Phillies trade deadline: Pitching is a need, not a reality after Max Scherzer/David Robertson deals

The biggest thing to fear at the trade deadline: a false sense of security with the Phillies pitching staff.

The second biggest thing to fear: their only option might be hope.

Both of these things were true even before this weekend, when the Phillies allowed 12 runs in two days to a Pirates lineup that had been among the worst in the sport. The bottom-line numbers have looked pretty good for the last couple of months. But this is one of those situations where the whole exceeds the sum of the parts.

Reality is, the Phillies have two fewer top-line arms than they did at this time last year. That could easily become three, depending on where Craig Kimbrel goes from here.

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Think back to the playoffs. Remember the formula. Two aces in the front of the rotation and two aces in the back of the bullpen. In their nine wins leading up to the World Series, Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, José Alvarado and Seranthony Domínguez combined to pitch 47⅓ of 81 innings while allowing just seven runs. Of that group, only Wheeler looks like a decent bet to give them a repeat.

Alvarado and Domínguez have combined to throw just 30⅔ innings since the end of April. Alvarado is on the injured list for the second time. Domínguez has failed to hold a lead in each of his first two outings back from a month-and-a-half absence of his own. That includes Sunday’s performance in which he faced five batters, recorded one out, and allowed a two-run homer to Bryan Reynolds. Meanwhile, Nola is coming off another abysmal outing. And has now allowed four-plus runs in half of his 22 starts.

Kimbrel’s resurgence has offset some of the regression from the incumbents. For the most part, he’s been as dominant as Alvarado and Domínguez were for most of last year’s stretch run. But he’s also been a lot more human lately.

In the two months leading up to the All-Star Break, Kimbrel allowed just three runs, five walks and 17 baserunners while striking out 40 in 25 innings. During that stretch, he was a perfect 11-for-11 in save opportunities. In eight innings since the break, he’s allowed two runs, four walks, and nine baserunners while striking out eight.

A quick look under the hood raises some more questions. His fastball is down a tick, averaging 95.3 mph post-All-Star break compared with 96.4 mph in the two months before. He’s also throwing it less: 60.6% of occasions, down from 72.5%. Meanwhile, his swing-and-miss rate has dropped from 34.5% to 19%.

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That’s a small sample size. The command is still there, as we saw on Sunday during his ninth-inning strikeout of Pirates rookie Henry Davis with men on first and second, nobody out and the score tied. But we’re approaching the time of year where things went sideways for Kimbrel in 2022 (23 SO/14 BB in his last 26 innings vs. 49/14 in his first 34). When it comes to older players, past performance is not always the strongest indicator of future results. Will Kimbrel be more like ‘22 Alvarado or ‘22 David Robertson over the last couple of months? That’s a big question.

An even bigger question is whether the Phillies can do anything except give Kimbrel and Nola the benefit of the doubt. There’s a reason for Dave Dombrowski’s approach during his first few Phillies trade deadlines. Top-line arms are incredibly expensive. They’re also incredibly contingent.

We saw both of those things in the Texas Rangers’ acquisition of Max Scherzer over the weekend. The Mets walked away with one of the better position prospects in the game in Luisangel Acuña. The younger (and smaller) brother of Braves dynamo Ronald Acuña, Luisangel is a Top 50-ish national prospect who FanGraphs estimates is now the No. 2 prospect in the Mets system. That’s a lot to give up for a year-and-a-half of a 38-year-old pitcher in the midst of his worst season in a decade.

Keep in mind, Scherzer has pretty much been Nola in terms of results this year. Since his 10-game sticky stuff suspension, he has a 4.08 ERA and 4.54 FIP while averaging less than six innings per start. He’s a fly-ball pitcher heading to a park where the fly balls land on the dark side of the fence far more often than they do at Citi Field.

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The Mets also landed a legitimate prospect in a separate deal for Robertson, who is only under contract through the end of this season and whose performance could easily turn the way it did last season. According to FanGraphs, infielder Marco Vargas was the Marlins ninth-best prospect and is now the Mets’ sixth-best.

That’s a pretty good indication of how cost-prohibitive the pitching market is going to be at this year’s trade deadline. If that’s the case, then their only choice is to look for a hitter who offers better value.