Phillies questions at midseason: Bryce Harper’s power outage, trade deadline outlook, and more

CHICAGO — The All-Star break, now less than two weeks away, symbolizes the halfway mark of the baseball season. But the mathematical midpoint — Game 81 out of 162 — will arrive Friday, as the Phillies return for a mini-homestand, three games against the Nationals at Citizens Bank Park.

“It’s gone by pretty quick,” Aaron Nola said.

Like an eyeblink.

At times, the Phillies’ pennant defense has felt like a car ride over the cobblestones in Old City: slow and bumpy. Rhys Hoskins’ season-ending knee injury late in spring training was less a pothole than a crater, from both a leadership and run-production perspective. The best players — Bryce Harper and Trea Turner — haven’t been the best players. At their low point, on June 2, the Phillies were seven games under .500 and tied for last place.

» READ MORE: Bryce Harper moves a step closer to taking over at first base for the Phillies

Since then, though, the Phillies were 17-5 entering Thursday night’s series finale against the Cubs at Wrigley Field and 42-37 overall, 10½ games behind the division-leading Braves but only two games out of a wild-card spot. They were on an 86-win pace with a minus-9 run differential.

Could it be better? Definitely. But the Phillies could also be the Mets.

“Well, we’re in a playoff hunt,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said this week. “We’re legitimately in a playoff hunt. And we’re playing much better baseball.”

Here, then, are a few lingering questions as the second half begins.

Through Wednesday, the Phillies ranked 20th in the majors with 85 home runs, 62 fewer than the Braves. One year after hitting 205 dingers, the Phillies were on pace for 176.

It’s unfair to pin it all on Harper. But he hadn’t gone deep in 27 games and 122 plate appearances, career-long dry spells, and was stuck on three homers in 209 plate appearances since his record-setting return from Tommy John elbow surgery. His exit velocity and hard-hit rate have been consistent, but he isn’t launching the ball in the air as often.

“I know the power’s going to come, and when it comes, I expect it to come in bunches,” manager Rob Thomson said. “We’re just waiting.”

» READ MORE: Bryce Harper not sweating his homer drought: ‘The power will come’

Meanwhile, the Phillies will look to add another hitter, likely from the right side, before the Aug. 1 trade deadline.

“I feel good about our offensive performers. I don’t feel great about our offensive numbers so far,” Dombrowski said. “I think we have the capability of being a much better offensive club than we are right now because I think some of our hitters have a chance of being better.”

The biggest reason for the June turnaround: starting pitching.

In 22 games through Wednesday, Phillies starters combined for a 2.24 ERA, 134 strikeouts, and only 33 walks while averaging nearly six innings per game. It isn’t only Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, either. Mid-rotation starters Ranger Suárez (1.08 ERA in his last five starts) and Taijuan Walker (0.69 ERA in four starts) have stabilized everything.

“I’ve got to pick it up a little more and be a little bit more consistent,” said Nola, who has a 4.51 ERA in 17 starts. “But those guys have been great. Our rotation has been rolling pretty well.”

» READ MORE: How the Phillies’ Taijuan Walker and Ranger Suárez have turned around their seasons

Said Dombrowski: “Any time I’ve been with a club that gets on a roll, it’s the starting pitching. You’ve got the big four, and then [Cristopher] Sánchez has thrown well the last couple outings. Hopefully he can continue to do that.”

But depth remains a problem. Injuries happen. Wheeler missed a month last season with elbow inflammation. If something like that happens again, the Phillies are ill-equipped to fill the gaps.

Which brings us to this ...

In the Phillies’ unspoken plan, the 20-year-old phenom would have opened the season in the rotation if not for a sprained elbow ligament in spring training. He’s building back up in Clearwater, Fla., but remains several weeks away from facing hitters.

Team officials remain optimistic that Painter will pitch this season and even make his major-league debut. The latter, at least, won’t happen until after the trade deadline, so the Phillies can’t count on Painter as a fifth-starter solution.

» READ MORE: Inside Andrew Painter's road back with the Phillies

Maybe Painter can come out of the bullpen, like David Price in 2008. Maybe he can make an impact as a late-season rotation addition.

Either way, he could be an X factor.

There have been snapshots of Turner’s impact. The game-tying two-run homer off Diamondbacks reliever José Ruiz on May 24. The four-hit, two-homer game June 5 against the Tigers. The back-to-back stolen bases that led to a run in the fifth inning Sunday against the Mets.

But whenever it looks like Turner is about to be, well, Turner, he falls back into a funk. Entering Thursday night, he was batting .246/.302/.382, including .211/.286/.390 against lefties. His career marks (.297/.350/.478 overall, .306/.365/.500) indicate the second half will be better than the first.

» READ MORE: As Trea Turner struggles, here’s how other notable free agents fared early in their Phillies careers

Rivals expect Dombrowski will be an opportunistic buyer, as usual. And he could move in multiple directions.

If Harper is able to move to a new position once he’s cleared to play defense in games — “I think he’ll be able to play first base,” Dombrowski said this week — it opens up other possibilities. The Phillies could finally get Kyle Schwarber out of left field and into the DH spot, then target an outfielder to upgrade the defense and provide more right-handed thump.

“It would be nice to get Schwarbs off his feet a little bit,” Dombrowski said.

With so many teams in contention for a wild-card spot, it’s shaping up as a seller’s market. The return for starting pitching, in particular, is expected to be high. Last year, the Phillies weren’t sure they could land a starter until striking a deal for Noah Syndergaard 15 minutes before the deadline, so they pivoted and picked up David Robertson to boost the bullpen. Maybe they’ll take a similar approach.

“We still have a lot of baseball left and ground to gain,” Nola said. “We’ve just got to keep competing and keep winning series.”

» READ MORE: Three trade proposals that could address some of the Phillies’ biggest needs