, Kiké Hernández, James Paxton) who could be peddled for a mid-level prospect. But they’re also hanging around the wild-card mix. Should they add to their roster or subtract? Or both?

By next weekend, maybe things will be clearer in Boston ... and Seattle ... and San Diego … and Anaheim, with Shohei Ohtani. Maybe not. Maybe the GMs of those teams won’t decide what to do until they awake on Aug. 1.

» READ MORE: Phillies will know by the trade deadline if Bryce Harper can play first base, Dave Dombrowski says

In any case, Phillies officials are assessing how aggressively to pursue upgrades. Dombrowski has made no secret of the team’s biggest needs: a right-handed hitter and starting pitching depth. Based on his record of more than four decades of wheeling and dealing, it’s likelier than not that he will take action in those areas.

But there’s also an argument for the Phillies to stand pat. Especially if, as expected, the buyers outnumber the sellers.

Here, then, are three questions Dombrowski and his front-office lieutenants will ponder between now and Aug. 1.

Last year, the Phillies told teams that starting pitching depth was their top deadline priority. They didn’t pursue high-end options Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas, who were swapped for prospect-rich packages, but found the offers for the next tier of starters to be almost as exorbitant.

It wasn’t until about 15 minutes before the deadline that they made a deal with the Angels for Noah Syndergaard. He started pivotal games in August and September (5⅔ scoreless innings in Game 158 at Washington comes to mind) and two in the playoffs. But two months of Syndergaard wound up costing outfielder Mickey Moniak, finally healthy and playing well at age 25.

A year later, the Phillies’ rotation needs — and the market conditions — are similar.

» READ MORE: Touted pitching prospect Andrew Painter needs Tommy John surgery, Phillies say

Dombrowski is happy with the “Big Four,” as he calls Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, and Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sánchez has brought competence to the No. 5 starter spot. But the organizational depth is scant and took a hit this week with top prospect Andrew Painter almost certainly heading for Tommy John elbow surgery.

Team officials need not be reminded that Wheeler missed a month late last season with elbow inflammation. In his absence, Bailey Falter came up from triple A and pitched well. If a starter got injured this year, who would replace him?

”Falter has thrown better, [Nick] Nelson is depth,” Dombrowski said. “[Mick] Abel and [Griff] McGarry are depth [at double A], but I never know how they’re going to react as young guys. [Starting pitching depth] is something we’d keep our eyes open to.”

One name to file away: Michael Lorenzen. The Phillies looked into signing the 31-year-old right-hander in the offseason. Entering the weekend, he had a 3.75 ERA in 16 starts for the Tigers and roughly $4 million left on a one-year contract.

But Lorenzen (or a similar pitcher) would slot in as the No. 5 starter and turn Sánchez into an insurance policy akin to Falter last year. And if the offers for a No. 5 starter resemble Syndergaard-for-Moniak, the Phillies will need to decide if it’s worth it.

”I’ve never assessed our trades [after the fact],” Dombrowski said. “We made a trade that helped us get to the World Series. Mickey Moniak’s playing very well, and I’m very happy for him. He’s doing great. Didn’t play quite as well over here, and sometimes you need a change of scenery.”

» READ MORE: As Bryce Harper braces for a new position, a former Phillies player weighs in: ‘First base is not easy’

It has been four months since Rhys Hoskins went down with a season-ending knee injury late in spring training, and the Phillies are still looking to replace his power from the right side of the plate. Dombrowski outlined the ideal scenario for doing so.

Spoiler: It involves Bryce Harper switching positions.

”If Bryce can move to first base, it allows us then to free up the DH spot and put Kyle [Schwarber] there a little bit more,” Dombrowski said. “And then, we have the ability to decide what we want to do in left field.”

Righty-hitting outfielders figure to outnumber first basemen on the trade market. Duvall could be an option if the Red Sox sell off parts. If the Angels sell, Hunter Renfroe would be a fit to play left field. From 2018 to 2022, Renfroe (.240/.302/.490, 127 homers) slugged at a similar rate as Hoskins (.241/.350/.483, 130 homers).

But what if the Phillies choose to double down on defense?

Schwarber, signed as a DH but pushed into left field every day after Harper tore an elbow ligament last season, is 19 runs below average in defensive runs saved, according to Sports Info Solutions, making him the worst defender in baseball this year. Johan Rojas, who got called up last week, is the anti-Schwarber, an elite defender but raw at the plate.

» READ MORE: Known for elite defense, Johan Rojas’ growth as a hitter could make him Phillies’ future center fielder

If the Phillies put Brandon Marsh in left field and Rojas (or Cristian Pache when he returns from minor elbow surgery) in center — moves that are predicated on Harper’s viability at first base — would they actually save more runs than a righty-hitting left fielder could create at the plate?

Phillies officials are conducting that analysis.

”There’s some different type of thought processes that we [could] have,” Dombrowski said. “Maybe you end up playing the defense over the offense at that particular time. Maybe we don’t go outside the organization. Let’s see how Rojas does. There’s no question he’s outstanding defensively, so he’s going to add to you in that regard. Maybe we don’t do anything in that regard.”

But the Phillies have signaled to teams that they want to add a right-handed hitter to an offense that has been more inconsistent than they envisioned before Hoskins got injured. That likely remains the preference.

Most of the Phillies’ trade talks last summer began — and also ended — with requests for Painter, Abel, or McGarry. They were steadfast in refusing to move their three prized pitchers, at least not in any of the deals they discussed.

But the Phillies did trade catching prospect Logan O’Hoppe (for Marsh) and ascendant right-hander Ben Brown (for reliever rental David Robertson).

Dombrowski has a history of trading from areas of organizational depth. O’Hoppe, for instance, was blocked by J.T. Realmuto, so the Phillies cashed him in for a young, controllable center fielder.

» READ MORE: Justin Crawford’s stellar first full season in the minors speeds all the way to the Futures Game at 19

A year later, would the Phillies trade from a center-field stockpile that includes Pache, Rojas, Simón Muzziotti, and 2022 first-round pick Justin Crawford behind 25-year-old Marsh? One rival talent evaluator said each of those players is well-regarded within the industry.

And who is this year’s version of Brown, a former 33rd-round pick who popped on the prospect radar last year with a breakout first half?

”You’re never looking to trade your top prospects,” Dombrowski said. “But I can’t also tell you that any time somebody drops something on your lap that you can’t say no.

“I don’t think I’ll say any more on the trading stuff. I think I’ve said enough.”

That’s fine. Dombrowski’s actions over the next two weeks will speak the loudest.