What the Phillies’ change in plans at the trade deadline could mean this season and beyond

The main takeaway is the Phillies are hitching their NL pennant defense to their biggest stars. But their change in strategy also could pay off in the trade market this winter.

If the Phillies are going to make another run at the World Series, stars such as Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper will have to lead them there.Read moreYong Kim / Yong Kim / Staff Photographer

by Scott Lauber

Published Aug. 4, 2023, 12:31 p.m. ET

In the third inning of his first game as a first baseman, two weeks ago in Cleveland, Bryce Harper tumbled over a railing and into the photographers’ well to catch a pop-up.

“Three accountants passed out upstairs,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson cracked.

And the front office began scouring opposing rosters for a right-handed hitter to play left field.

That was the Phillies’ initial trade deadline strategy, multiple sources confirmed this week. Once they knew for sure that Harper could play first base at game speed — an experiment that the star slugger volunteered for in April and worked at for three months, as his reconstructed right elbow ligament healed — they realized an opportunity to turn Kyle Schwarber back into a designated hitter and find a left fielder to replace the right-handed power they have missed since Rhys Hoskins blew out his knee late in spring training.

But as the buzzer sounded at 6 p.m. Tuesday for the trade deadline, the Phillies stood pat, at least in the outfield.

They did add pitching insurance, identified as a need by president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, by acquiring righty Michael Lorenzen from the Tigers for single-A infield prospect Hao-Yu Lee. They also picked up utility infielder Rodolfo Castro — a younger, switch-hitting alternative to seldom-used Josh Harrison.

Yet even with multiple outfielders available in the final hours of baseball’s annual midseason swap meet — Boston’s Adam Duvall and Seattle’s Teoscar Hernández were never actually traded after weeks of speculation — the Phillies took a pass.

Why the change in plans? And what did it reveal about how club officials view an offense that was built to slug but has been league average — or even slightly below — in almost every statistical category?

The main takeaway is undeniable. The Phillies are hitching their National League pennant defense to their biggest stars: Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, and Trea Turner, the most disappointing of the bunch. None has had the season that everyone expected. Each, in his own way, must be better in August and September for the Phillies to emerge from a seven-team gaggle for three NL wild-card spots and embark on another run to the World Series.

“We have some good offensive names, and we like their ability,” Dombrowski said. “Now we have to go out and do it. And we have confidence in them that they’re going to do it.”

But this was about more than merely throwing down the gauntlet to five sluggers who represent 45% of a club-record $255 million luxury-tax payroll and combined through Thursday for a .243/.321/.418 batting line. (League average was .248/.320/.412.)

Whereas the Phillies initially focused on adding a bat, internal discussions caused them to rethink their deadline priorities and draw conclusions that might help explain their tepid interest in Duvall, Hernández, and others, including Tommy Pham, Mark Canha, and Randal Grichuk, who were dealt to Arizona, Milwaukee, and the Angels, respectively.

Let’s break down that decision and delve into one potential offshoot of their approach to the deadline:

Don’t be ‘redundant’

Like most teams, the Phillies fanned out their scouts in the days before the deadline.

There wasn’t much to see.

For one thing, the supply didn’t come close to meeting the demand. Given how winnable both Central divisions appear to be, plus the addition last year of an extra playoff team (and the 2022 Phillies’ dash from the NL’s third wild-card entrant to Game 6 of the World Series), the buyers always figured to outnumber the sellers at this deadline. But then the bubblicious Angels, Cubs, and Padres chose to add rather than subtract, tilting the field even more.

“I would describe this as a very strong seller’s market,” Dombrowski said once the deadline passed. “There were very few clubs that were actually looking to sell and a lot of clubs that were willing to buy.”

And the Phillies weren’t crazy about the inventory.

They spoke with the Rockies about Grichuk, according to a league source, but seemed to prefer other outfielders, including Duvall. Colorado wound up packaging Grichuk with first baseman C.J. Cron to extract a second minor-league pitcher from the Angels.

Pham and Canha, like most players in the Mets’ clubhouse, were eminently available amid owner Steve Cohen’s about-face sell-off. But they went 8-for-48 with two extra-base hits and 12-for-49 with three extra-base hits, respectively, from July 4 through the deadline. Pham also missed time with a groin injury.

In Duvall and Hernández, the Phillies saw potentially helpful right-handed power. But it came with a familiar trade-off: a lot of swings and misses.

