Jay Bruce deal shows it isn’t too soon for Phillies to think about trading for pitching, too | Scott Lauber

Matt Klentak will spend the first half of the week hunkered down in the draft room at Citizens Bank Park, as the Phillies decide which amateur players to bring into the organization. Beyond that, though, the general manager’s energy will be focused on one date on the calendar.

July 31.

Baseball’s traditional trade deadline is now its only trade deadline. A rules change before the season barred teams from making waiver trades in August, leaving the final day of July as the last, best chance for a serious contender to upgrade its roster significantly during the season and prompting speculation among executives across the league that trade talk will begin sooner than usual.

The Phillies got a jump on their fellow contenders Sunday by acquiring lefty-hitting slugger Jay Bruce from the Mariners, a trade that in years past might not have gone down until August, considering Seattle agreed to pay almost all of the roughly $21.3 million left on his contract. And there will be more where that came from. If Phillies owner John Middleton isn’t in playoffs-or-bust mode after going big in free agency, he’s pretty darned close.

Although they’ve been in first place for 37 consecutive days, the Phillies can improve at third base and center field, where they have gotten less than league-average offense. But with in-house solutions at those spots — Scott Kingery is getting more playing time at third base and center field, and top outfield prospect Adam Haseley was promoted to triple A last week — Klentak’s focus, according to sources, is now squarely on pitching, both starting and relief.

Here, then, are a few questions worth pondering as trade season begins:

It’s a virtual lock that the Giants will trade Madison Bumgarner and get on with their rebuild, although his no-trade clause could present an obstacle (he can block deals to eight teams, including the Phillies). Not only is the left-hander eligible for free agency after the season, but he also can stake a claim as the best postseason pitcher of his generation, having allowed one run in 36 innings across three World Series.

But Bumgarner will turn 30 on Aug. 1 and made only 38 starts in 2017 and 2018 because of injuries. He entered the weekend with a 4.01 ERA in 12 starts for the Giants, but his peripheral numbers (3.59 fielding independent pitching, 1.189 walks/hits per inning pitched, 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings) were more impressive.

“He’s gotten back a little more stuff and velocity since last year, but not what it once was,” one NL talent evaluator said. “He’s still the ultimate competitor, but more a 3 1/2-fourth starter and not the 1 or 2 he once was.”

The guess here is that a rent-a-pitcher with Bumgarner's playoff history will still net the Giants a decent return headlined by a solid prospect. Nick Williams might interest them in a package deal with the Phillies.

It’s all about the future in Toronto, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio and Danny Jansen in the big leagues and fellow prospect Bo Bichette soon to follow. But the Jays’ window to contend isn’t likely to open before right-handers Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez are eligible for free agency after the 2020 season.

Stroman is having the better season, but Sanchez is 14 months younger and has better overall stuff, albeit with a checkered injury history. Neither has been particularly consistent over the years, but both could benefit from escaping the Yankees-Red Sox-Rays gantlet of the American League East.

"At this point, I’d probably take Stroman," another NL talent evaluator said. "Sanchez has more upside, but so unreliable."

The Phillies will keep close tabs on Mike Minor after trying to trade for him during the offseason. The belief then was that the 31-year-old lefty would upgrade the middle of the rotation, and his strong start (2.74 ERA in 12 starts) has only strengthened that sentiment.

Here’s the tricky part: The Rangers are not yet a clear-cut seller, having outperformed their expectations through the season’s first two months. If they’re still within reach of a wild-card spot by early July, they could be compelled to hold on to their best pitcher. After all, Minor is signed through the end of next season.

Another lefty to watch: Detroit’s Matthew Boyd. But given that the 28-year-old is controllable through the 2022 season, the Tigers almost certainly will want to get an elite young hitter in return.

With David Robertson, Tommy Hunter, Victor Arano, Edubray Ramos, Pat Neshek and now left-hander Adam Morgan on the Phillies’ injured list, the bullpen is actually a more pressing need than the rotation.

“I know that Matt is always looking for help,” manager Gabe Kapler said.

But the cavalry might also be back before long. Kapler thinks Hunter and Ramos will return this month; Robertson could follow before the All-Star break.

Reds closer Raisel Iglesias figures to be a popular name before July 31. The Giants could move lefty Will Harris, and the Marlins could trade veteran Sergio Romo. But until more fence-sitting teams move into the realm of the deadline sellers, the relief market won’t really take shape.

Get ready to hear a lot about these guys.

Remnants of a free-agent market that opened seven months ago, Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel appear poised to sign with a team — finally! — because they no longer will be attached to draft-pick compensation and are expected to receive offers that align more closely with what they initially sought back in November.

There’s little doubt that Keuchel and Kimbrel would improve the Phillies’ rotation and bullpen, respectively. But while some teams might be more willing to improve their offers, the Phillies’ stance is thought to be unchanged, in that their interest is limited to a short term, preferably one year.

At long last, Keuchel and Kimbrel might get better offers than that.