Three trade proposals that could address some of the Phillies’ biggest needs before the deadline

For weeks leading up to the trade deadline last year, the Phillies identified back-of-the-rotation starting pitching as their biggest need. But as the market took shape and the asking prices for pitching soared, they bolstered the roster in other areas, notably center field (Brandon Marsh), the bullpen (David Robertson), and the bench (Edmundo Sosa).

Then, 15 minutes before the deadline-day buzzer, the Angels called back with a reasonable offer for Noah Syndergaard, and just like that, the Phillies found a No. 5 starter.

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It was typical of trade season. There are always plot twists. Reality sets in for teams on the outskirts of wild-card contention, and buyers become sellers. Injuries change teams’ priorities. And just when it seems to make sense ... surprise! ... a division leader flips its closer. (Remember the Brewers and Josh Hader?)

Conditions can change five minutes before the deadline, no less 5½ weeks out. So, consider this less an early prediction of what Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will do before Aug. 1 at 6 p.m. — or even a primer on what he may do — than a thought exercise in the types of moves that might be available.

First, let’s consider the Phillies’ biggest weaknesses:

Now, two variables that may not be resolved before Aug. 1:

And then there are market dynamics that have many team executives fearing the deadline will be a dud.

Entering the weekend, only eight teams were more than five games back in both the division and wild-card races. Of those, the rebuilding Royals, Athletics, and Nationals don’t have much to sell. Neither do the Rockies, who, as one NL executive noted recently, rarely sell even when they do have valuable assets.

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The other four clubs — the Mets, Padres, Cardinals, and White Sox — are unpredictable. The Mets and Padres rank first and third, respectively, in payroll and would be admitting massive errors in judgment if they sell off parts. The Cardinals might be buried in the flat NL Central, but after 15 consecutive winning seasons, is it in their DNA to sell? The AL Central is even weaker, so the White Sox will likely hold off until their situation is hopeless.

“We’ve talked about it internally that, if the two Centrals don’t get away, at least four if not five of those teams may be trying to stay in,” the NL executive said. “That’s going to leave the four other divisions, and there’s a lot of really good teams in those divisions.”

Taking into account all of those factors — and based on what we know of the Phillies’ needs, their previous interests, and how they regard their best prospects — we took a swing at three trade proposals and ran them through the simulator at the addictive, if inexact, Baseball Trade Values.

Think of this as the cousin of last year’s deadline deal that netted rental reliever Robertson from the Cubs for breakout pitching prospect Ben Brown.

The Phillies have taken Painter and fellow pitching prospects Mick Abel and Griff McGarry off the table in previous trade talks. But they moved Brown, a former 33rd-round pick who put up big strikeout numbers in A-ball and was on the verge of moving up to double A, for a veteran late-inning arm.

It worked in the short term. Robertson had a 2.70 ERA down the stretch, and despite missing the divisional round after straining his hamstring while celebrating Harper’s homer in Game 2 of the wild-card series (seriously), he came back for a tightrope-walking save in Game 1 of the World Series in Houston. Long-term: advantage, Cubs. Robertson left as a free agent, and Brown is in triple A as one of the Cubs’ top prospects.

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Kerkering is the new Brown — a fifth-round pick last year with high-90s heat, a 1.01 ERA, and 43 strikeouts in 26⅔ innings in A-ball through Thursday. But he’s a 22-year-old reliever with upside who hasn’t pitched in double A yet.

Duvall, 34, is back from a wrist injury and doing what he does: mashing lefties (righties, too, this season). He’s a free agent after the season and a defensive upgrade in left field over Schwarber. Duvall also hit 16 homers and slugged .513 after being acquired at the 2021 deadline by the World Series-winning Braves.

But Duvall-to-the-Phillies would require the Red Sox to fall out of the wild-card race and Harper to be able to play first base. He threw from 120 feet this week, his longest distance yet, and throws from first base are shorter than from the outfield. If he can play first after the All-Star break, it would open left field for a right-handed hitter who could give the Phillies more thump against lefties.

Sounds a lot like Duvall. Others to watch: Teoscar Hernández (Mariners) and Randal Grichuk (Rockies).

The Phillies didn’t go to the top of the pitching market last season for Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas. It’s doubtful they would do so this year, either. Because unless one of their front four starters (Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, or Taijuan Walker) gets injured, the returns for Lucas Giolito, Marcus Stroman, and Eduardo Rodriguez — and certainly Shane Bieber, if the Guardians move him — figure to be quite high.

Flaherty, 27, is in the second or third tier of potentially available pitchers. He’s a free agent after the season, four years removed from a fourth-place Cy Young finish, and was slowed by injuries over the last few seasons. He also leads the majors in walks and has alternated solid five-start stretches with periods of struggle.

There’s always the possibility that Flaherty catches a hot streak down the stretch. For that alone, he’s worth a flier as a No. 5 starter with much higher upside.

O’Neill hasn’t played since early May because of a back injury, but is expected to return to a crowded Cardinals outfield. His right-handed power is undeniable (34 homers in 2021, 14 last year). He’s also a solid defender and under control through 2024. And he may be a change-of-scenery candidate after quarreling early in the season with Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol.

Dombrowski’s long history of dealing suggests a willingness to trade from what he views as a positional surplus. The Phillies are flush with young center fielders, from the majors (Marsh and Cristian Pache) to triple A (Símon Muzziotti), double A (Rojas), and single A (Justin Crawford). It wouldn’t be a surprise to see one of them on the move.

For a change, the Phillies don’t have to prioritize bullpen help at the deadline. But if, as expected, starting pitching is at a premium, they may decide that adding another reliever is the best way to strengthen the overall pitching staff.

And just in case they didn’t already have the market cornered on power-armed lefty relievers, how about adding Chapman to the ranks of José Alvarado and Gregory Soto?

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Chapman, 35, has been effective, too, with a 2.84 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 25⅓ innings through Thursday. Dombrowski loves power arms, and there figure to be several from which to choose, including right-handers Joe Kelly (White Sox) and Jordan Hicks (Cardinals).

Painter, as ever, is the X-factor. If he’s able to pitch by August, he may be the back-end starter that the Phillies need. And if there isn’t time to stretch out his arm for five or six innings, could he be David Price, circa 2008, and make an impact out of the bullpen?

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