Entering deadline day, Hernández struck out in 32.1% of his plate appearances and led the majors with 143 whiffs; Duvall had a 30.1% strikeout rate. As a team, the Phillies struck out 24.1% of the time, the seventh-most frequent rate in baseball, with Schwarber (29.4%), Castellanos (27.1%), Realmuto (25.3%), Turner (24.1%), and Harper (22.9%) all striking out more often than league average (22.5%).

“We have a lot of stars on our club, and sometimes you just need complementary players to help them,” Dombrowski said. “And you have to be careful because if you acquire guys that are very similar to what you have from an ability perspective, you can be redundant.”

Especially in 2023. The new rules favor speed and contact. Consider the American League-leading Orioles, who make more contact and take more extra bases on singles and doubles than league average. The same goes for the Diamondbacks and Reds, surprise contenders in the NL. It isn’t a coincidence that Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Arizona were eighth, ninth, and 10th in runs per game entering the weekend.

The Phillies ranked 16th. And their most consistent offensive player has been Bryson Stott, who also had the team’s lowest strikeout rate (15.7%).

As the deadline neared, they looked into outfielders who weren’t as strikeout-prone. But the Cardinals wanted controllable pitching for Dylan Carlson, a switch-hitter who can’t be a free agent until after the 2026 season. The Phillies talked to the Yankees about Harrison Bader but were unable to match up on a deal.

They made a calculation, then, to stick with 22-year-old rookie center fielder Johan Rojas — and eventually Cristian Pache, expected back later this month from elbow surgery. Rojas, an elite defender, is a work in progress at the plate. But he has speed and made consistent contact in the minors, dimensions that Duvall and Hernández lack.

But it’s all predicated on the Phillies’ best players being their best players. Without that, any complementary addition wouldn’t have made much impact anyway.

“From the right-handed-hitting perspective, we talked long and hard,” Dombrowski said. “We really like the job that Rojas has done for us. He’s a young kid coming up that’s giving us energy. We like him. As we know, speed makes a great deal of difference in today’s game.

“Not that we didn’t inquire, but there were very few guys that were available, and some of the prices we just didn’t want to pay based upon how we felt about him.”

Not an arms dealer

Last year, Dombrowski labeled top prospect Andrew Painter and fellow touted pitchers Mick Abel and Griff McGarry as nonstarters in trade discussions.

The Phillies didn’t waver from that stance.

“We really didn’t engage with talking about them with other people,” Dombrowski said. “We really try to protect them. Nobody’s untradeable. But we really like having them in the organization.”

Sure, but this trade market also lacked difference-making players for whom the Phillies might have considered giving up a young pitcher.

Check back in the offseason.

Although the Phillies and Aaron Nola were unable to agree on a contract extension in spring training, it’s believed that both sides still prefer to work out a deal in the offseason. But once Nola hits the market, he figures to draw interest from multiple teams even off an inconsistent walk year in which the 30-year-old righty is allowing more home runs than ever.

The Phillies have other pitching considerations. Zack Wheeler is eligible for free agency after next season. And Painter, the 20-year-old phenom whom the Phillies hoped would crack the rotation and make his major league debut this season, recently had Tommy John elbow surgery and is expected to miss 2024.

Painter’s injury, a lack of depth in triple A, and McGarry’s continuing struggle to throw strikes forced the Phillies to sacrifice a coveted prospect for Lorenzen, who will provide cover in case of an injury to Wheeler, Nola, Ranger Suárez, or Taijuan Walker. Lee, 20 years old with solid contact skills, was their No. 8 prospect, according to Baseball America’s rankings.

But what if, as expected, the Brewers and Guardians listen to offers for aces Corbin Burnes and Shane Bieber, respectively? Both will be 29 next season; both will be eligible for free agency at season’s end.

Dombrowski said he isn’t sure yet how Painter’s absence will alter the pitching picture for 2024. But by protecting Abel and McGarry at this deadline, the Phillies maintained their talent and also the possibility of cashing in one of them at a later date.

“Will [Painter’s status] affect us as we look forward to next year? I have no idea,” Dombrowski said. “Aaron is a free agent. Do we re-sign him? How do our young pitchers progress the rest of the year — Abel and McGarry, other starting pitchers we have? Whatever else takes place. I can’t really speak to the long-term yet.”